Campo’s Corner: Surviving preliminary final week
With the crucible of the preliminary finals all but upon us, Campo’s Corner has gone deep into the tall grass to preview both of this weekend’s blockbusters.
Raiders
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TOO SORE: Roberts out of prelim final
Preliminary final week. The gentleman’s grand final. The theatre of Paul Carige’s nightmares and Craig Polla-Mounter’s dreams. Arguably the most gut-wrenching weekend of the year.
The dream of a premiership has never been closer, but for the two teams that lose it will never feel further away. We’re so close to drinking from the keg of glory we can almost taste it.
Finals footy is the best, but part of why it’s the best is because the stakes heighten with every passing week. Right now we’re mainlining the type of raw, uncut finals footy you see in the movies.
We’re 21 years removed from Paul Carige’s infamous display for Parramatta in the 1998 prelim against Canterbury and still the mere mention of his name is sure to send chills down the spine of any Parramatta fan. That’s what prelim weekend can do, it makes legends and it breaks them.
It’s going to be a big few days. Here’s how Campo’s Corner sees the two games going.
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CANBERRA RAIDERS VS SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
The two teams have only played once this season and I’m ruling the majority of that match – which Souths won 16-12 in a high-quality encounter – Inadmissable.
The Raiders were without Joey Leilua, Jordan Rapana, John Bateman, Joseph Tapine and Aidan Sezer, South Sydney didn’t have Alex Johnston and Adam Doueihi. The squads and the circumstances are just too different to take too much away from the match – except for the near guarantee this will be a pitched, physical battle.
South Sydney will lift defensively from last week’s match with Manly, but Canberra will fancy their chances on the fringes of the ruck and slightly wider. Dane Gagai’s struggles with Moses Suli last week were plain for all to see, as was John Sutton looking his age defensively more than once.
They’ll have a devil of a time taking on Canberra’s right edge of John Bateman, Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana. The Raiders don’t run a whole lot of set plays down their right, but they don’t need to because Bateman, Leilua and Rapana don’t outwit the opposition, they overpower them. All they need is early ball, and if Canberra go there early and often they could find joy even if Gagai makes an improvement defensively, which we can assume he will.
The Raiders will also like the look of the match up between their left and South Sydney’s right. James Roberts would have been a serious target if he played, but even with Campbell Graham moving from centre to wing and Corey Allen coming in at centre it’s still a match up which favours the Raiders. Graham has played one game at centre all year – he is a good defender, but the combinations just won’t be there. In shifting Graham the Rabbitohs also lose the best yardage man of their back three, which puts extra pressure on their forwards out of their own end. Like Gagai, Adam Reynolds’ defensive struggles were on show last week and Sam Burgess, for all his enthusiasm and strength, can be prone to overchasing or being dragged out of position.
The Raiders don’t have an abundance of structure to their attack, but what they do have comes down their left. Even before Jack Wighton moved to five-eighth he preferred to operate on the left side of the field, which has only intensified since his switch.
Every one of his seven tries and ten try assists this season have come down the left side of the field – it’s where the Raiders are most comfortable running their attacking structures and Wighton is the most important player within that structure.
Given Wighton is one of the best running five-eighths in the competition, Elliott Whitehead is second in the competition among non-spine players for try assists and Jarrod Croker is the team’s leading tryscorer, the Raiders should be able to run a diverse and complex attack right at where the Bunnies are vulnerable.
Consider the play which led to the Bailey Simonsson try against Melbourne – note how Hodgson acts as the second receiver, the traditional five-eighth’s role, while Wighton comes around where a fullback would normally chime in. It’s a rework on a classic and the kind of thing South Sydney could struggle to deal with.
Simonsson makes the most of his opportunity 👌 First points Raiders!#NRLStormRaiders 0-6#NRLFinals pic.twitter.com/V4GaRvBLf2
— NRL (@NRL) September 14, 2019
But Rabbitohs are far from shot ducks.
They might have limped past Manly, body parts falling off as they shuffled to the finish line, and it might be months since they put together a full, 80-minute performance in a game where both teams had plenty to play for, but form is a measurement of performance over time and we are at the point of the season where there is no time left. Canberra’s form heading into the win over Melbourne was a shocking home loss to the Warriors. That doesn’t mean we throw out the form guide completely, but take it with a grain of salt at this time of year – there’s a reason so many players say the finals is a new competition.
