Melbourne Cup tips 2018: Who the experts are tipping in the great race

THE Lloyd Williams-owned Yucatan was the outright favourite for the Melbourne Cup, but the big wet at Flemington has seen a change. Our racing team is divided. WHO WILL YOU BACK?

• Cup favourite’s nightmare draw
• Cup form: Finding winner made easy

FIND out who the experts are tipping in the Melbourne Cup.

The Lloyd Williams-owned Yucatan was the outright favourite for the Melbourne Cup, but the big wet at Flemington has seen a change.

According to our racing team, there are plenty of contenders for the big prize in Australia’s great race.

Where will your money go?

**FOLLOW OUR LIVE COVERAGE OF MELBOURNE CUP DAY**

FORM GUIDE: FIND A MELBOURNE CUP WINNER

EXPERT VERDICT: MELBOURNE CUP TIPS

VOTE NOW: WHO IS YOUR FAVOURITE RACEHORSE?

LEO SCHLINK (Herald Sun)

1 Yucatan

2 Magic Circle

3 Muntahaa

4 The Cliffsofmoher

Roughie: Rostropovich

GLENN McFARLANE (Herald Sun)

1. Yucatan

2 Avilius

3 Youngstar

4 Cross Counter

Roughie: Rostropovich

MICHAEL MANLEY (Herald Sun)

1 Yucatan

2 The Cliffsofmoher

3 Avilus

4 Rostropovich

Best roughie: Finche

LAUREN WOOD (Herald Sun)

1 Youngstar

2 Yucatan

3 Cross Counter

4 The Cliffsofmoher

Roughie: Who Shot Thebarman

Yucatan is the favourite to win the Melbourne Cup. Picture: AAP

ELIZA SEWELL (Herald Sun)

1 Yucatan

2 Avilius

3 Marmelo

4 Best Solution

Roughie: Vengeur Masque

SIMON MOY (Superracing)

1 Muntahaa

2. Yucatan

3. Marmelo

4. Magic Circle

Roughie: Ace High

DARREN PRENDERGAST (Superracing)

1. Magic Circle

2. Yucatan

3. Cross Counter

4. Youngstar

Roughie: Chestnut Coat

ROB SUTHERLAND (Superracing)

1. Magic Circle

2. Muntahaa

3. Sound Check

4. A Prince Of Arran

Roughie: Marmelo

CHRIS VERNUCCIO (Herald Sun)

1. Yucatan

2. Muntahaa

3. Cross Counter

4. Magic Circle

RAY THOMAS (Daily Telegraph)

1 Yucatan

2 Muntahaa

3 Marmelo

Roughie: Ace High

RON DUFFICY (Sky Racing)

1 Magic Circle

2 Yucatan

3 Sound Check

Roughie: Youngstar

The ultimate prize awaits for the winner of Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. Picture: Getty Images

DAVID RICCIO (Daily Telegraph)

1 Avilius

2 Yucatan

3 Red Verdon

Roughie: The Cliffsofmoher

MATT JONES (Daily Telegraph)

1 Magic Circle

2 The Cliffsofmoher

3 Yucatan

4 Rostropovich

Roughie: Chestnut Coat

SHAYNE O’CASS (Sportsman)

1 Cross Counter

2 Finche

3 Muntahaa

Roughie: Auvray

Magic Circle heads into the Cup with good form. Picture: Picture: AAP

NATHAN EXLEBY (Courier-Mail)

1 Cross Counter

2 Yucatan

3 Muntahaa

Roughie: Marmelo

ROBERT CRADDOCK (Courier-Mail)

1 Ventura Storm

2 Yucatan

3 Best Solution

Roughie: Runaway

PETER MOODY (Former leading trainer)

1 Yucatan

2 Muntahaa

3 Cross Counter

Best Roughie: Runaway

Godolphin trainer James Cummings checks over Avilius. Picture: Getty Images

MATT TRIPP (Beteasy)

1.Avilius

2.Marmelo

3.Yucatan

4.Muntahaa

Roughie: Who Shot Thebarman

SALLY SNOW (TAB Risk Manager)

1.Yucatan

2.Marmelo

3.Magic Circle

4.Muntahaa

Roughie: Rostropovich

DEANE LESTER (RSN/TAB)

1. Yucatan

2. Magic Circle

3. Avilius

4. Rostropvich

Roughie: Sound Check

NICK QUINN (TAB)

1. Yucatan

2. Best Solution

3. Magic Circle

4. Avillius

Roughie: Chestnut Coat

GARY CRISPE (Racing And Sports/Timeform)

1. Yucatan

2. Cross Counter

3. A Prince Of Arran

4. Finche

Roughie: The Cliffsofmoher

DOMINIC BEIRNE (Form guru)

1. Yucatan

2. Best Solution

3. Avilius

4. Cross Counter

Roughie: Vengeur Masque

DAVID GATELY (Best Bets)

1. Magic Circle

2. Yucatan

3. Cross Counter

4. Muntahaa

Roughie: Youngstar

FEW CLUES TO FOREIGN THREATS

Chris Vernuccio

THE rules to finding the Melbourne Cup winner changed completely after Rekindling’s success last year.

For 23 years no raider had won the Cup without a lead-up run.

The only horse to manage that feat was Vintage Crop in 1993 — until ­Rekindling.

