Last week, the government released the modelling it uses to inform its pandemic response. It appeared reticent; in press conferences, the government was keen to stress its limitations, its use of overseas assumptions and so on, as if to say: "We are not relying on models to decide what to do". It should not have been.

Disease modelling is one of the best tools we have for shaping our pandemic response. The government's modelling is sound. It aligned closely with ours (I would hope so); we predict 32,000 daily ICU admissions at the peak if we do nothing, the government predicts 35,000. It presents a coherent picture of why we are "flattening the curve" and strong justification for what is being done today.