ASX Trader: Classic warning sign Bitcoin’s record run is about to end

Bitcoin is standing at a pivotal moment - will it continue its record run or is it out of steam? The warning signs are flashing things are about to go south, writes ASX Trader.

Is Bitcoin dead?

It’s been pronounced dead more times than I can count.

Every few years, the headlines resurface, the obituaries are written, and the sceptics return for another victory lap.

Yet somehow, Bitcoin refuses to stay buried.

Time and again, it rises moving to a rhythm the market pretends not to hear.

Beneath the noise of regulation, hype, and speculation, a steady pulse beats on: the halving cycle.

It’s the metronome of Bitcoin’s destiny, cutting supply, fuelling euphoria, and then humbling excess with mathematical precision.

Narratives change, sentiment swings, but through every storm and mania, one truth remains that the halving cycle never lies.

Is Bitcoin exhausted or will it surge again? David Bird, aka ASX Trader, says it stands at a pivotal point.

The halving cycle never lies

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a remarkably consistent four-year rhythm driven by its halving cycle, the programmed reduction in mining rewards that cuts new supply in half and has preceded every major bull run in its history.

Each cycle has averaged 1,064 days of bullish expansion followed by 364 days of decline, and this current one has been no exception: the halving has led to a top exactly on October 6, 2025, perfectly matching historical timing.

Coincidence? Perhaps.

But for those who understand the cyclical nature of markets, it’s hard not to ignore the rhythm repeating itself yet again.

The key question now is whether this October high marks the major cycle top or merely an intermediate pause before Bitcoin’s next leg higher, yet if history is any guide, the pattern may continue to unfold with uncanny precision.

How the halving cycles have unfolded.

Chat on Reddit in 2023 about the Bitcoin top on October 6, 2025.

What the charts are saying

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently sitting on major channel support, a critical level that’s acted as a floor for the entire structure of this cycle.

If it holds, the market remains in a healthy consolidation phase.

If it breaks below the $93,000 level, however, that would represent a clear change in market structure, signalling that the trend may be exhausted for now.

Momentum tells part of the story too.

The RSI is flashing bearish divergence, meaning price made a higher high, but momentum didn’t follow.

That’s a classic early warning of exhaustion, and something that traders should pay close attention to in the weeks ahead.

The microstrategy warning signal

Now here’s where it gets really interesting.

MicroStrategy (MSTR), effectively a leveraged bet on Bitcoin has long been the canary in the coal mine for the crypto market.

Since it began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020, its share price has outperformed the asset itself by a wide margin up over 3,800 per cent, compared to Bitcoin’s 700 per cent gain from the lows in 2022.

But on this latest rally, something shifted.

Bitcoin pushed to new highs… and MicroStrategy didn’t.

It printed a lower high instead.

In classical Dow Theory, this is known as a non-confirmation. “Indices must confirm” meaning that related markets should move together to validate the trend.

When one fails to confirm the other, it often precedes a turning point.

Couple that with the bearish RSI divergence on both Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, and you’ve got a chart flashing weakening momentum under the surface.

Microstrategy charts.

And here’s something nobody’s talking about

For the first time ever in a bull run, Bitcoin hasn’t made a new high against gold, in what’s supposed to be a bull market.

In fact, it’s been in a bear market against gold since March 2021.

And here’s the irony, the very system Bitcoin aims to debunk (fiat USD) is the one everyone measures it in.

Measure it in gold, the asset it was designed to outperform, and you’ll see its true store of value.

Bitcoin against gold.

Where we stand now

Right now, Bitcoin stands at a pivotal moment.

The halving rhythm remains intact, with the cycle unfolding almost perfectly to script and the market’s energy is showing signs of fatigue.

Momentum is slowing, divergences are emerging, and key supports are being retested.

If Bitcoin can defend the $93,000 level and regain upward momentum, it may once again defy expectations and extend the cycle further.

But a decisive break below that structure would suggest the halving-driven bull run is finally nearing its end.

Bitcoin isn’t finished, far from it, but it may be pausing for healthy retracement to catch its breath before the next great move.