Ratings agencies have poured doubt on NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey’s pledge to return NSW’s finances to surplus in two years after his first budget revealed almost $8 billion to boost public sector wages and baked in expensive election promises.

The Minns government will ride a property price rebound and a strong jobs market to deliver the state’s first surplus in five years in 2024-25, but has failed to set out a plan to stop debt from tracking $39 billion higher within the forward estimates period.