Round 3 preview: NRL arm wrestles a beautiful thing as Tigers tighten the screws
STIFLING defence from Wests Tigers has Nick Campton singing the praises of defence and the glories of low-scoring matches. Check out his previews of the final seven games of round three.
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THE Tigers have scored 16 points this season and won twice while the Raiders have scored 56 points and lost twice, proving the truth of the old cliche your under-12s coach used to bellow out at every session — defence wins matches.
Low-scoring grinds have a tension and desperation all their own, and while some might groan at the thought of a tryless game or a scoreless half, so long as things stay really, really low there’s a novelty factor that makes it worthwhile.
There’s only been one 0-0 draw in premiership history, a grim stalemate between Canterbury and Newtown in Round 5, 1982. It was part of a horror stretch for the Jets — they were held scoreless three out of four weeks from round two to round five and had just 23 points from their first five games that season.
A little over 6700 lunatics watched from the Henson Park hill as the two clubs performed the rugby league equivalent of bashing their heads against the wall.
Because the Newtown Jets are the spirit animal of every rugby league trainspotter, they were also involved in the only 1-0 game in premiership history. Nine years before, under the coaching of Jack Gibson, the Jets beat the Dragons by the narrowest margin possible at the SCG in round eight, courtesy of a Ken Wilson field goal.
The lowest-scoring Origin match was Game One of the legendary 1995 series. A Wayne Bartrim penalty goal was all that separated the two sides at the SFS, and the 2-0 margin is unlikely to ever be bettered.
The first scoreless international was the Third Test of the 1929-30 Ashes series, which finished 0-0 in controversial circumstances after Australia was denied a try in the final moments.
In terms of the NRL era, the lowest-scoring game was in round 13, 2007, when an Origin-depleted Melbourne side downed the Warriors 4-2.
The greatest near miss in low-scoring footy history, however, came exactly one year before in round 13, 2006.
St George-Illawarra hosted Parramatta at Kogarah Oval and, on a rainy Friday night, the match remained scoreless until the 70th minute when John Morris kicked the Eels to a 1-0 lead.
Ben Hornby struck twice in the next 10 minutes with two field goals of his own.
A 2-1 score line would have made rugby league history but the Eels made the ill-advised decision to put in a truly moronic grubber 10m out from their own line in the final seconds.
Matt Cooper picked up the scraps, scoring the easiest try of his career, and for that I will never forgive him. An 8-1 final score is fine, I guess, if you like that sort of things, but 2-1? They would have made movies about that one.
BULLDOGS v PANTHERS
The Bulldogs have too much talent, especially in the middle of the field, to bottom out completely but even though we’re only two rounds in they look to have some serious problems in attack. Moses Mbye looks likely at fullback, but the team is still finding ways to inject him into the play, while Kieran Foran is extremely game and tenacious but doesn’t have the capacity right now to create the bulk of the points the team requires. Dean Pay’s move from Matt Frawley to Jeremy Marshall-King indicates the new coach recognises the shortcomings of the opening weeks. Canterbury’s outside backs are fine finishers and the four of them are safe as houses, but the quartet are finishers, not creators.
As such, Penrith shape as a bad stylistic matchup for the blue and whites. The Panthers are far from the finished product, but they do have great speed across the park and the ability to score points rapidly. Unless the game turns into a low-scoring grind, the Panthers should have too much ammunition for the Bulldogs — and even if it does get bogged down, the men from the west have the forward power to match Canterbury and the kicking game to grind them down.
WESTS TIGERS v BRONCOS
The Tigers might not have their attack primed right now but given their incredible commitment, resolute scrambling defence and iron will they’re a chance against absolutely anybody. Having said that the loss of Elijah Taylor, their best player over the past two weeks and the beating heart of the team, is out for a few weeks and, while they have the best forward depth the club has enjoyed in several years, Taylor’s role as a defender and leader can’t be overstated.
I will not write the Tigers off against Brisbane because after these first two weeks how the hell could you? The Broncos, with their fast-paced style and renewed confidence from last week’s miracle, are a bad stylistic match-up but so were the Roosters and so were the Storm. Rainy conditions are forecast, which will play into the Tigers’ hands due to their superior kicking game and a riotous crowd is expected at Campbelltown Stadium. Regardless of the outcome, another close match looms.
