BOM’s tropical sponge cake cyclone theory as La Nina fizzes

After predicting possible cyclones for FNQ due to La Nina, the Bureau of Meteorology likened the chance of a cyclone sweeping across Cairns to baking a sponge cake – flop, fizz or rise.

A SENIOR Bureau of Meteorology forecaster said that while La Nina has so far failed to produce a tropical cyclone across FNQ landmass, Cairns residents should remain prepared.

BOM meteorologist Helen Kirkup said the Cairns region “had all the ingredients,” for a cyclone and compared the chance of one hitting Far North Queensland to that of two people baking a sponge cake and getting very different results.

“La Nina does increase the likely number of cyclones and we have not had them impact the land area,” she said.

“Statistically you get slightly higher numbers of cyclones during La Nina years.

“February and March is the peak cyclone time for FNQ, but will a TC form soon and then cross the Cairns coast is not out of the question and you should be prepared.”

But Ms Kirkup said the possibility of a cyclone rolling across Cairns during the next week was low.

She likened the formation of a cyclone to that of a perfect light and fluffy sponge versus a rock cake although they have similar contents.

“At the moment we are thinking as we get through the weekend and into next week we may see some development of a monsoon trough cross the region,” she said.

“There’s a couple of tropical lows, one over the Timor Sea and one out over the Coral Sea, but there are so many variables which need to line up including upper level winds, sea temperatures and thunderstorms which need to start rotating.

“It’s like if two people want to bake a light sponge cake, you both use the same ingredients but different mixing methods and oven temperatures can produce very different outcomes”

A new Bureau of Meteorology prediction tool could be the Tropical Sponge Cake Cyclone Theory to explain why cyclones do not always result even though conditions indicate their possible formation.

While the ‘tropical sponge cake cyclone theory’ has yet to be formally adopted by the BOM, Ms Kirkup said the region is predicted to have light rain most days until the end of the month.

“At the moment this monsoon trough may develop and we may see a low spin up in the gulf or Arafura Sea to the north of the gulf,” Ms Kirkup said.

“It may go on an eastern trajectory but we are unsure if it will develop.”

Ms Kirkup said Cairns resident can expect, “a chance of showers every day.”

“Over Cairns in the last week 72mm of rain fell, but when you look at Innisfail there was 200mm,” she said.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday the state government announced that disaster assistance has been extended to Hope Vale Aboriginal Shire Council to assist restoring damaged public infrastructure after it was affected by Tropical Cyclone Tiffany last month.

Assistance is being provided through the jointly funded Commonwealth-State Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements (DRFA) and is already available in the Cook and Douglas Shire Councils.

A range of DRFA assistance is now available in three local council areas in the Far North which consist of the Cook and Douglas Shire Councils and now Hope Vale Aboriginal Shire Council.

Information on disaster assistance can be found on the Australian Government’s website at www.disasterassist.gov.au and the Queensland Reconstruction Authority’s website at www.qra.qld.gov.au

Originally published as BOM’s tropical sponge cake cyclone theory as La Nina fizzes