Afghanistan Diary: The fall of Kabul was predictable if you were there
Living in Afghanistan’s capital the week before the Taliban captured the city, the reality was at odds with US intelligence.
Guards struggled to maintain order as hundreds of people wanting to flee the country gathered at Kabul’s international airport on Tuesday. AP
A week ago, The Washington Post published a scoop that US intelligence officials had revised their assessment of Afghanistan to say that Kabul could fall in 90 days. The assessment was later revised a second time to suggest the city could be isolated within 72 hours. A day later, Kabul had fallen. Could anyone have predicted it? Actually, yes.
During my week in the capital, everyone I met was certain that the Taliban would arrive within days. Predictions were extraordinarily accurate: one day after Mazar-i-Sharif, the last major city in northern Afghanistan, was taken. I relied on highly precise intelligence from local businessmen and even foreign journalists to schedule my departure flight.
New Statesman
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