Why the most widely predicted recession was a no-show
US economists were misled by false signals, including a short banking crisis, an oil-price spike and resilient consumer spending.
Over the past two years, most economists have predicted a US recession. Indeed, it has been the most widely anticipated recession that didn’t happen. Like Godot, it has been a no-show.
That became increasingly obvious at the start of this year. However, while most bailed on their gloomy recession forecasts, many predicted that the US Federal Reserve would have to cut interest rates several times to avoid a recession if inflation continued to moderate.
Financial Times
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