The battle for Brisbane is taking on a new hue

In just a little under six months, Queenslanders will go to the polls to elect their council representatives and, in Brisbane at least, this time it feels very different.

Instead of the LNP versus Labor, blue versus red, it’s being framed by the incumbent administration as something new.

For the first time, the Brisbane lord mayoral election is being billed as a legitimate a three-way contest.Credit: Artwork by Aresna Villanueva

This campaign, Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner has declared an end to almost a century of two-party politics in Brisbane and acknowledged the Greens as a major force. Not just a major force, but the major force to challenge the LNP’s 20-year grip on the lord mayoralty.

Indeed, Schrinner has been at pains to identify the Greens’ Jonathan Sriranganathan as his main opponent for the keys to City Hall.

“Make no mistake, there are trends happening here that have a great deal of momentum and there is a real chance that that situation [a Sriranganathan victory] could occur next year,” Schrinner told a recent Property Council luncheon in Brisbane.

But let’s cool our jets a bit before declaring a new paradigm.

History shows Sriranganathan faces an uphill battle to claim his office in the north-east corner of City Hall.

With a projected enrolment of almost 820,000 electors, no politician in Australia receives as many direct voters as the lord mayor of Brisbane. It’s a huge, diverse electorate and it remains to be seen whether the Greens can gain a foothold in the suburbs, away from their inner-city base.

No Greens candidate has ever polled more than 20 per cent in a Brisbane lord mayoral election – the high watermark came in 2020, when Kath Angus got 15.4 per cent of the vote.

That’s not to say Sriranganathan is not formidable. He is.

Agree or disagree with his politics, Sriranganathan was an effective disrupter in City Hall as the councillor for The Gabba.

His sartorial style, which earned him the unimaginative moniker of “Rainbow Scarf Man”, stood out from the normal suits and ties in the formal, stuffy surrounds of City Hall. It also caused – and continues to cause – many to underestimate him as “not serious people,” as one Logan Roy would say.

But that take could not be more wrong. He has a savvy political mind, is sharp as a tack and has proven to be an adroit politician.

And he’s effective.

An online “how to squat” guide was widely condemned, but it highlighted Brisbane’s homelessness crisis. Sriranganathan has admitted to being deliberately provocative to get the mainstream media to pay attention.

Mission accomplished.

The Greens have certainly tapped into something. Their campaign on housing affordability has been effective and radical solutions, such as a 1000 per cent increase in rates for Airbnb properties, will likely win more votes than they lose, particularly in high-rental areas.

On one level, Schrinner’s observation-slash-warning speaks to the shifting political landscape in Brisbane, which has seen the Greens first claim one seat in council, then two in state parliament, followed by three in Canberra.

On another level, it speaks to Labor candidate Tracey Price’s near invisibility this campaign. Never heard of her? You’re not alone. Even since Price’s preselection, Jared Cassidy, the opposition leader in City Hall, has been Labor’s main mouthpiece against the Schrinner administration. (That needs to change.)

And on yet another level, it speaks to Schrinner’s political shrewdness. By touting Sriranganathan as his main rival, he diminishes his old enemy Labor and fuels the LNP’s “coalition of chaos” scare campaign.

It’s a scare campaign that, for many voters, just isn’t that scary. They have shown as much in successive elections by delivering Greens representatives at all levels of government.

Mostly, though, the LNP’s reaction to Sriranganathan shows the party has a lot to fear from the Greens. The Central, Paddington and Walter Taylor wards are all more likely to go green than red, and all fall within federal electorates that flipped from the LNP to the Greens at last year’s national poll.

As for the lord mayoralty? That’s another question.

It’s a modern truth that Australia’s political landscape is becoming increasingly polarised, but compulsory and preferential voting are bulwarks against a US-style circus. We elect our share of nutters, but nowhere near the scale of them as walk the halls of Congress in Washington DC.

Sriranganathan is no nutter, but he’s still a long way from mainstream.

And our preferential voting system – optional at a local government level – means the near-invisible Price (remember her?) could yet end up being the citywide beneficiary of Sriranganathan’s inner-city appeal.

But only if she comes out of the shadows.