Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has been busy massaging pre-budget expectations. We are told to expect an earlier and lower peak in debt as a proportion of GDP than previously forecast, with a decline over the medium term (which in budget-speak means up to 2032).

There are many moving parts in this outlook, not least of which is GDP growth, but there are also strong hints that budget variables will be revised to produce lower deficits or even a balanced budget within that 10-year medium-term horizon.