When Australians head to the polls on May 3, the electoral maths will be simple: if Anthony Albanese suffers a net loss of four seats, Labor loses its majority, while for Peter Dutton, the Coalition needs a net gain of 18 seats to govern in his own right.

Any result in between will return a hung parliament, sparking a scramble by Albanese and Dutton to secure support from an enlarged and ideologically diverse crossbench.