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Bonds and oil scream ‘recession’. Will stocks start to care?

Australian and US equity markets keep making fresh record highs, ignoring violent and unusual moves in bonds and commodities. Someone has to be wrong. 

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As global markets await the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut on Thursday morning, it appears investors are sticking to the playbook that’s seen them through the last 11 months: keep calm and keep buying.

The ASX 200 hit yet another all-time high on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a fresh record on Monday night, as the S&P 500 edged back towards a new all-time top. Wall Street’s benchmark, and the global proxy for risk, is up 38 per cent since the lows of October 2023, and 18 per cent this calendar year alone, pushing the market’s price-to-earnings multiple to almost 22 times.

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James Thomson is senior Chanticleer columnist based in Melbourne. He was the Companies editor and editor of BRW Magazine. Connect with James on Twitter. Email James at j.thomson@afr.com

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/bonds-and-oil-scream-recession-will-stocks-start-to-care-20240917-p5kbai