The Russia-Ukraine war is a month old. Many pre-war assumptions, and even a few old geopolitical certainties, now lie demolished on Ukraine’s roadsides with the burned out Russian tanks.

Moscow’s chances of occupying or pacifying Ukraine are low. No puppet government has been quickly installed to accept Vladimir Putin’s terms. Thousands of Russian soldiers are dead, yet Russia has a tenuous hold on just one Ukrainian city. Ukraine’s elected President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks as a global hero from Kyiv, and has not vanished into a Russian jail or worse. All these things will now weigh heavily at the negotiating table if and when the peace talks become serious.