Wesfarmers boss Rob Scott has reinforced the message that it is going to be tough ahead. Even more than for aviation, the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the need to remove pointless handicaps to growth. However good Australia’s economy looks in comparison with others, Mr Scott reminded The Australian Financial Review Virtual Retail Summit yesterday, the brutal truth is that Australia is not growing – it is shrinking.

The revised 4.5 per cent fall for 2020 forecast by the IMF is serious by any measure. Retail sales soared in March as consumers hoarded, collapsed in April as they locked down, and rocketed in May as they came back. Whether consumers are returning with confidence depends on a contained virus and secure jobs. For now, demand is patchy: shopping for essentials in suburban malls is back where it was, but discretionary and CBD shopping have been smashed. That is part of the cliff face that retailers and the rest of the economy must negotiate with millions of workers sheltering on JobKeeper, JobSeeker, or disengaged; with free childcare ending, and bank repayment holidays tapering. The peak of the recession has passed, but whether there will be jobs as workers re-emerge again depends on policy choices Australians must make.