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Racewatch: Tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Two beautifully-bred fillies will make their race debuts at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday and Shayne O’Cass thinks they can quinella the race. Get Shayne’s race-by-race tips and analysis.

Shayne O’Cass
4 min read
July 19, 2024 - 7:36AM
Sensational Wind (leading, circled) and Mergeila (third, circled) were both impressive in their final trial leading into their debuts at Rosehill on Saturday.
Sensational Wind (leading, circled) and Mergeila (third, circled) were both impressive in their final trial leading into their debuts at Rosehill on Saturday.

Two beautifully-bred fillies will make their race debuts at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday and Shayne O’Cass thinks they can quinella the race.

Here is Shayne’s race-by-race analysis, plus his suggested bets, for the 10-race card.

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Race 1: 2yo Handicap (1200m)
SENSATIONAL WIND (8), the $1.1 million Easter Yearling, is by I Am Invincible out of Gust of Wind who most people agree ‘should’ have won the Cup! Anyway, as for this Katsumi Yoshida-owned filly, she has trialled like the quality racehorse she is bred to be. Speaking of quality and well-bred, MERGEILA (7) – the Justify x Invincibella filly – has likewise trialled liked she would be a Guineas filly and lots else besides. Maybe overlooking the obvious here? MAWJOOD (2). Wow was his debut, beating a nice horse easily.
Bet: Sensational Wind to win, quinella 7,8.

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Race 2: TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2, 1100m)
ZARIZATYCOON (7) is a brother to Tags; Ganya Williams trained/trains both. Tags made it through to a Country Championships Final (on paper anyway) and that’s no mean feat but is it a little premature to declare this gelding his equal or better? Whatever the case, he is unbeaten and untapped. It’s not easy to win a Country Championships qualifier in the area where PALAZZO PRINCE (5) races but he has more X-Factor than a fair few of his future rivals. How can you knock KING LARRY (6)? This is a GOOD Highway!
Bet: Zarizatycoon to won, box trifecta 1,5,6,8.

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Race 3: Midway Benchmark 72 (1300m)
UNION ARMY (15) resumes in a race so suitable that it should be the Ryan/Alexiou Plate. How about 1200m at home, two ripper trials, no weight, etc, etc? Surely he will get a suitable tempo, all he really needs is a fair (run on) track. SILVANITO (2) has three seconds, a fourth to Elson Boy and a possible ‘forgive’ alongside his name since he was bought from Godolphin and given to Nathan Doyle. NOSEY PARKER (3) ran considerably better than ‘7th of 13’ first-up. HERB (8) will be charging late as usual.
Bet: Union Army to win, Nosey Parker to place.

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Race 4: Benchmark 72 (1500m)
CARRAZANA (4) is going to be a horse we might see in some very good races in the new season. Some of the things he did in his first four starts are hallmarks of a stakes-horse, IMHO. Once he gets out to a mile, he could really come into his own. Taking him on-board simply on ‘potential’ on Saturday. This is a lovely race for HEADLEY GRANGE (2) who is up and running – well, better than that, he is a last start winner. No knock on PURE ALPHA (1). IMPOSANT (9) was panels above them in that easier race at Newcastle last time.
Bet: Carrazana to win.

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Race 5: 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 78 (1200m)
MISS JENNIFER (9) has been with Danny Willians for the past four of her 18 career starts, following up wins at Goulburn and Randwick with eye-catchers at Rosehill and Randwick (again). Simple and sad fact is that she is going to lose more than she wins given her pattern but if they are able to get back and win, she could just reel them in this time. I was all over OUR BELLAGIO MISS (5) last start and while she was beaten on her merits, she ran her usual honest and competitive race, the same race that MOLLY NAILS (6) was very good in.
Bet: Miss Jennifer each-way.

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Race 6: Schweppes Handicap (1100m)
James McDonald wins at something like 34 per cent for Ciaron Maher (stats that also include David Eustace) and he is on one of Maher’s on the weekend that might just seal the deal on another Premiership. The form of French and German form of import SIVKA BURKA (1) speaks for itself and the trials were fantastic. That said, she is giving weight and race fitness away to some very handy hoses in CONTEMPORARY (2), KEY LARGO (5), etc, etc.
Bet: Sikva Burka to win.

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Race 7: Benchmark 78 (2400m)
AGE OF SAIL (2) was beaten (into third place) on merit last start by STRATHTAY (1). It was hardly a thrashing but it was certainly the right and fair result. It is more or less the same weight scenario with Strathtay getting 3kg off for Benjamin Osmond. The difference is Age Of Sail has barrier 2 this time and is third-up ready to peak. SAJC Chairman’s winner and SAJC Derby fourth-placegetter LOCO (5) split Strathtay and Age Of Sail and could easily win himself. It’s that type of race.
Bet: Age Of Sail to win.

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Race 8: Listed Winter Challenge (1500m)
CHARTERHOUSE (3), just for the record, ran in the Irish National Stakes and Middle Park Stakes Group 1s as a two-year-old. Fast forward to more recent times and he has done some good things here in Australia; in fact, he ran a pretty good race in The Ingham. His ‘problem’ is that he gets so far back that he becomes reliant on outside factors. Over to you J-Mac. KING OF THE CASTLE (6) arguably should have won the Winter Stakes. Great draw again. WAR ETERNAL (11) and TESTATOR SILENS (13) are well capable of figuring.
Bet: Charterhouse to win.

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Race 9: Benchmark 88 (1300m)
McDonald and Maher again; this time – and for the first time – McDonald rides the Ballarat-housed Rosehill specialist CHORLTON LANE (3) who has raced there/here four times in 11 starts for two wins and a third. Track is getting into his sweet spot too and throw in barrier 4, he will have no excuses. A dry track is the key to FELIX MAJESTIC (6) running a million times better than he did in the Bob Charley Stakes. Gee he trialled well the other week. Old Cuban Royale is prone to a boilover.
Bet: Felix Majestic to place.

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Race 10: 3yo+ Colts, Horses and Geldings Benchmark 78 (1200m)
SMASHING EAGLE (14) sets himself some enormous tasks in his races by getting back as far as he does but if you give him a fair track, a good tempo and just the perfectly timed ride, he could run over the top and win most Benchmark races. I reckon FORECASTER (16) is the roughie of the day. I know he went pretty ordinary first-up but it was a Heavy 8 over 1100m. I like that it is firmer underfoot this time and Ash Morgan is sticking by him – for good reason.
Bet: Smashing Eagle, Forecaster each-way, quinella 14,16.

Originally published as Racewatch: Tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

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Original URL: https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/racewatch-tips-analysis-for-rosehill-gardens-on-saturday/news-story/d156e7183f061cc49a5b48de87b7a92a