ASX Trader: Gold’s glory days numbered? Why this could be final surge before steep drop

Gold is set for one final push before a deep correction which will reset the cycle. While investors should act with caution, there’s a significant rotation in play with other metals, writes ASX Trader.

Back on April 25th, I wrote that gold’s rally was due for a pause.

Not a crash, but a consolidation.

The yellow metal had surged to record highs and in classic Elliott Wave fashion, I suggested we were entering a Wave 4 triangle, a coiling pattern where price digests gains before the final thrust higher.

At the same time, I pointed to a theme often overlooked in precious metals markets: capital rotation.

Just as Bitcoin consolidates in a bull market while capital spills into altcoins, I argued gold would step aside in the short term while silver, platinum, and miners picked up the slack.

That original call is here: April 25th X post.

Now, four months later, the thesis has played out with striking precision.

After months of sideways movement, gold is headed for a final breakout.

Gold: A Textbook Pause

Since late April, gold had traded sideways, locked between roughly $3,200 and $3,400USD per ounce.

It remains firmly higher on the year around 29 per cent with more than 20 record closes but the pace had slowed.

The market formed a textbook triangle consolidation, consistent with Wave 4 behaviour: a pause, not a breakdown.

This pause has also provided space for sentiment to cool which was a necessary reset if the metal is to sustain a durable bull trend in the years ahead.

Investors should treat gold’s final push with caution.

Silver: Divergence at work

The first sign of rotation was in silver.

In April, gold printed red candles (red box) while silver stayed neutral (Orange box), a divergence I highlighted as meaningful.

Since then, silver has gone on to outperform in stretches, overtaking gold in percentage gains. This wasn’t a coincidence.

It was capital reallocating within the sector, confirming that money wasn’t leaving metals, it was moving where relative value existed.

Silver has gone on to outperform gold recently.

Platinum: The breakout winner

Perhaps the biggest surprise to casual observers has been platinum’s performance.

Languishing for decades, platinum was primed for capital inflows.

Since April, it has surged roughly 50 per cent year-to-date, easily outpacing both gold and silver.

This was exactly the type of under-the-radar rotation I pointed to in April.

Platinum became the star performer of 2025’s precious metals complex as I wrote here.

Miners: Late but leverage

Gold miners, measured by the GDX ETF, also joined the rotation.

After lagging bullion for much of the rally, miners have risen around 35 per cent since April 2025.

For traders seeking leveraged exposure to the metals story, miners finally provided it.

While gold went sideways the miners kept climbing higher.

I wrote about this opportunity on March 13 and since then they are up over 55 per cent.

Even more telling: this move occurred with limited inflows.

In other words, smart money was positioning early, another classic sign of rotation.

How gold miners have fared.

What comes next

The big question now: where does gold go from here?

The technicals suggest one final leg higher.

The triangle just broke out, and a breakout will trap late sellers and fuel a thrust into new highs.

But this is likely to be the last move before a much deeper correction.

That doesn’t mean the bull market is over.

On the contrary, the macro structure remains firmly very bullish.

Long-term drivers, monetary policy, geopolitical risk, and central bank demand are still in place.

But sentiment has become stretched, and markets never move in straight lines.

Once this final push is complete, I expect a sharper reset: a correction that cools enthusiasm and rebalances positioning before the next true bull leg begins.

The lesson

Back in April, the message was simple: “The trade isn’t over - it’s just shifting.”

That rotation has now played out across silver, platinum, and miners exactly as outlined.

The next message is equally clear: this last move higher in gold should be treated with caution.

For investors, it is not the end of the bull market but it may be the prelude to the most important sentiment reset of the cycle.