When the country shut down in April, The Australia Institute predicted a $3.5 billion to $5.5 billion windfall for private health insurers – a big, juicy number widely reported in the media.

The ban on elective surgeries was lifted in only six weeks. So last month, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph, with the help of the consumer defenders at Choice, predicted a small but still significant $1 billion boon for the sector from the six weeks of shutdown. “Money for jam”, the Tele reckoned, which private health funds had “no intention of giving back”.