Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is into just its third week, which means that, as badly as things appear to be going for the Russian Army, we shouldn’t make rash predictions about victory and defeat. The information we are seeing is highly partial. For instance, it is easy to find scattered evidence of Russian losses on social media, but we don’t know what it all adds up to.

Even US intelligence agencies, with access to much better information, say they have low confidence in their estimates of Russian casualties. Reliable information on Ukraine’s losses is even harder to find. And although Russia’s campaign looks inept through Western eyes, there is a risk of mirror-imaging: that is, of assuming that Russia ought to be behaving as we would in similar circumstances. But Russia may have different ideas about how to conduct military campaigns.