Albanese in voters’ sights over cost of living

Australians are holding Labor to account for the financial pain from rising prices and the cost of housing, with 58 per cent saying they would struggle to pay for a major expense because their household budgets are stretched too thin.

An exclusive survey reveals that 36 per cent believe the federal government is responsible for their rising living costs – far greater than the 13 per cent who blame global factors outside Australia’s control.

Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese are in a tight race with an election due within the next nine months.Credit: Fairfax Media

Federal parliament resumes on Tuesday with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton locked in a tight contest for political advantage and Labor and the Coalition neck and neck in two-party terms.

The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead, shows voters increased Labor’s primary vote from 28 to 30 per cent over the past month but that the party’s core support remained below the level it reached at the 2022 election.

Support for the Coalition increased from 37 to 38 per cent over the past month, returning the Liberals and Nationals to their strongest level of support since the election.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the results showed Labor and the Coalition were closely matched in two-party terms and that many voters were holding the government to account on the cost of living.

“People appreciate there is a range of factors at play, but they do see governments as at least partly to blame for inflation, and most certainly see the federal government as responsible for fixing the problem,” he said.

“The parties have been neck and neck on two-party preferred vote in our polling for the last few months, and that’s also reflected in a close expectation of the election result.”

The survey found that 38 per cent of voters expected Labor to win the next election and 36 per cent thought the Coalition would prevail.

But there was a significant divide about whether a hung parliament would be good or bad for the country. Thirty per cent of voters said they would prefer a minority government and 36 per cent wanted a clear majority, while the remainder were unsure.

Albanese has kept his personal edge over Dutton for the second month in a row, leading by 38 to 35 per cent as preferred prime minister after Dutton gained a small lead on this measure in August.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1606 people from October 1 to 5, producing results with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent. This means all changes in the primary vote were within the margin of error.

The results highlight the gloomy outlook for the near future, with 44 per cent saying they thought the economy would get worse over the next six months and 39 per cent of voters saying the same for the full year ahead.

While Treasurer Jim Chalmers has emphasised the government’s success in posting two budget surpluses while delivering household relief in the May budget and using energy subsidies to cut electricity bills, many voters think the Coalition would do a better job.

Asked to name their preferred treasurer, 24 per cent backed Chalmers and 18 per cent named shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, while 58 per cent were undecided. This was a new question for the Resolve Political Monitor in this month’s survey.

Labor has lost ground on all key measures of policy performance over the past year, to the point where 32 per cent say Dutton and the Coalition would be the best to manage jobs and wages, compared to 30 per cent who prefer Albanese and Labor. The government led on this measure in every month until June.

Asked who they believed would do best at managing the economy, 38 per cent named Dutton and the Coalition, while 26 per cent named Albanese and Labor.

Asked who would do best at keeping the cost of living down, 31 per cent named Dutton and the Coalition, while 24 per cent named Albanese and Labor.

Many hold Labor responsible for fighting inflation despite the formal role of the Reserve Bank in shaping monetary policy, with 52 per cent saying the government and the treasurer had the greatest responsibility, in line with a similar question last month.

Asked a new and broader question about rising living costs, 36 per cent said the government was most responsible for the problem. Another 13 per cent named global factors outside Australia’s control, while 13 per cent named business and 12 per cent named the Reserve Bank.

“We’re starting to see the green shoots of economic hope in some of our measures of outlook and expectations, but the mood is still pretty downbeat,” said Reed.

“A big chunk of the electorate is still trying to cope with the price rises we’ve seen in the last couple of years.

“Basic groceries like meat, eggs, olive oil, plus snacks, top the list of concerns.”

The biggest single factor in the cost of living is the price of groceries and other basic items, named by 59 per cent of voters as a concern. In a question that allowed respondents to name multiple options, 37 per cent named utility bills as a concern and 21 per cent pointed to the cost of renting a home.

In a sign of the pressure on households, 58 per cent of respondents said they would struggle to pay if they had a major expense of a few thousand dollars for a new item such as a fridge or a car repair. Another 29 per cent said they would not struggle to pay and 13 per cent were unsure.

The strain was greatest among workers on low incomes, with 72 per cent saying they would struggle to pay. The Resolve Political Monitor classifies respondents as low income when they earn less than $50,000 a year.

Asked how they rated Albanese, 35 per cent of people said his performance was good and 53 per cent said it was poor. His net result, which subtracts the “poor” from the “good” rating, was minus 18 points, the same as last month.

Asked about Dutton, 40 per cent of people said his performance was good and 41 per cent said it was poor. His net result was minus 1 percentage points, a slight change from minus 2 points last month.

The Resolve Political Monitor removed the United Australia Party from its monthly track this month, a potential factor in the increase in core support for Labor and the Coalition.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.