Just before Christmas 2015, prime minister Malcolm Turnbull boarded his official aircraft at Sydney Airport, bound for Tokyo and an important meeting with the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe. As he settled in for the 10-hour flight, Turnbull knew it was an important trip. Tony Abbott, his predecessor, had developed a strong relationship with Abe; they shared similar politics that hewed towards right-wing nationalism and unwavering support for the United States.

But what Turnbull didn’t know was that Abe had been led to believe by Abbott that Japan was the leading contender to build Australia’s next fleet of submarines. When Turnbull talked to Abe about the competitive evaluation process, Abe appeared unfazed by the discussions. According to one observer, it appeared Abe thought the discussion was just for show, that Japan had already won the submarine deal.