The Rabbitohs don’t need to be great for a month or six weeks or a regular season, they need to be good enough here and now, for one game only, and with the quality of their roster and Wayne Bennett in charge they can absolutely do it.
They’ll fancy their own chances of getting on top of Canberra’s right edge. Bateman is an exceptional defender and Leilua and Rapana rarely miss tackles but the two can be forced into making bad decisions. It’s not as bad as it once was – Bateman’s presence has solidified the edge significantly – but sometimes they can still be found out, usually in the form of flying in like mad things to try and shut the play down early. It’s high risk, high reward stuff, and given how sharp Cody Walker can be and the ball-playing nous of Sutton it may be an area for Souths to target.
Take another look at South Sydney’s first try last week.
Back on the wing and back on the scoresheet! Alex Johnston gives Souths the lead 👌#NRLSouthsManly 4-nil ðŸ°#TelstraPremiership pic.twitter.com/Bw7GCSRf2V
— NRL (@NRL) September 20, 2019
They do so much of their best work off of Sutton, and his combination with Walker is one of their most dangerous weapons. Forcing Leilua and the man inside him, Aidan Sezer, to make complex decisions is the Rabbitohs best path to victory.
Of course, Souths also boast the incredibly dangerous Damien Cook, who’s due for a big performance, and Cameron Murray, and their own combination up the middle, in conjunction with Walker, can break a game open at a moment’s notice.
South Sydney can follow Canberra’s own blueprint from two weeks ago, when the Raiders fast start rattled Melbourne early on. There’s a lot on the line in any prelim, but the stakes are even higher for Canberra. This is the biggest game the club has played in a quarter of a century, the biggest game they have ever played at home in front of what will be the biggest crowd ever seen at a Raiders home game. The entire city is behind them in a way they haven’t been since the glory days.
If the Raiders feed off that energy they could run Souths off the park, but if the Rabbitohs strike fast in the early stages the crowd will get nervous, it’ll suck the energy out of the building and there could be a flow on effect to the players. If the Raiders succumb to the worst side of their best, as they did on occasion in the highly-charged home matches against the Roosters and Sea Eagles in the regular season, there could be trouble.
Having said that, this is Canberra’s game to lose. South Sydney may improve defensively from last week but Canberra’s strengths match up nicely with their weaknesses, and there are points all over the park for the Raiders. Even if the points don’t come, the Raiders can fall back on their superior defence and grind the match out.
Canberra 22 South Sydney 10
First tryscorer: Everything so far has been restrained, this is the part of the flight where things get weird and intense. Canberra and Souths have played in a preliminary final before, back in 1989 (sweats profusely), which Canberra won before going on to win the comp (takes three deep breaths) which means absolutely nothing (gets up and starts pacing around the room), nothing at all (knocks back a full carton of Canberra Milk while planning the Video Ezy comeback we all know is coming). Relax? What? I am relaxed. I’m so relaxed bro, you don’t even know.
We had Johnston picked for the Souths game last week but overthought it, so let’s keep it simple here. Anybody on Canberra’s left edge is a good choice (Wighton, Whitehead, Croker, Cotric) so let’s go with Croker out of respect.
Man of the match: It remains to be seen if Ricky Stuart repeats his decision to bench Josh Papalii, as he did against Melbourne, but it’s worth noting three of Papalii’s five best games in terms of yardage have come when he’s started off the bench. The Raiders prop is the team’s most important forward and always has a say in the result. He’s a safe pick, but a smart one and along with Wighton (if the team’s attack goes down the left as much as we’re anticipating) he’s our pick.
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SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS MELBOURNE STORM
What? There’s two games this weekend? That doesn’t sound right…..
Seriously, it’s strange how little heat there’s been in the lead up to the second preliminary final. The two titans of the league, not just of this season but this century, playing a grand final-quality match a week early? Cooper Cronk either ending his former team’s season again, or his former team ends his career? Latrell Mitchell vs Will Chambers 3.5 – This Time It’s Weird Cause Chambers Is On The Bench? No Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, just to add a little more intrigue? The winner of this one will be favourites in the grand final and could claim Club Of The Decade title.
