By Matthew Knott
Australia will acquire a fleet of “drone ships” still in prototype under an ambitious $11 billion federal government plan that would more than double the navy’s number of warships in coming decades but shrink the size of the fleet in the short term.
Military experts applauded the government for spending extra money on high-end naval capabilities, but warned the reduction in the size of the navy fleet until the early 2030s could leave the nation exposed as China rapidly expands its military and asserts itself in the South China Sea.
Under the plan announced by Defence Minister Richard Marles, the navy will acquire up to 11 new general-purpose frigates and a surprise new fleet of drone-like “optionally crewed vessels” currently being tested as prototypes by the United States Navy, in which most of the functions can be automated or controlled remotely.
The shake-up, which will add $1.7 billion to the defence budget over the next four years and $11 billion over a decade, would expand the navy’s fleet of warships from 11 to 26 vessels by the mid-2040s.
But the navy will lose two of its current fleet of eight Anzac-class frigates this decade, raising questions about what meaningful role Australia could play in a regional maritime conflict.
The government has scrapped a planned life-of-type extension of the Anzac-class fleet, and the oldest of the frigates will be decommissioned this year, with a second scheduled to go out of service in 2026.
As expected, the planned fleet of Hunter-class frigates will be cut from nine to six ships and the Arafura offshore patrol vessel program halved from 12 to six boats, following a review of the nation’s surface fleet led by retired US vice admiral William Hilarides.
The review was commissioned after last year’s defence strategic review found the nation’s military was no longer “fit for purpose” and the naval fleet needed a better mix of larger and smaller warships.
The cut to the offshore patrol vessel program is a blow to German shipbuilder Luerssen and the German government after the Australian government last year chose to award a lucrative army vehicle contract to a South Korean firm over a German contractor.
The government says the navy’s firepower will receive a major boost, with the total number of missile cells on the nation’s warships rising from about 400 to about 700.
An image of a tomahawk missile launched from the guided-missile destroyer USS Porter. Credit: US Navy
The navy’s current fleet of destroyers and frigates will have their Harpoon anti-ship missiles replaced with new naval strike missiles and cruise missiles.
The 10,000-tonne Hunter-class frigates will be fitted with Tomahawk cruise missiles to address concerns that they would be under-gunned in a conflict, subject to a feasibility study.
The defence minister said the shake-up would deliver the navy the largest surface fleet since World War II and stressed the government had allocated money in the budget for the overhaul.
“This is real money which has been worked through the Expenditure Review Committee,” Marles said. “There’s no make-believe in this.”
Navy chief Mark Hammond said the release of the plan represented the biggest Australian investment in ships for generations.
“For the men and women of the Royal Australian Navy, this is a real shot in the arm in terms of the understanding of the important role that Australian Navy sailors play across the Indo-Pacific,” Hammond said.
The addition of a new fleet of general-purpose frigates will set off an international battle to secure the lucrative contract after the review singled out ship designs by German, Japanese, Spanish and South Korean firms as the four best options.
A decision on the winning design will be made next year, with the first frigate to be delivered by the end of the decade.
The first three ships will be bought “off the shelf” from overseas to speed up delivery, with the remaining frigates to be built at the Henderson shipyard in Western Australia.
Opposition defence spokesman Andrew Hastie said the short-term funding boost was too small, and it would take too long to boost the navy’s firepower.
“The government can’t keep getting up and saying that Australia is facing the most dangerous strategic circumstances since the end of World War II and do nothing about it,” Hastie said.
“I think that the Iranian-backed Houthis probably have a better strike capability than the Australian Defence Force.”
Former Defence official Michael Shoebridge said: “Australia’s naval power will not increase this decade and that’s a problem when the Chinese are building up their navy rapidly every year.
“We will be less of a help in deterring conflict in our region which is bad news.”
Hugh White, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, blasted the plan as a “shocker” and questioned the rationale for a major investment in surface ships.
“Surface ships are too big, too slow, too vulnerable and they don’t do the things we need,” he said, pointing to the recent success of cheap missile and drone attacks against ships in the Red Sea and Ukraine.
Peter Dean, director of foreign policy and defence at the United States Studies Centre, said the plan was “really good” and delivered on the strategy outlined by last year’s defence strategic review, which he co-authored.
While sceptical about the value of the six Hunter-class frigates, he praised the government’s plan to buy frigates from overseas and to invest in uncrewed vessels.
Jennifer Parker, an expert associate at the Australian National University’s national security college, praised the government for committing to expand the size of the surface fleet and spend more on the navy.
“That shows the government is serious,” she said.
She said that it was likely necessary for warship numbers to go backwards in the short term, but added: “That’s dangerous because many intelligence analysts say we are entering a period of increased instability.”
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