Federal election 2025: Forde on a knife-edge, with Labor’s Rowan Holzberger ahead of incumbent Bert Van Manen

Labor leaders say the party is on track to win the seat of Forde, where northern Gold Coast booths have shown big swings red, saying it’s because the LNP have been “taking Gold Coasters for granted”. READ THE LATEST

Labor leaders say the party is on track to win the northern seat of Forde and are accusing the LNP of “taking Gold Coasters for granted”.

Forde MP Bert van Manen is facing the political fight of his life after his ALP opponent Rowan Holzberger secured 51.8 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

Scrutineers estimate there are about 8000 postal votes to be returned, and early counting shows only a few slightly favouring Mr van Manen – not enough to claw his way back.

Gold Coast-based Labor Senator Murray Watt on Monday was quietly confident about the result in Forde for the ALP.

“It’s particularly pleasing to see strong swings to Labor in the northern Gold Coast booths. We have invested a lot of time and energy to rebuild Labor’s stocks on the Coast,” Mr Watt said.

“So it’s terrific to see we will potentially convert that into winning a federal seat. This result is further proof that Gold Coasters don’t appreciate the LNP taking them for granted.

“The LNP have neglected the Coast for many years and just assume that Gold Coasters will keep voting for them. This result proves people want to see hard working members who deliver to their communities.”

Gold Coast-based Labor Senator Murray Watt on the pre-poll with Forde ALP candidate Rowan Holzberger and Labor supporters.

Mr Watt acknowledged the vote strengthened support from the Albanese Government for projects like the Coomera Connector.

“The Gold Coast is a growing city, especially in our north. Residents in those suburbs are crying out for new infrastructure to be provided,” he said.

“That’s why federal and State Labor have invested heavily in new roads, light rail, new hospitals and new schools. The LNP need to think twice before they take the axe to the infrastructure the Gold Coast desperately needs.”

Mayor Tom Tate supports Mr Watt’s call for more infrastructure but said he felt sorry for Mr van Manen, having regarded him as a hard working local MP.

He believes booths further north at Crestmead and Loganholme hurt the LNP.

“I was disappointed that neither leader visited the Gold Coast, Australia’s sixth largest city during the campaign. Gold Coast voters don’t want to be taken for granted by either party,” he said.

“And I’m certain they will be watching the Government and the Opposition over the next three years to understand their plans for our city, which continues to deliver above average population and economic growth. This growth must be supported by infrastructure.”

The swing of 5.99 per cent to Labor in Forde saw the ALP win booths at Upper Coomera North and Coomera Springs – the vote there improved by 7.16 per cent on 2022.

Labor Candidate for Forde Rowan Holzberger celebrates with supporters celebrate at the Beenleigh Tavern on Saturday night. Picture: Nigel Hallett.

The LNP vote was down by 7.38 per cent at the Ormeau booth.

Mr Holzberger, who lives in Beenleigh and works in Labor Opposition frontbencher Shannon Fentiman’s office, was pre-selected in July last year.

He doorknocked thousands of homes, and was a campaign veteran having run in Forde in 2022 and the state seats of Bonney in 2017 and Southport in 2015.

Mr Holzberger on Monday thanked voters who supported him and while admitting “the vote was close” said “it would be my honour to represent our community” in federal Labor’s team.

“Queenslanders have voted with our values this election. We want a stronger Medicare, more homes, cost of living relief and tax cuts for every taxpayer,” he said.

“The northern Gold Coast is one of our region’s big growth corridors, and under Labor we’ll see more free GPs, more affordable homes and fully funded schools.”

Mr van Manen did not return calls. The poll count could continue for more than a week.

Member for Forde Bert van Manen — waiting on final poll results. Picture: Supplied.

Further south there continued to be a swing against the LNP in strongly conservative seats like Fadden, where Labor improved its vote by 2.98 per cent. In Moncrieff, Labor’s margin increased by 1.54 per cent.

Senator Watt said the results in Forde and McPherson, where Labor candidate Alice Price (23 per cent) on the primary vote outpolled Teal candidate Erchana Murray-Bartlett (14.58 per cent), showed Coast residents wanted further investment in front line services.

“The strong result for Labor on the Gold Coast shows Gold Coasters want more investment in services they need like Medicare, and they reacted against the LNP’s plan to cut those services, to cut wages and bring in bans on working from home,” he said.

Flashback to 2022: Anthony Albanese, then Opposition leader, with Rowan Holzberger at Shailer Park State High School. Picture: NCA NewsWire / John Gass.

ALP analysis shows there were good swings in “commuter suburbs” where residents were working from home for one or two days a week.

“They heard Peter Dutton’s message as a black mark against them for wanting to have some work life balance,” Mr Watt said.

Fadden LNP MP Cameron Caldwell, in a Facebook post, thanked voters and committed to playing a robust role in the new Opposition.

“The broader message of this election is not lost on me – delivered with the loss of many of my colleagues and friends from their positions,” he said.

“I commit to ensuring that our party hears the message that Australians have sent us.”

EARLIER: SEAT ON A KNIFE-EDGE

The seat of Forde, which partially covers the Gold Coast’s most northern suburbs, is on a knife-edge, with Labor poised for a potential surprise victory in the once-safe LNP stronghold.

Perennial Labor candidate Rowan Holzberger is on track to deny long-time LNP MP Bert Van Manen a sixth term in parliament.

Mr Van Manen, who went to ground on Sunday and did not respond to calls by the Bulletin, had held the seat, which covers Logan and the northern Gold Coast, south to Upper Coomera, since 2010.

Rowan Holzberger - Labor Candidate for Forde and supporters celebrated at Beenleigh Tavern Saturday night. Picture: Nigel Hallett

While leading the LNP 51.8 per cent to 48.2 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, Mr Holzberger said on Sunday he was not prepared to declare victory, with counting set to continue into the week.

“The count is still too close to call, but I want to thank every person in Forde who put their confidence in me,” he said.

“Australians have chosen the Labor way and it would be my honour to represent our community as part of Anthony Albanese’s federal Labor team.

“Queenslanders have voted with our values this election. We want a stronger Medicare, more homes, cost-of-living relief and tax cuts for every taxpayer.”

Member for Forde Bert van Manen. Picture: Supplied

Mr Holzberger has been a mainstay of Labor’s Gold Coast campaigns for more than a decade, though has come up short each time.

He has also worked as a staffer for Senator Murray Watt.

He contested the state seat of Southport in 2015 and Bonney in 2017 before running unsuccessfully in Forde in 2022.

It’s not the first time Forde voters have swung behind Labor, with the party representing it for nearly a decade from the late 1980s until the mid-1990s.

Labor won it again with Brett Raguse in 2007 during Kevin Rudd’s landslide win but the seat was lost in 2010 to Mr Van Manen, who survived several close calls before Forde became a safe LNP seat in 2019.

His vote declined at the 2022 poll, rendering it marginal again.