It’s the kind of stuff that should get the pulse racing and the blood pumping, it should make us want to battle through a broken shoulder and become a part of finals folklore.
But it just…doesn’t. Despite these two being the best sides in the competition all year there’s just not the juice one would expect. If I had to guess why I’d say it’s fan fatigue, mixed with the simple fact that people hate these two teams. Either the Roosters or Storm have played in a preliminary final every season since 2006. This is the third season in a row both of them have made it.
Rugby league’s tribalism is the game’s greatest strength and weakness, and this is where we see the dud side of the coin. People are bigger fans of their teams than they are of the game itself. Don’t try and spin some half-baked line about how bad the SCG is for rugby league – that’s good enough for a Round 19 game against the Titans, but not for a preliminary final.
This could be the game of the year and there are storylines leading into it which stretch back years, with a shared history between the two sides that should make it the hottest ticket in town. Instead, the NRL is giving them away.
It confirms the old adage – it ain’t how good we make it baby, it’s how we make it good. Two terrific sides aren’t enough.
Let’s get to the actual footy, because there’s so much to chew on. Waerea-Hargreaves is a big out – if you’ve been watching Channel 9 over the last few weeks I’m sure you couldn’t help but notice Phil Gould citing how the Roosters win rate goes down without the Kiwi hardman. Not only is Waerea-Hargreaves the Roosters best middle forward, he’s also their steel and their power, the hard edge that takes them from just being metre-eaters and makes them a little more dangerous.
Sio Suia Taukeiaho and Isaac Liu are quality replacements – at any other club, Taukeiaho would be the best forward on the team and Liu is a Test regular for New Zealand. Nat Butcher has improved a lot this year and Zane Tetevano is very capable off the bench, but it’s still a step down and Melbourne’s forward pack is one of their greatest strengths.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona doesn’t have the metre count of some other players but he makes the metres count. Jesse Bromwich is still a very good prop, Dale Finucane is built for the tough stuff and Brandon Smith is a wild and crazy guy, but Asofa-Solomona is the main man the Roosters need to shut down.
I’m expecting this to play out much more like the Storm’s win in Adelaide earlier this year than the Roosters win in Melbourne. The latter was free-flowing and back and forth, the former was tight, tense and dominated by defence. The Storm still have a wrestling reputation but the Roosters are just as good at the dark grappling arts and just as willing to employ them. Barring some kind of opening quarter blitkreig, points will be at a premium.
We know the Roosters will hammer their left edge early and there we will feel the full impact of Curtis Scott replacing Will Chambers. The entire Chambers situation is rather extraordinary – he is one of Melbourne’s longest-serving players and has gone from backline stalwart to possible exit in the space of a few weeks. Beyond wanting to avoid another Chambers-Mitchell showdown, it’s hard to see exactly what Bellamy is going for.
Scott is a solid enough defender and prefers to play on the right, but it’s still a tall order given he’s being parachuted in where the Roosters like to attack the most. Chambers has some scars from his battles with Mitchell, but he got the better of the young Rooster in Origin I while Scott was dominated when he marked up on the Taree man earlier this year.
Despite their dominance in the regular season it feels like the Roosters have been holding something back all year. Players have been rested all through the season with a view to these two weeks here and now.
Everything Trent Robinson has done and every decision he has made – like resting Cooper Cronk in Round 11, or taking it easy with Boyd Cordner, or giving his bench players long minutes when he can – has been aimed at having his team primed for these moments. The Roosters didn’t win the premiership last year because they were the best team every week, they won it because they were the best team when it counted. This is when it counts.
I lean ever so slightly towards Melbourne, almost purely because Waerea-Hargreaves is out, but this is a true coin flip. Of special interest will be the battle of the minds between Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith, which we never really saw in last year’s grand final and will never see again after Saturday night.
Storm 14 Roosters 12
First try scorer: I like the Roosters to attack down their left early with James Tedesco backing up to score off an inside pass from Mitchell.
Man of the match: For Melbourne to win they need to take the middle, and for that to happen they need Nelson Asofa-Solomona to keep doing what he’s doing. The largest man in the world is my pick.
Originally published as Campo’s Corner: Surviving preliminary final week