KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: The story behind the round 2 winners and losers
With round two of the 2021 NRL season in the bag we look at the story behind the stats as revealed by SuperCoach plus.
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Round two was wet and wild and nothing like Round one! However, we have doubled our sample size and the more stats we get the more SuperCoach Plus can help us find value in our trades.
Wilfred Zee and Rob Sutherland tell the story behind the numbers and attempt to predict the future too.
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1. REED MAHONEY MIGHT HAVE TAKEN THE NEXT STEP
He’s floated around for several years now as a “tier down” hooking option but is 2021 finally the year where Reed Mahoney lives up to his potential, both on the field and for KFC SuperCoach? In the past Mahoney hasn’t quite had the highlight reel plays that a Damien Cook or Harry Grant might have, instead forging his fame as a tough, hardworking defender. The hard work is still there, in fact Mahoney’s position-leading 58PPG in base points per game is 10PPG better than what he produced in 2019-20. And on top of this stellar base, Mahoney is adding plenty of ’power’ stats averaging better than 10PPG in tackle busts and offloads combined over the opening two rounds. Two points of caution though. While Mahoney’s base plus power production is arguably replicable, he will, almost certainly. not continue to average a try assist/linebreak assist nor linebreak every game. The other worry for prospective owners is the Eels’ round three bench which includes two utilities, one of whom, Ray Stone, who will likely spend some time in the backrow and at hooker.
2. JUNIOR PAULO MIGHT ONLY BE BUILDING
Paulo has started the season on fire off the back of great work from Mahoney, scoring tries in both weeks off Mahoney passes near the line. He’s also played 58 and 59 minutes in the two rounds so far; impressive numbers for this early in the season. The pre-season chat from Brad Arthur seemed to indicate that Paulo may end up playing 65 or even 70 minutes, so it has to be said – is this just the beginning? Paulo has scored 73 and 57 in base and base attack stats so far, mostly off the back of strong offloading numbers which could certainly continue, based on last year. He could put up a very compelling case to be a top three FRF by the end of the season at this rate!
3. TYSON FRIZELL IS BEING OVERLOOKED
Surprisingly, Frizell started Round 1 being more popular than his goalkicking backrow teammate Mitch Barnett; however, Barnett’s round one heroics saw him more than double in ownership in a week, while Friz only saw a small increase. However, Frizell has scored 78 and 66 in the first two weeks, with just a try contribution as the sole attacking stat. With base of 56 and 58 points respectively, and an additional 18 points and 8 points in base attack stats, Friz is showing shades of 2020 Tohu Harris. It can be difficult to imagine owning both backrowers from the same club but given they score their points quite differently, and their minutes seem much more set than the middle forwards, they could both continue averaging highly independent of the other.
4. TESI’S BREAKOUT GAME
Round two was a good week for Tesi Niu, as he finally nabbed some attacking stats and fulfilled some of the promise that he had dangled in front of owners for so long but not yet realised. Yes, he struggled in defence, but what he offered was an attacking spark, much like the injured Kotoni Staggs often delivered for the Broncos despite their struggles elsewhere. Niu also scored a respectable 39 points in base and base attack stats (despite an unusually high number of missed tackles) as well as a forced dropout. Most KFC SuperCoaches have him for the cash, but Niu could be a viable member of our teams as well, including this week against the Bulldogs – the team that has leaked the most SC points at CTW with centres averaging 56.75PPG against them over the opening two rounds.
5. LEFT SIDE, STRONG SIDE
The Panthers’ left edge features some of the most unpredictable, athletically-gifted, hardworking and just STRONG players – Jarome Luai (avg. 86.5PPG), Viliame Kikau (avg. 84.5PPG), Stephen Crichton (avg. 43PPG) and Brian To’o (avg. 69.5PPG) standing opposite you is the stuff of nightmares for opposition defenders. We’ve seen an increase in attacking volume headed down the left-hand side over the first two rounds as well, with a noted increase in base stats too. Luai in particular is interesting, as he likes to run the ball but he also has a longstanding connection with Crichton and To’o in particular, having often played together in the juniors. Expect this left side, strong side to get even better as the season progresses.
6. LEFT SIDE, STRONG SIDE AGAIN
Imagine being a right edge defender when you have some seriously potent attacking teams that like to favour the left. The Rabbitohs have scored eight tries so far this year, and six of them have come from the left edge of Cody Walker (avg. 69.5PPG), Dane Gagai (avg. 50.5PPG), Alex Johnston (avg. 74.0PPG) and the left side favouring Latrell Mitchell (avg. 92.5PPG). You get the feeling that Johnston in particular is well in the mix for top tryscorer in 2021, and usually wingers who feature on the top tryscorer lists tend to also feature up the top of CTW rankings come end of season. He has a tough match-up this week but Round 4 onwards …
7. DAMIEN COOK REMINDS US NOT TO GIVE UP ON KEEPERS AFTER ONE WEEK
Over 3,500 KFC SuperCoaches will have facepalmed themselves so hard they sent themselves back to last Thursday … or at least tried to go back in time to before they traded Cook out. It was a strong bounce back from Cook, who underwhelmed in round one before showing off just why he has been one of the benchmarks at the hooker position for KFC SuperCoach for the past few years. The 57 points in pure base, and 65 with the base attack stats added on top, is the real positive sign there and admittedly the Rabbitohs may have had to deal with the Sea Eagles trying to monster them through the middle, hence Cook’s increased tackle numbers, but he was running the ball and threatening with every dart out of dummy half. Great signs for Cook owners moving forward.
8. WHO IS HOT AND WHO IS NOT
9. BEN HUNT IS … BACK?
2014 was a long time ago but it was an absolutely glorious KFC SuperCoach season for Hunt, averaging over 70 at a time where it was difficult for even the likes of Johnathan Thurston and Shaun Johnson to reach that mark. There’s one common factor from 2014 to 2021 – Anthony Griffin is now Ben Hunt’s coach again, the same coach who guided Hunt through the Under 20s at the Broncos and seems to have a knack of getting the best out of the talented, but seemingly at-times mentally fragile, Hunt. With Hunt playing with the confidence we’ve seen in Rounds 1 and 2, we may see a return to the Hunt of old, while also the Dragons being dragged off the bottom of the table where plenty expected them to finish come end of season. A huge watch on Ben Hunt moving forward!
10. IT’S MORE THAN A LIDDLE CONCERNING
Let’s not beat around the bush, there are some concerns here. Two tries in two weeks, both with line breaks and one or two tackle busts associated with them, is masking what is a fairly low workrate for Jacob Liddle, as well as a significant drop in minutes. Not on the stat sheet is a significant decline in Liddle’s service once he gets tired, with him seeming to struggle to pass off the ground at times and also his accuracy takes a hit once fatigue kicks in. The question is, if the Tigers keep struggling, how long until Jake Simpkin – who has played 80 minutes both weeks in reserve grade, and stood out while scoring three tries, making 50+ tackles each week as well as plenty of probing runs – gets a shot in first grade?
11. RYAN JAMES IS ALREADY THE FEEL-GOOD STORY OF 2021
He hadn’t played first grade football for two years due to injury, but Ryan James is back and looking fantastic. Getting 41 minutes and 39 minutes over the first two rounds, James has made the most of his time on the field, scoring 42 and 54 in base and base attack stats, while also finding a try and two line breaks. With a great negative break even, even with ongoing question marks over the minutes in that stacked Raiders pack, it’ll be hard for non-owners to say no to James!
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: The story behind the round 2 winners and losers
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