Rumours suggest another Chinese naval task group may be heading towards Australia. While such a deployment poses no direct threat and warships are entitled under international law to operate in international waters, it inevitably recalls the Chinese task group that circumnavigated Australia in March. That voyage, while overblown by some, was a deliberate show of maritime coercion in a shifting strategic environment.

China’s growing aggression in the Indo-Pacific, along with Russia’s assault on Ukraine and the war in the Middle East, have made one thing clear: military force has returned as a normal tool of coercion. For Australia, the question is how we reduce our vulnerability to military coercion, and that conversation begins with defence spending.