ASX Trader: What comes after Bitcoin’s capitulation will be enormous

I flagged Bitcoin’s looming crash four weeks ago. Shell-shocked investors missed these warning signs. The plunge is clearing out the weak. What comes next will be historic, writes ASX Trader.

David Bird, aka ASX Trader, called the Bitcoin dive four weeks ago.

A month ago on October 27th, with Bitcoin trading around $116,000 I published an article - ‘Classic warning sign Bitcoin’s record run is about to end’ - warning that a major correction in BTC was imminent.

I laid out the structural cracks, the macro pressures, and the weakening technicals that were all converging into a high-risk environment.

I said clearly that a sharp drop was coming.

Four weeks later, Bitcoin is now more than 25 per cent lower.

Bitcoin’s dive since ASX Trader called it on October 27.

All weekend, as I spoke on stage in Sydney at AusCryptoCon, I could feel the shock in the room.

Last year, the vibe was completely different.

People were electric. Confident. Almost euphoric.

Conversations backstage and in the crowd revolved around one theme:

“We’re about to hit 100K Bitcoin. The halving is coming. Next year will be massive.”

This year… none of that was there.

Instead, investors were confused.

They weren’t just disappointed by the lack of blow-off exuberance - they were bewildered. Many quietly confessed they never expected this cycle to feel so underwhelming, so inconsistent, or so punishing.

Everyone kept asking me the same thing:

“What happened?”

Well, let me explain because this cycle has not been confusing at all if you’ve been following the data instead of the narratives.

David Bird, aka ASX Trader, speaking at the Australian Crypto Convention

This Halving Cycle Was Always Going to Break the Pattern

In 2022, I wrote in detail about why this cycle would not follow the traditional halving pattern. I projected a bear market roughly three times longer than previous ones.

Many dismissed the idea.

The charts showing the halving cycles.

But markets follow human patterns:

1. First time: nobody recognises it.

2. Second time: a few sharp people notice.

3. Third time: everyone notices.

4. Fourth time: it breaks.

By the time the 2021 peak happened, the halving was no longer an edge - it was mass psychology.

People expected it. And when everyone expects something in the market they use it against you.

That’s why I called for a B-wave trap in 2023–2024 - where sentiment turns euphoric, altcoins run, and people believe the bull market has returned, but structurally nothing has changed.

And that’s exactly what happened.

The B-Wave Trap: The Rally That Fooled Everyone

Between mid-2023 and early 2024, the crypto market gave investors a perfect B-wave trap:

• Bitcoin ETFs triggered a frenzy

• Meme coins surged

• Altcoins pumped

• Influencers shouted about “the supercycle”

• Sentiment spiked into extreme greed

• Trump memecoins took off

• Many believed 100K was imminent

But this wasn’t a new bull market, it was a counter-trend corrective wave inside a much larger ABC structure.

That’s why rallies felt explosive but short-lived. That’s why breakouts failed. That’s why the emotional highs didn’t stick.

We weren’t in a bull market.

We were in the middle of a correction.

Once you understand that, the underwhelming results of this cycle make perfect sense.

Altcoins Haven’t Been in a Bull Market Since 2021

Nearly every altcoin chart tells the same story:

• A-wave down from 2021

• B-wave false rally in 2023–2024

• Now deep in the C-wave capitulation

Every pump you’ve seen since 2021 has been a counter-trend rally, not the start of alt season. That’s why altcoins are down 80–90+ per cent from local highs even though Bitcoin made new yearly highs.

Until altcoin dominance turns structurally bullish, you cannot have a real alt-season.

The problem isn’t the cycle.

The problem is expectations.

MicroStrategy Was the Real Blow-Off Top - Not Bitcoin

Another signal most investors missed was the blow-off top in MicroStrategy - the most leveraged Bitcoin proxy in existence.

MicroStrategy formed a perfect exhaustion pattern:

• Gap-up

• Doji

• Sharp reversal

• Bearish divergence

• Breakdown in relative strength

That was the euphoric peak everyone was looking for. It simply happened on the wrong chart. When MicroStrategy topped, the cycle topped.

But most investors were staring exclusively at Bitcoin, waiting for fireworks that had already occurred.

David Bird’s advice to ‘trade what’s in front of you, not what you hope to see’

Bitcoin Is Not in a Bull Market If It Can’t Outperform Gold

To evaluate Bitcoin’s true strength, you must compare it to gold.

Historically, every real Bitcoin bull market has:

• Outperformed gold

• Broken structural resistance

• Triggered long-term trend continuation

This cycle, Bitcoin did none of those things.

Bitcoin’s ratio versus gold has been stuck in a sideways corrective range.

Structurally, BTC is not in a sustained bull trend until that ratio breaks decisively.

If Bitcoin isn’t beating gold, the “bull market” is not real.

Gold against Bitcoin

Why I Sold in 2021 - And Why I Haven’t Bought Back Yet

When I exited crypto in November 2021, many people assumed I was bearish on the future of the asset class. That wasn’t the case at all.

I simply understood where we were in the cycle.

At the bottom of the previous cycle, my portfolio was:

• 70 per cent Bitcoin

• 30 per cent altcoins

But by the 2021 peak, altcoins massively outperformed, and my portfolio naturally shifted to:

• 20 per cent Bitcoin

• 80 per cent altcoins

So selling at that point wasn’t about timing perfection, it was about protecting capital.

I’ve “missed” around 37 per cent of Bitcoin gains since then which is roughly 8 per cent compounded per year. That’s nothing compared to what I avoided:

• 90–99 per cent altcoin collapses

• Multi-year drawdowns

• Failed projects

• Liquidity destruction

I rotated into assets that performed better in a tightening macro environment - gold, silver, uranium and commodities and I have no regrets.

And when this correction completes, I will rotate back into crypto aggressively.

Where We Are Now: The Necessary Pain

Today, we are deep in the C-wave capitulation - the part of the cycle where people break psychologically.

You can see it clearly:

• Lost major support zones

• Failed retests

• Rising stablecoin dominance

• Weakening momentum

• Confusion and fear everywhere

This is exactly what capitulation looks like.

There is a low-probability scenario where Bitcoin spikes toward 145K as a final trap, and I always leave room for that possibility.

But structurally, the dominant trend on the large time frames remains to the downside.

This is the “two steps back” portion of the multi-decade cycle.

The Good News: What Comes After This Will Be Enormous

What feels catastrophic to many investors is actually the set up for something far bigger.

We’re wiping out the excess.

We’re clearing the weak hands.

We’re resetting valuations.

We’re laying the foundation for the next true secular wave.

Just as the early 2000s tech crash paved the way for the next 20 years of internet dominance, this correction is preparing blockchain for its next era.

When the bottom finally forms:

• The strongest projects will survive

• Institutional liquidity will return

• Adoption will accelerate

• A multi-decade growth cycle will begin

This is where generational opportunities emerge.

This Isn’t the End - This Is the Education Phase

If this cycle has blindsided you, it isn’t because you’re unlucky.

It’s because most investors were never taught how real market structures work.

Markets don’t go straight up.

They don’t follow simple “halving equals bull” formulas.

They don’t reward crowds who rely on hope instead of data.

They move:

Three steps forward, two steps back.

Right now is the “two steps back.”

What comes next - the next three steps forward - will likely be extraordinary.

The people who prepare now, who study the cycle instead of fighting it, will be the ones positioned well.

And when that time comes, I’ll be right there loading up because the next major crypto cycle won’t just be big.

It will be historic.