Census clues about who wants what from commercial, institutional properties of future

The Census shows that it’s not so much beanbags, free lunches and camaraderie that office workers in may want but rather buildings that can land them a better job down the track.

Australia’s census data can give us an idea of what the country’s buildings, and cities of the future, will require.

It is a question that should exercise the minds of those designing Australia’s commercial properties. Who will be working and, in some cases, living in these buildings? I am sure that developers deliver their chosen architects a full and well-researched brief.

However there is another way to understand the target market for commercial (and institutional) buildings: the census.

The relevant question asked by the August 2021 census is, where did you spend census night? And most Australians, in fact about 23 million reported that they spent census night in their own home. But many Australian residents spent census night elsewhere?

For example 172,000 residents of, and visitors to, the Australian continent spent census night in a hotel, motel or Airbnb. Most (3500) of these hotel-stayers were aged 28, although there was another peak in the age profile of hotel/motel guests at the age of 58 (3200).

The younger hotel-stayer might include a gen Z backpacker/visitor whereas the older hotel/motel guest is more likely to be a local on a work trip. (The census is purposely conducted midweek, midwinter outside school holidays.)

Hotels and motels are thus mostly used by those spanning the 28–58 stage in the life cycle.

However, we can take this analysis much further. Let’s look at the age profile of those most likely to work in a commercial office building. Take, for example, the occupations of solicitor and accountant.

At the time of the last Australian census in August 2021, there were 139,000 accountants in the country.

Some 70,000 Australians reported their occupation as solicitor at the most recent census. Accountants (general) were far more numerous at 139,000. These are the kind of workers that would largely work in city office towers (for, say, blue-chip tenants) together with a range of other skilled and support workers.

The age profile of solicitors is very different to that of accountants. The number of solicitors peaks at 2800 at age 26, and thereafter steadily declines. By age 60 there are barely 800 solicitors left in the workforce, according to the census.

The point being that being a qualified solicitor is a position that often leads to other aspirational jobs such as general manager and managing director. In some quarters, a law degree is regarded as a general qualification for access to a broad career in business.

The age profile of accountants, however, is different. Accountants tend to stick around (in their chosen occupation) throughout their 20s and 30s and then gradually seep out into other occupations in their early 40s – or at least that’s what appears to be happening when the accountant age profile is considered.

Peak solicitor is 26 (2800), however a peak (general) accountant is 38 (4500).

Accountants are, evidently, more likely than solicitors to remain in their chosen occupation for longer. This may be due to the fact that accountants prefer to hold out for a more senior opportunity (eg chief financial officer) whereas solicitors are more responsive to perceived career progression opportunities from a younger age.

bernard salt peak roles graphic

What this means is that accountants as a life form, as a species, will likely have a longer relationship with their workplace than solicitors. In a more transient workforce, workers may be more forgiving of building flaws, whereas for those in it for the long haul, building and design issues are more likely to matter.

Let’s take this analysis to industrial property, demand for which has burgeoned since the pandemic due to a rise in online shopping. More warehouse space has created a surge in demand for storeperson positions. There are, or were at the 2021 census, 135,000 people in storeperson jobs in Australia. There’s about as many storeperson jobs in Australia as there are (general) accountants.

The age profile of a storeperson peaks at 4700 at age 21 and thereafter steadily declines to barely 800 at age 65. A storeperson role is a job for the young, or so it would seem. However it may be that a storeperson is a general access job for a career in the logistics industry.

In due course, a 21-year old storeperson may identify other jobs like forklift driver, dispatch clerk and, with due training, moves on to something else (in logistics) that pays more.

In many ways, there’s a lot of similarity in the age profile and perhaps in the career trajectory of a storeperson and a solicitor. Both regard or have come to regard their workplace as a place of opportunity, of learning. They leverage and invest in skillsets via training in order to improve their overall position. Are there training rooms, skilling facilities, places where young workers can add value to their skillset in or close to modern industrial buildings?

