Labor back from the brink as Miles narrows LNP lead in the polls

The news

Queensland’s state election contest has tightened in the final weeks, with voter support for Labor building as Steven Miles campaigns to claw back the LNP lead and save seats – if not his government.

Labor’s primary vote has recovered almost 10 percentage points since a previous trend poll to now stand at 32 per cent, while support for the LNP fell by four points to 40 per cent – the opposition party’s lowest point this year.

With just days until the October 26 polling day and early votes streaming in, new polling shows the campaign has helped Labor – even if shy of clawing back a fourth term.Credit: NORDACIOUS (AKA JAMES HILLIER)

Miles has also seen a 10 percentage-point bump as preferred premier to now be almost level with LNP leader David Crisafulli (39 to 37 per cent), as more voters make up their minds ahead of Saturday’s state election.

The special election survey conducted last week by Resolve Strategic for Brisbane Times found 28 per cent of voters intended to vote for a candidate not from the major parties. Queensland has compulsory preferential voting.

When asked to assign preferences as if on the ballot paper, the result gave the LNP a statewide lead of 53 to 47 per cent on a two-party basis – within the 3.1 per cent margin of error. Using 2020 preference flows, this narrowed to 52-48.

Why it matters

The survey of 1003 voters from October 14 to 19 took place in the third week of the formal campaign as votes were already being lodged at pre-poll centres. It differs from previous polls conducted over a longer period to ascertain trends.

Election promises have been made by both major parties, particularly in the voter priority area of living costs through Labor’s introduction of 50¢ public transport fares (subsequently supported by the LNP) and free state primary school lunches (opposed by the LNP).

The LNP has differentiated itself mostly on youth crime, while criticising Labor’s three-term record – under Annastacia Palaszczuk’s leadership until last December.

The LNP’s small target strategy has forced Crisafulli to spend much of the campaign defending, but not detailing, his promise of no abortion law change – undermined by MPs and candidates.

While Labor has sought to criticise the lack of detail in the LNP’s plans around health, energy and the budget, it has faced criticism for planning to borrow to fund its own $9 billion platform for re-election.

What they said

Resolve director Jim Reed said it was unusual for a campaign to produce such a shift. “Labor have certainly won the battle, even if they don’t win the war,” he said.

A five- to six-percentage point statewide swing to the LNP put a “question mark” over a majority, but its concentration in marginal seats outside Brisbane meant “they’ll likely get over the line”.

Reed said the local results suggested the LNP’s focus in those areas was making up for its small target strategy backfiring as the overall protest vote shrunk due to Miles’ cost-of-living promises.

“Miles has basically closed the gap on any leads Crisafulli enjoyed as preferred premier or on performance,” Reed said, adding the turnaround could provide a roadmap for federal Labor.

“The vote share of minor parties and independents will grow again at this election, but the prospects of the Greens and One Nation to pick up seats is quite limited on these numbers.”

What’s next

With the last of three leaders’ debates set for Tuesday night, and LNP costings expected Thursday, the major parties will be hoping to capture those Queenslanders who wait until the end of the campaign to vote.

By the numbers

Asked about both leaders’ recent performance, more voters scored them positively than negatively, with Miles’ eight-point positive balance now nosing ahead of Crisafulli’s seven.

Other responses show the most significant difference was in how “honest and trustworthy” the parties now appear, with 29 per cent saying the statement described Labor compared to 24 per cent who said the LNP.

Voters’ pick of which major party would be best in key policy areas was within two percentage points for cost of living, housing and health – but with the LNP 22 points ahead of Labor on crime statewide.

Stated support for independents fell from a high of 10 per cent at the start of 2023 to two per cent, as candidates running in each seat became known.

More than 600,000, or 16.4 per cent of voters, had cast early ballots as of the last official electoral commission update on Friday.

More election coverage

Seats to watch: Queensland elections often feature party leaders flying between clusters of marginal seats in regional cities. But that’s only one path to victory.

Major promises: More than one in three voters will likely cast their ballot before October 26, so we’ve laid out a summary of the major parties’ plans.

Minor players: Seven minor parties including the Greens and One Nation, plus dozens of independents, are vying for parliamentary seats in the state election. Here’s your guide.