There were some close misses — Bauer lost a heart-stopper in 2008, Red Cadeaux was similarly denied at his first attempt in 2011 and Heartbreak City also had to settle for a close second in 2016.

But they didn’t win and that made it easier to scratch these unknown raiders from the formguide as the internationalisation of our biggest staying race expanded year on year.

But it wasn’t an entirely foolproof strategy, as it proved when Rekindling threw history out the window.

Now every foreigner needs to be thoroughly examined and scrutinised, even if the overseas form can be near impossible to read.

Cross Counter will be the most inexperienced runner in the Melbourne Cup. The Charlie Appleby stayer has only had seven starts but he is among the leading contenders. Picture: Getty Images

This year there could be up to four raiders heading straight into the Melbourne Cup — Cross Counter, Magic Circle, Muntahaa and Marmelo — and all four are serious contenders.

At least we know a little about Marmelo, who was the favourite for the race last year after his outstanding Caulfield Cup run, although he’s largely been forgotten this time.

Trainer Hughie Morrison said Marmelo was at his best when fresh, hence the decision to bypass an Australian lead-up run this time.

The big whisper out of Werribee is Ebor Handicap winner Muntahaa.

The past two Ebor winners have produced excellent Melbourne Cup performances — Heartbreak City (second in 2016) and Nakeeta (fifth in 2015).

Of what we’ve seen so far this spring, it was hard not to be impressed by Yucatan’s commanding win in the Herbert Power Stakes, another tried and true form race.

Here is our take on the six major lead-up races for the Melbourne Cup:

FORM POINTERS

THE KEY LEAD-UP RACES

THE BART CUMMINGS (OCTOBER 6)

VERNUCCIO SAYS: Avilius narrowly held off Jaameh but they cleared the rest of the field. If Jaameh can secure a Cup spot via the Lexus Stakes he’s capable of a top-10 finish.

McFARLANE SAYS: Gritty performance from Avilius to narrowly edge out Jaameh for a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup. Vengeur Masque chased steadily but couldn’t get within five lengths.

MANLEY SAYS: Avilius fought off Jaameh in a photo finish to gain a run in the Melbourne Cup and rocket to favouritism. Vengeur Masque was solid in fifth place.

HERBERT POWER (OCTOBER 13)

VERNUCCIO SAYS: Yucatan was six lengths in front before James McDonald slammed on the brakes inside the final 100m. A Prince Of Arran looks suited at 3200m if he can sneak into the field.

McFARLANE SAYS: Winx aside, this was the performance of the spring to date. Yucatan was breathtaking in the Herbert Power, pushed wide during the race, but showed extraordinary acceleration.

MANLEY SAYS: Yucatan was made favourite for the Melbourne Cup after his scintillating performance to win the Herbert Power where he was eased down over the final 100m.

CAULFIELD CUP (OCTOBER 20)

VERNUCCIO SAYS: All credit to Best Solution after a proactive ride from Pat Cosgrave. The Cliffsofmoher was entitled to finish closer and Youngstar was too far back. Stick with the winner from this race.

McFARLANE SAYS: Impossible not to be impressed with Best Solution here, his third successive Group 1 win. The Cliffsofmoher was game in third. Youngstar was an eye-catcher without luck.

MANLEY SAYS: Best Solution made it four wins on end with a tough victory. The Cliffsofmoher finished off nicely in a sound Melbourne Cup trial. Youngstar worked home fairly well out wide.

GEELONG CUP (OCTOBER 24)

VERNUCCIO SAYS: A popular win by the locally-bred Runaway but the eye-catcher was Finche. This year’s Cup may be too soon for him, but keep him in mind for 2019.

McFARLANE SAYS: Brave frontrunning win by Runaway. But Chris Waller’s Finche might be the one to follow here. The son of Frankel finished third and should be better suited at Flemington.

MANLEY SAYS: Runaway led throughout to defeat his stablemate Northwest Passage. Finche ran home strongly for third.

Runaway dug deep to win the Geelong Cup. Can he back it up in the Melbourne Cup? Picture: Getty Images

COX PLATE (OCTOBER 27)

VERNUCCIO SAYS: Avilius and Rostropovich were beaten nearly eight and nine lengths respectively by Winx. Both were quite soft in their last 200m and that has to raise some queries.

McFARLANE SAYS: Avilius finished fourth, a length clear of Aidan O’Brien’s Rostropovich in fifth. James Cummings says Avilius had the perfect last hitout before the Cup.

MANLEY SAYS: Two runners from this line up in the Melbourne Cup. Avilius made up some ground to finish fourth. Rostropovich went forward and battled on quite well for fifth.

MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (OCTOBER 27)

VERNUCCIO SAYS: Ventura Storm won a high-pressure race after Trap For Fools set a fast tempo. How he backs up 10 days later is the concern. This is second-tier form. Libran’s effort was full of merit.

McFARLANE SAYS: There are likely better form references for the Cup, but the Hayes camp is adamant Ventura Storm will run much better than his 21st placing in last year’s race. Evergreen 10-year-old Who Shot Thebarman finished strongly.

MANLEY SAYS: It’s usually a solid form reference. Ventura Storm was given a perfect ride to defeat Trap For Fools. The best Melbourne Cup trials came from Who Shot Thebarman and Libran.

Originally published as Melbourne Cup tips 2018: Who the experts are tipping in the great race