And with the surge in demand for logistics buildings and workers, is there commensurate investment in skills straining facilities perhaps operated by TAFE, located in or near industrial precincts in our largest cities?

And then we come to what surely must be the building requirement of the coming decade: nursing home accommodation. There are or were at the 2021 census, 145,000 residents of nursing homes. Each requires a bed. Each requires a range of support facilities. Nursing home accommodation is clearly tied to the ageing of the Australian population.

Nursing homes must be the building requirement of the coming decade, Bernard Salt writes.

Peak nursing home resident is aged 90 (7500). This number contracts to 900 by age 100. The baby boomer generation (1946–1964) will press further into this market over the coming decade. However the real meat of the baby boom applies to the amped-up, single-year cohorts born from 1950 onwards.

This means that we have 15 years of escalation before peak boomer collides with demand from peak nursing home residents. The 2040s will be dominated by the struggle to fund acute aged care services, to deliver accredited aged-care workers, to build facilities to accommodate this accelerating market.

I have found that strategic planning in Australia generally focuses on the next five to 10 years in the private sector. Public sector forward planning is largely framed by the budget’s (four-year) forward estimates. Although the ABS does deliver a 50-year vision, every five years. And there are intergenerational reports that are forward looking.

The issue for acute aged care, however, is that the most pressing decade of demand (the 2040s) is still beyond the current strategic planning horizon.

The idea of using the census to better understand the users of, and the demand for, commercial and institutional property can be taken much further. Did you know, for example, that there are 3100 residents of convents and monasteries in Australia? Peak nun is reached at age 86 (i.e. with 66 residents).

There were 43,000 people in prison on census night in 2021.

On the other hand there are 43,000 prisoners in Australia, with peak prisoner being 1700 inmates aged 32. Apprehended criminality must peak in the late 20s.

There are, or were at the 2021 census, 43,000 Australians who spent census night in a public hospital and 19,000 who spent the night in a private hospital. The common age to have spent a night in a public hospital was 84 (930) whereas for private hospitals it was 74 (570).

About 110,000 Australians spent census night in staff quarters, which I understand to be largely dominated by mining camp dongas. There are separate categories for other job-specific work like nurses’ quarters (1400 nationally). Most users of staff quarters were 3400 workers aged 24. Those at the pointy end of the FIFO revolution are workers in their mid-20s.

And while the 2021 census was conducted during a pandemic with many foreign students having previously returned home, I thought it useful to document the fact that 59,000 Australian residents (can include foreign students) spent census night in a hall of residence, generally associated with a university.

This kind of property would not include the residents of commercial student accommodation located close to (but not within the campus of) universities.

The peak age for this kind of student accommodation is 19 with 10,700 (i.e. about 20 per cent of the market) living on campus.

The Australian property market may be dominated by separate private dwellings and increasingly by attached private dwellings (e.g. apartments). However there is a growing niche market for other forms of accommodation including prisons, hospitals, staff quarters and nursing homes.

And while Australians do not generally live in commercial office buildings or industrial buildings, many do spend large periods of time in such accommodation performing work-related tasks. What this analysis shows is that the age profile of workers varies considerably between occupations.

It’s easy to understand the age-based needs of nursing home patients. It’s less common to understand the age profile and the career trajectory expectations of the users of office space and of industrial space. What I have found unusual in this analysis is the way in which solicitors and storepersons, for example, most likely upskill and probably zigzag a career path in order to improve their positions.

And while it is likely that accountants are no less ambitious than those with other skillsets, they are evidently more likely to remain committed to their core expertise (accounting) for longer.

The key insight, I think, is that workers may well expect and perhaps even come into the office in order to attend training and skill-upgrade sessions.

It’s not so much beanbags, free lunches and camaraderie that office workers in particular may want, but rather access to accredited skills and training programs that could land them a better job down the track.

Bernard Salt is founder and executive director of The Demographics Group; data by data scientist Hari Hara Priya Kannan.

Originally published as Census clues about who wants what from commercial, institutional properties of future