Coalition takes primary vote lead in RPM poll for first time since election

Voters have lifted the Coalition to its strongest position since the last federal election by boosting its primary vote from 34 to 37 per cent despite backing Labor on its overhaul of personal income tax cuts for millions of workers.

The shift has weakened Labor’s core support from 35 per cent in December to 34 per cent and given the Coalition its first lead on the primary vote in the Resolve Political Monitor in this term of parliament.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has maintained his personal lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, ahead by 39 to 32 per cent as preferred prime minister, but the gap has narrowed to its smallest margin since the election.

With the two leaders scrambling for an edge in the federal seat of Dunkley at a key byelection this Saturday, the exclusive findings show Dutton has improved on the Coalition’s core support at the last election, when it gained a primary vote of 35.7 per cent.

The results in the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research firm Resolve Strategic, find that support for the Greens fell a single percentage point to 11 per cent, independent candidates were steady at 9 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation rose from 5 to 6 per cent.

“Although the movement in vote over the last couple of months isn’t huge, it continues a trend that takes us to Labor’s worst position this term. The Coalition holds a primary vote lead for the first time,” Resolve director Jim Reed said.

“The feedback from voters is that they may not have warmed to Dutton personally, but do see him focused on the right issues and taking the government to task on them energetically.”

The findings show 52 per cent support for the government’s overhaul of the stage 3 tax cuts despite concern about Labor and Albanese breaking an election pledge to keep the original plan in place.

Only 14 per cent said they opposed the new policy when told it would deliver greater tax cuts for 11.5 million taxpayers but would mean smaller tax cuts for those earning more than $146,400 a year.

The question was: “The Labor government has revised the stage 3 tax cuts promised by the previous Coalition government. The tax cuts are due to start in July this year. The Labor changes mean that 11.5 million taxpayers will receive a bigger tax cut than the original plan. However, the tax cut will be smaller for all workers who earn more than $146,400. Every worker will receive a tax cut. Labor argues that this rebalancing is needed to help those struggling with the cost of living on lower incomes, including those who would have missed out on any tax cut, and that this gives more people a cut. However, critics say it breaks a promise, will cost taxpayers an extra $28 billion, will lead to greater bracket creep in years to come, and may add to inflation. Given this, do you support or oppose Labor’s changed stage 3 tax cuts?”

The latest survey shows broad support for the new tax cut plan, with 53 per cent of Coalition voters and 61 per cent of Labor voters in favour. It was backed by 56 per cent of higher-income voters, 57 per cent of middle-income voters and 46 per cent of those on lower incomes.

“Labor obviously hasn’t benefited from the tax cut changes,” Reed said.

“Voters don’t seem angry at the broken promise, but neither are they impressed by the quantum. It’s welcome, but a drop in the ocean to the last year’s price increases.”

Voters expressed their frustration when the Resolve Political Monitor asked if they were reconsidering their vote for one side or the other and, if so, why.

“Interest rates are too high, and we need someone stronger to manage it all,” one respondent said. Another said: “Albanese has proved to be a weak leader. We need stronger leaders in these times.” A third said: “I’m getting nowhere. I’m able to afford less and less. We just need change.”

When asked about economic management, 38 per cent of voters backed Dutton and the Coalition compared to 27 per cent who backed Albanese and Labor. The Coalition’s lead on this measure rose by 3 percentage points from December.

Asked to name the better leader and party to manage immigration and refugees, 35 per cent of voters backed Dutton and the Coalition while only 25 per cent named Albanese and Labor, with the remainder undecided.

While the survey was conducted after widespread media coverage of the arrival of 39 asylum seekers in Western Australia on February 15, there was no significant shift from the findings in December, when 33 per cent backed the Coalition and 22 per cent backed Labor.

The reversal for the government has been significant over the longer term, however, given that Labor held a small lead on this policy issue early last year.

On national security and defence, 37 per cent of voters backed Dutton and the Coalition compared to 25 per cent who preferred Albanese and Labor, confirming the Coalition’s advantage despite the government recently committing $11.1 billion in additional spending on the naval fleet.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1603 people from February 21 to 24, producing results with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent. This means all changes in the primary vote were within the margin of error.

Because the poll asked voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way as they filled in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election, there is no “undecided” category in the results, a key difference from some other surveys.

Core support for Labor fell from 35 to 34 per cent over the two months since the last Resolve survey, which was held from November 29 to December 3. While the latest result remains higher than the 32.6 per cent primary vote for Labor at the last election, it is down from 37 per cent six months ago, when Labor had a strong lead over the Coalition on most issues in the August survey.

Asked how they rated Albanese, 41 per cent of people said his performance was good and 47 per cent said it was poor. His net result, which subtracts the “poor” from the “good” rating, improved to minus 6 percentage points from minus 12 in December.

Asked about Dutton, 35 per cent of people said his performance was good and 46 per cent said it was poor. His net result deteriorated to minus 11 percentage points.

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