NewsBite

THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers, track conditions for today’s racing

The stars are back, with the nation’s best sprinters contesting the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington today and Via Sistina taking on Ceolwulf and Fangirl in the Apollo Stakes at Randwick.

Ray Thomas
6 min read
February 15, 2025 - 7:36AM
G1 Lightning Stakes day | Via Sistina v Ceolwulf | 12 'Self-trumpeter' votes dished out

Summer racing doesn’t get much better than Royal Randwick and Flemington on Saturday.

The Randwick meeting is of autumn carnival quality with four outstanding feature races and although some field sizes are lacking in numbers, it is surely a case of quality over quantity.

Take the Group 2 Apollo Stakes (1400m) for example. There are only eight starters but this is a highlight race featuring a clash between the nation’s best racehorse, Via Sistina, emerging superstar Ceolwulf and perennial big-race contender Fangirl.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

Then there is the showdown of Golden Slipper winner Lady Of Camelot and Group 1 winners Manaal and Lady Shenandoah in the Group 2 $300,000 Light Fingers Stakes, and the return of the brilliant mares Joliestar and Magic Time in the Group 2 $300,000 Expressway Stakes.

Randwick’s program is complemented by a competitive Group 3 $250,000 Triscay Stakes that includes unbeaten mare Clear Thinking, Commemorative, Kundalini and Bonita Queen, while leading Golden Slipper contender Pallaton takes on a very good field of two-year-olds in the Pierro Plate.

• Ray & Duff’s Randwick tips: Joliestar ‘ready to explode’

At Flemington, the Group 1 $1 million Black Caviar Lightning has attracted some of the best sprinters in training including crack colts Switzerland, Growing Empire and Traffic Warden.

But they won’t have the 1000m sprint to themselves, with speedsters I Am Me, Mornington Glory and Way To The Stars and the ever-reliable Mazu all capable of mixing it with their younger rivals.

• J-Mac: Why Switzerland has big edge on rival colts in Lightning

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with the chance of some showers, mainly in the morning, and a forecast top temperature of 30c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 4m

FLEMINGTON
Weather: Cool, partly cloudy day with a high chances of showers and a forecast top temperature of 18c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: True

EAGLE FARM
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with the chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 29c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 0.5m out

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Mild, cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 23c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 3m out 1000m to winning post, true remainder

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACENET EXPERT TIPS

• RANDWICK: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

• FLEMINGTON: Brad Waters’ best bets, race-by-race tips and analysis for Flemington on Saturday

• FLEMINGTON: Cameron Happ’s best bets for Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day

• EAGLE FARM: Graeme Carey’s best bets, race-by-race tips and analysis for Eagle Farm on Saturday

• MORPHETTVILLE, PINJARRA: Aaron Mills’ best bets for Pinjarra, Heath Pope’s best bets for Morphettville

• LAURIE’S LONGSHOTS: Laurie Sainsbury’s best value bets for today

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

BE WARY

Randwick’s rail is out 4m after being in the true last week. The track played reasonably well seven days ago but with some rain about in Sydney and Randwick already a soft 5, expect riders to be getting off the fence in the straight. Flemington’s rail is in the true but there is some rain forecast during the morning. The track is rated a Good 4 but there is a chance for a downgrade. Watch the early races closely for any discernible track bias.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

ROYAL RANDWICK

THE BEST BET: PERFUMIST (Race 10 No.7) is in a rich vein of form, reeling off four successive wins over summer – and she seems to be getting better with every start. She ripped around the Rosehill 1500m to easily beat Oh Diamond Lil and the form has been franked with the runner-up winning her next start. Perfumist drops back slightly in distance to the Randwick 1400m, a course and distance she won over easily two starts back. Perfumist gets in well at the weights after the claim and is set to continue her winning momentum.

THE NEXT BEST: YORKSHIRE (Race 4 No.1) is a very promising four-year-old from the John O’Shea-Tom Charlton stable. He has won five races (and two placings) from his seven career starts and goes to Randwick chasing a hat-trick of wins after impressive efforts at the Wyong stand-alone meeting and Rosehill. His races have been well spaced this summer and he’s improving with racing. Bad luck is running is his biggest danger.

VALUE BET: DISNECK (Race 9 No.1), trained by Bjorn Baker and a stablemate of Perfumist, was the form sprinter of the Sydney summer reeling off three Randwick 1200m wins in succession before going to stakes level at Rosehill and running on strongly to finish a close fourth to Willaidow. He’s back to his favourite track and right grade on Saturday, the 1300m won’t trouble him, and he’s advantaged by apprentice Anna Roper’s 3kg claim. Disneck is value around $6.

THE WHISPER: LADY SHENANDOAH (Race 7 No.3) is a huge street corner tip. This gifted filly has only had four starts for two minor placings as a two-year-old before successive wins last spring including her outstanding effort to win the Group 1 Flight Stakes by more than three lengths. She’s been airborne at the barrier trials in recent weeks including her easy win over crack colt Switzerland in a Warwick Farm heat two weeks ago. She’s primed to sprint well fresh.

