Not all the headlines generated in the early (or middle) days of the coronavirus lockdowns have aged well. Particularly those charting second-order effects, such as its impact on private health insurers.

Consider the April 6 report released by The Australia Institute's Roy Harvey and Rod Campbell. Its lead, backed up by a paltry 800 words of analysis spread over five pages, was of a $3.5 billion to $5.5 billion windfall supposedly about to accrue to the sector, given all the elective surgery members would no longer be able to claim. The whole industry raised only $6.2 billion in premiums while paying out $5.3 billion in claims in the March quarter, so this was assuming a dramatic, six-month-long reduction in the volume of procedures.