Fresh analysis of the Albanese government’s ambition to achieve a huge increase in the number of young people with a university degree by 2050 shows the plan is so far off track that enrolments will fall below current levels by the end of the decade.

The challenge of reversing students enrolment numbers that have been in decline since 2016 and hitting a target of 55 per cent of young people with a degree by 2050 is being made harder by a funding regime that is restricting, not encouraging, growth, the study found.