By Cara Waters and Rachael Dexter
Tim Wilson has won Goldstein in a dramatic comeback after building an unassailable lead over teal incumbent MP Zoe Daniel through a postal vote surge.
After trailing Daniel by 1800 votes on election night, the Liberal candidate was ahead of the incumbent teal independent MP by 725 votes on Tuesday evening following the latest count update in Goldstein.
Liberal candidate Tim Wilson at Billilla Mansion in Brighton on Tuesday evening.Credit: Wayne Taylor
Wilson’s victory has wider significance for the Liberal Party as it reels in the wake of Saturday’s disastrous election loss to Labor.
Wilson was a prominent and energetic member of the Morrison government who led the attack on Labor’s then franking credits policy, and has previously campaigned strongly on free speech.
He is also a rare moderate urban Liberal in a party room in the throes of selecting a replacement for Peter Dutton as leader.
In another teal versus Liberal contest, Kooyong challenger Amelia Hamer is riding a postal vote surge that is eating away at the lead of incumbent independent Monique Ryan.
Ryan leads Hamer 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent on a two-candidate-preferred basis. That equates to about 1002 votes based on figures published by the Australian Electoral Commission at 4.30pm on Tuesday.
That margin has decreased from about 1400 votes on Monday night with 10,009 votes in the pile yet to be counted, 8564 of which are postal votes.
It’s a dramatic change in fortune in both seats with Daniel claiming victory in Goldstein at her election party on Saturday night when she was firmly ahead in the polls. Her lead eroded steadily as postal votes were counted and Wilson took the lead on Tuesday.
There were 24,299 postal votes issued in Goldstein and of these 13,982 ballot papers had been counted just after 5pm on Tuesday.
Independent Zoe Daniel claimed victory in Goldstein on Saturday night, but postal votes will get Tim Wilson over the line.Credit: Penny Stephens
There are still 5986 votes received but not yet counted with postal votes strongly favouring Wilson.
Daniel has not conceded the seat. Both Wilson and Daniel declined interview requests on Tuesday night.
“Out of respect for my scrutineers and the democratic process, I will await further counting,” Daniel said.
“With the margin in the hundreds and the remaining votes in the thousands, this seems sensible. Again, I thank all of those who supported me in so many ways during my campaign and with their vote.”
On election day, Wilson said for him to win Goldstein “would require making three Australian political milestones in one election”.
Wilson claims three milestones in his victory: the first federal MP defeated by an independent to retake their seat; the first MP to defeat an incumbent teal; and the first Liberal in 110 years to take a seat off an independent elected at a general election.
Kooyong Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer on Saturday after casting her vote at Balwyn Primary School.Credit: Jason South
“I just temper every single part of my enthusiasm to understand the scale and enormity of what it would mean to win,” he said on election day. “I will not believe it until I see the results.”
Wilson posted a video on social media on Tuesday night of him celebrating by eating a frozen yoghurt from Yo-Chi.
“I know it will spoil my dinner but on days like this, I think you need a celebratory Yo-Chi and I think I’ve earned it,” he said.
His win in Goldstein bucks the trend of a statewide negative swing of about 2 per cent against the Liberals.
Hopeful Hamer considered conceding
Hamer told broadcaster Jacqui Felgate on 3AW on Tuesday that she thought about picking up the phone and calling Ryan to concede on Saturday, but was told by her team to hold on for postal votes.
“I’m one to say you’ve got to put your ego aside in these things,” she said. “The first thing I [did was I] actually did speak to the team [and] said, ‘Look, should I call and concede?’
“The team said to me, ‘No, actually, it does look like what’s coming out of pre-poll is much more positive’. And, you know, I trust my team and so we hung on.”
Hamer said she and her team were now “cautiously optimistic” but that it was “too close to call anything right now”.
“If the postals do continue on the trajectory that we’ve seen so far, you know … there is a pathway,” she said.
Hamer was asked to reflect on what went wrong for the Liberals. One theme emerged repeatedly: the campaign lacked substance.
“The one piece of feedback I was hearing consistently throughout the campaign,” Hamer said, “is that people wanted to see more substantial policy from us — and they wanted to see it earlier.
“Not just, ‘hey nuclear and a little bit of tax here and there’, but substantive taxation reform and a real vision as to what our country should look like, and what it would look like under a Coalition government.”
She pointed to the Coalition’s central slogan – “Getting Australia Back on Track” – and questioned its meaning.
“We talked a lot about getting Australia back on track, but the question is: back on track to what?” she said.
“We didn’t set that. We didn’t make that clear.”
Counting continues in both seats and there will be an automatic recount by the AEC if there is a difference of fewer than 100 votes.
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