Modelling published by the Victorian government’s infrastructure body warns that the state faces energy shortfalls and prices more than double recent lows, and that a list of poor outcomes are at high risk of coming true, including missing targets to retire coal-fired power and bring on enough renewables to meet demand.

Infrastructure Victoria on Tuesday released a draft 30-year plan with 43 recommendations and seven longer-term “future options” including on energy policy. But two supporting documents published without fanfare on the body’s website reveal dire forecasts as the Allan government pushes for a 95 per cent renewable energy target by 2035.