It may be that the resolve of Australia, the United States and Japan in recent years has finally led Beijing to realise that it can prosper in peace if it accepts a regional equilibrium: that is the basis of peaceful regional coexistence. Beijing has hitherto underestimated the cohesion and resolve of the liberal democratic allies. Now, maybe, it has learnt its lesson.

When I became the foreign minister, I instituted a practice of beginning each parliamentary term spending a lengthy period with the department secretary plotting our foreign policy strategy for the next three years.