RAIDERS v WARRIORS
The Warriors are an inmate recently released from the insane asylum. They’re trying to keep things on the straight and narrow, they really are. All those things they used to do — giving up leads, making dumb errors, going months without winning? That’s in the past man; they don’t do that kind of stuff any more. They’re trying their very best to leave all that behind, and for the past two weeks they’ve been able to do just that.
The Raiders are still knee-depth in their own madness. All that stuff the Warriors used to do, the Raiders are all about it. Back-to-back 30-28 losses, with both winning scores coming in the final five minutes, is enough to send anyone round the bend. Canberra have the firepower to beat the Warriors, and New Zealand have a terrible record in Canberra, but given the trajectories of the two teams picking this one is impossible. If the Warriors relapse and go back to their former insanity this could break point-scoring records.
RABBITOHS v MANLY
The part of Manly’s big win last week that seems the greatest indicator for future success was the performance of their middle forwards. Over the past two seasons the Sea Eagles have relied heavily on Martin Taupau and Jake Trbojevic, which is fair enough, those two are their two best forwards. But by adding Addin Fonua-Blake, the improving Lloyd Perrett and the rejuvenated Shaun Lane the Sea Eagles now have a deep forward pack that can keep the pressure on the opposition throughout the entire match. Given their tendency to fade in and out of matches last season, such consistency is a major boost.
South Sydney are in the opposite basket — apart from Sam Burgess and Cam Murray they really lack for forward progress in the middle. The Burgess twins can have a strong run here and there but given their habit for errors, which has reached meme-able status, they’ve become more trouble than they’re worth. Manly’s forward dominance and their superior spine has them in good stead to win their second game of the season.
EELS v SHARKS
Parramatta’s complete disintegration over their past 120 minutes of football is extremely concerning for anyone that tipped them for success this season, a sorry group that includes yours truly. No team has ever conceded over 50 points in a match and won the competition in the same year and the Eels’ total and utter collapse is the kind of loss that can torpedo an entire season even thought it’s only round two. The blue and golds built their top four campaign last year on relentless intensity, aggression and strong defence and all three ingredients have been absent from their first two matches.
Conversely, Cronulla’s issues have followed them from last season to this one. Errors and penalties undercut the Sharks at every turn and the same lapses of discipline killed them last week against the Dragons. Their other issues aside — including Matt Moylan’s inauspicious start, the Josh Dugan and Valentine Holmes situations and Paul Gallen’s struggles — are secondary to these mistakes which have reached epidemic levels.
TITANS v DRAGONS
Regardless of their lack of fortune with the video ref last week, Gold Coast’s attack currently begins and ends with Ash Taylor. He’s good enough with ball in hand to conjure enough tries to beat anybody, without him the Titans lack the class to score on a consistent basis. Despite the rise of Jai Arrow and the return of Jarrod Wallace it remains to be seen if the Titans have the 80-minute effort required to take down the unbeaten Dragons.
St George-Illawarra’s forward pack is good enough to carry them through any early season attacking teething problems but given Gold Coast’s leaky defence this shapes as the opportunity for a breakout performance from Ben Hunt — while his ball playing and kicking have both been strong his running game has yet to be showcased in the Red V.
ROOSTERS v KNIGHTS
There were flashes of what the Roosters are trying to achieve in last week’s win over Canterbury as James Tedesco, Cooper Cronk and Luke Keary combined well on occasions throughout the 80 minutes. It’ll take a few more weeks for the Tricolours to hit top gear, but the signs are promising. Against Newcastle, they have another game in which to develop and even though the Knights are two from two, they do have weaknesses the Roosters are able to exploit.
Newcastle’s two wins have been stirring, and they are very much a team on the rise, but they’re not the finished product just yet. As much as they exploited Canberra’s edge defence last week their own defence out wide left much to be desired, especially down their left, and given the Roosters have done their best work down their right, it’s a favourable match-up for the home side.
Originally published as Round 3 preview: NRL arm wrestles a beautiful thing as Tigers tighten the screws
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