• ‘Keep Cummings at Leilani Lodge’: Ed’s plea as Anthony fights for career

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

FLEMINGTON

BEST BET: ROYAL INSIGNIA (Race 7 No.3), a striking chestnut colt by champion sire Written Tycoon, has improving rapidly with every race and goes to the Hayes Stakes on a three-race winning streak. There was a lot to like about the way he finished fast to win the Manfred Stakes at Sandown when resuming. Trainer Grahame Begg has expertly placed this three-year-old, putting him in the right races where he has gained confidence and learned how to race and win. The one to beat again.

NEXT BEST: REVELARE (Race 1 No.3), a talented son of champion racehorse and sire So You Think, is working his with through the grades with relative ease this summer. He has reeled off three successive wins although he hasn’t quite learned how to put a field to the sword yet. Revelare has brilliant acceleration and can seize control of a race very quickly. He should get punters off to a flyer in the opener.

VALUE BET: QATARS CHOICE (Race 9 No.9) has always been highly regarded but was spelled after a two-starts winless winter campaign. She resumed at the Canterbury midweeks and unleashed an impressive burst of speed to beat Scintilla easily. The runner-up has won twice since to underline the merit of Qatars Choice’s first-up. She then went to Randwick and was held up at a vital stage when second to a rampant Point And Shoot. He has won again since to frank the form. Qatars Choice goes to Flemington under the radar and at very generous double figure odds.

THE WHISPER: GROWING EMPIRE (Race 8 No.10) is an outstanding three-year-old who was unlucky not to break through at Group 1 level last spring. He endued a tough run and was caught in the last bound by Southport Tycoon in the Manikato Stakes, ran bravely when a close third in Bella Nipotina’s Everest, then held his ground when third to Switzerland in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. Growing Empire has looked sharp at the trials, he goes well fresh and is effective on the Flemington straight course.

• Goldrush Guru returns to scene of Derby triumph

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Catch The Glory $5-$3.60, All Too Lucky $21-$11
Race 2: Adolphus $6-$4, Tapa Kick $5-$4.80, Dale $11-$8
Race 3: Pallaton $3.20-$2.40 with a bet of $4000 at $2.30, Skyhook $8.50-$7
Race 4: Yorkshire $2.90-$2.40 with a bet of $2000 at $2.40, Medatu $26-$13
Race 5: Joliestar $2.50-$2.70-$2.50 with bets of $5000 at $2.40, $4000 at $2.70, $4000 at $2.50, $3000 at $2.40, Magic Time $3.60-$2.90-$3.20, Iowna Merc $15-$6.50
Race 6: Clear Thinking $5-$3.80, Commemorative $6-$5 with a bet of $2500 at $5, Spring Lee $8-$5
Race 7: Lady Of Camelot $4.40-$3.30, Manaal $6-$5
Race 8: Via Sistina $2.40-$2 with bets of $10000 at $2, $4500 at $2, $4000 at $2.10, Fangirl $4.20-$3.80 with a bet of $2000 at $4.20
Race 9: Disneck $6-$5 including a bet of $5000 at $5.50, French Endeavour $8-$7, Lavish Empire $26-$12
Race 10: Perfumist $2.80-$1.95

• SATURDAY MARKET MOVERS: Bjorn Baker runner firms from $2.80 into $2

FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Revelare $2.90-$3.10-$2.90, Kings Valley $6.50-$5.50, Miss Tarzy $7-$6
Race 2: Sword Of Legacy $3.90-$3.40, Shining Smile $4.60-$3.90, Blethyn $5.50-$4.20
Race 3: Fancify $4.20-$3.50, Miraval Rose $6-$5.50, Molly Bloom $10-$7, Bizot $11-$8
Race 4: Verdad $7-$4.20, Ziryab $8.50-$6, Smokin’ Princess $8.50-$7.50
Race 5: Shesallshenanigans $8-$4.80, Veloce Carro $10-$5.50, Wiggum $7-$6.50
Race 6: Chorlton Lane $3.90-$3.10, Rise At Dawn $6-$4.60
Race 7: Royal Insignia $3.90-$3.50-$4 with bets of $3335 at $4, $2500 at $3.90, $2000 at $4, Sepals $8-$6.50, Henlein $9-$7.50, Feroce $8-$7.50, Goldrush Guru $31-$14
Race 8: Growing Empire $5.50-$3.80, I Am Me $11-$7.50 with a bet of $2280 at $8
Race 9: Cilacap $6-$4.60, Another Prophet $9.50-$7.50
Race 10: Sunshineinmypocket $3.20-$3, Euphoric $13-$9, Capper Thirtynine $18-$13

• TIPS FROM THE BIG BOOKIES: The bagmen reveal their best bets for today’s racing

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

INTERSTATE MAIL
Eagle Farm Race 2 No.11 JOVITA
Eagle Farm Race 5 No.3 AGE OF SAIL
Morphettville Race 2 No.8 AD ASTRA
Morphettville Race 5 No.3 JUSTA STAR

PROVINCIAL MAIL
Newcastle Race 1 No.1 GAEILGE
Newcastle Race 6 No.2 OUR UPTOWN GIRL

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers, track conditions for today’s racing

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

More related stories

Original URL: https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/the-last-say-tips-market-movers-track-conditions-for-todays-racing/news-story/8d45cec1bc8ef3f3b61976b63d017390