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Geoff Raby

Reports of China’s demise are exaggerated

The popular theory of “peak China” is based on a misreading of data. And many of its problems are more cyclical than analysts are allowing for.

It is easy to grab a headline about the end of peak China. China’s imminent economic stagnation is becoming conventional wisdom, unless, of course, one happens to be in the resources, energy, green industry, or automobile sectors, just to name a few.

There, China’s demand continues to surge or, alternatively, depending on the sector, China’s capacity threatens the extinction of foreign competitors.

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Geoff Raby was Australia’s ambassador to China, 2007-2011. His book Great Game On: the contest for Central Asia and Global Supremacy will be published in November by Melbourne University Press.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/world/asia/reports-of-china-s-demise-are-exaggerated-20240405-p5fhoj