Victoria's tourism sector will be smashed by a 78 per cent decline worth more than $20 billion in the wake of COVID-19 and bushfires, with a further hit expected from the diplomatic row with China and full recovery not expected until 2024.

The state's other largest export sector, international education – worth $13.7 billion and supporting 80,000 jobs – is also expected to drop 43 per cent this year, with students not expected to return in significant numbers until 2022.