ASX Trader: Stocks hot or not, ASX 200 poised for breakout after 15 years

After 15 years of hitting the same ceiling, the ASX 200 stands on the brink of a breakthrough that could reshape Australian investors' fortunes, writes ASX Trader.

ASX Trader has called his bulls and bears of the share market.

The ASX 200 is pressing against the ceiling where sellers have stepped in for more than 15 years. If September closes green, defying its “red month” reputation, it could finally break free, sparking the strongest bull run Australian investors have seen since 2003.

The ASX 200 is pressing against the ceiling where sellers have stepped in for more than 15 years. If September closes green, defying its “red month” reputation, it could finally break free, sparking the strongest bull run Australian investors have seen since 2003.

The Australian share market may be on the verge of its biggest shift in a generation. Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the ASX 200 has been bouncing between two invisible guardrails, buyers stepping in at the lows, sellers pushing back at the highs. Now, in September 2025, the index sits once again at that major resistance level. With just two weeks until the quarterly close, all eyes are on whether this time the buyers will be strong enough to break the cycle.

Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the ASX 200 has been bouncing between two invisible guardrails.

What’s a Channel?

Think of the ASX 200 as a ball bouncing between two rails. For the past 15 years, whenever the market has reached the top rail, sellers have stepped in, taking profits and pushing prices back down. When it’s fallen to the bottom rail, buyers have reappeared, snapping up bargains and sending prices higher again.

The bottom rail was set during the 2008 crash, and since then the top has acted like a ceiling tested many times but never broken. Right now, the index is once again pressing against that ceiling. If buyers prove stronger than sellers this time, we could finally see the breakout investors have been waiting for.

The September Test

There’s an added twist. September is often a “red month” for shares historically one of the weakest on the calendar. But if the ASX 200 can close this September in the green, it would buck the seasonal trend and send a powerful signal: momentum is strong, and a breakout may be just around the corner.

Why It Matters

For everyday investors, that means more opportunities, stronger returns, and renewed confidence in Australian shares. Of course, no move is ever guaranteed, global shocks or sudden interest rate changes could still knock markets off course. But right now, the signs are pointing up. For years, many commentators have said you needed to look outside Australia to find the best returns. That could be about to change. If the ASX 200 finally breaks out of its 15-year range, the coming decade may prove that world-class returns can be found right here at home.

Which ASX Sectors Are Hot And Which Are Not

While the ASX 200 is pressing against long-term resistance, different sectors are telling their own stories. Here’s how each major group of companies is performing on the big picture.

Financials (XFJ) – Currently Bullish but Extended

The big four banks CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac have been powering ahead, with cost-cutting and efficiency gains boosting investor confidence. However, prices now look stretched on the monthly chart, suggesting the sector will need to cool off or consolidate soon.

Materials (XMJ) – Neutral with very Bullish Potential

The materials sector has been locked in a sideways range for the past five years, but the chart paints an encouraging picture. The old GFC peak has flipped from resistance into a solid support base, holding firm through this entire 5 year period. Big money looks to be accumulating commodities. A decisive move above the 19,600 level would likely turn the sector from neutral to strongly bullish, paving the way for a powerful next leg higher.

Energy (XEJ) – Bearish, But Watching for a Major Shift

The energy sector has been in a bearish trend since 2008, While it remains firmly on the back foot for now, the key technical level to watch is 12,000. A decisive break above that mark would flip the long-term picture from bearish to bullish not there yet, but the potential for a turnaround in the next couple of years is building. Remember no sector goes down forever. This will be a major turnaround story in coming years.

The big banks remain a bullish proposition, according to ASX Trader. Picture: NCA Newswire

Information Technology (XIJ) – Bullish but Stretched

The tech sector is in a bullish trend, but the current rally looks very extended on the charts. Momentum remains positive, yet it’s not where the best opportunities lie right now. A cooling-off period or pullback would be healthy before a more attractive entry point emerges.

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) – Bullish but Overextended

The consumer discretionary sector has been powering higher, showing strong bullish momentum. However, on the monthly chart it looks quite stretched. While the trend remains positive, the best opportunities may come after a period of cooling or consolidation rather than chasing prices at current levels.

Healthcare (XHJ) – Neutral, Building Energy

The healthcare sector has been range-bound for nearly six years, trading sideways without a clear trend. But long consolidations often lead to powerful moves, and the longer this base builds, the stronger the breakout is likely to be. A break above 47,000 would mark the start of its next bull market phase.

Real Estate (XPJ) – Bullish and Overlooked

Still down around 25% from its 2008 GFC highs, the real estate sector has quietly been in a steady uptrend. Despite this progress, it remains one of the more overlooked areas of the market. With the right conditions, XPJ could surprise to the upside and deliver strong returns as it continues to rebuild toward those long-term levels.

It’s worth keeping an eye on consumer staples. Picture: NewsWire

Consumer Staples (XSJ) – Bearish but on the Watchlist

The consumer staples sector has been in a bearish phase since 2021, unable to regain momentum. While it’s not bullish at present, the key level to watch is 13,000. A breakout above that mark would likely ignite the next multi-year bull run in staples. It’s one to keep a close eye on heading into 2026.

Communication Services (XTJ) – Bullish with Ideal Entry Lower

The communications sector is in a bullish trend, but chasing strength here may not be the best play. A healthy pullback into the 1,700–1,800 zone would offer a far more attractive entry point, setting up the sector for its next leg higher with a stronger risk-to-reward profile.

Industrials (XNJ) – Bullish but Extended

The industrials sector has been bullish, with momentum pushing strongly higher. This year it finally achieved a major milestone by breaking through the old GFC highs, a resistance level that had capped prices for more than a decade. While the trend is clearly positive, the sector now looks a little stretched. A healthy pullback into the 7,500–7,800 zone would provide a much better entry point for long-term investors.

Utilities (XUJ) – Very bullish – My Favourite Risk-to-Reward

The utilities sector has been consolidating under the 9,000 level since 2017. This year it finally broke through, flipping that major resistance into solid support, turning former sellers into committed buyers. That kind of structural shift is powerful, and it makes me very bullish on the sector’s future especially after 8 years of consolidation. What I love most is that almost nobody is talking about it, which often sets up the best opportunities.

The utilities sector has been consolidating under the 9,000 level since 2017.

The Big Picture

Leading the charge but extended: Information Technology (XIJ), Financials (XFJ), Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), Communications (XTJ), Industrials (XNJ)

Bullish: Real Estate (XPJ), and now Utilities (XUJ).

Bearish: Consumer Staples (XSJ) and Energy (XEJ).

Steady hands: Materials (XMJ), and Healthcare (XHJ).

Together, these trends explain why the ASX 200 is sitting at such a crucial moment. If the strong sectors keep pulling their weight and if September closes green the index could finally smash through its 15-year ceiling.

For everyday Australians, this isn’t just numbers on a screen. The ASX 200’s next move could shape superannuation balances, investment returns, and household confidence for years to come. Right now, all eyes are on whether the market can turn a historically weak month into the launch pad for a new era of growth.