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Parnell Palme McGuinness

No model answers for this crisis

A forecasting model is an opinion column with more maths. Its purpose is to spark action, not necessarily to be right.

Will we ever trust experts again? The models that predicted the spread of the coronavirus have been under fire for months. Now the economic forecasts that were based on those models have highlighted exactly how out of whack the epidemiological predictions were. What will happen if we lose faith in modelling?

Saving $60 billion should never feel like an anticlimax, but here we are in 2020, supposedly in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic, with depression-style dole queues preparing us for a $130 billion economic rescue package, and it turns out that, well, it might not be half so bad.

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Parnell Palme McGuinness is managing director of Agenda C.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/no-model-answers-for-this-crisis-20200526-p54we5