Charlie Curnow’s progress in knee rehabilitation has Carlton bullish about 2021 prospects
While Zac Williams and Adam Saad have stolen the headlines, the return of Charlie Curnow in 2021 will be just as important for Carlton. The latest on the gun forward’s rehab from a knee injury will have Blues fans smiling.
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Charlie Curnow’s mouth-watering training sessions in recent months have Carlton expecting a full return in 2021 as the Blues scheme to add more stars to their recent recruiting raid.
Curnow was shut down for the season in May after repeated setbacks to a patella injury that included a stress reaction and multiple surgeries including one after a basketball accident.
FULL LIST ANALYSIS: CAN BLUES RETURN TO FINALS?
But Curnow made significant progress in recent months and if the season had been pushed back another month might have even made a remarkable bid to play in October.
He was almost back in full training, with Carlton believing hublife and the 24/7 professionalism as well as access to physios and medical treatment fast-tracked his rehabilitation.
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For all his enticing gifts he is still yet to take a season by storm, kicking 34 goals in 2018 from 20 games.
As one of the club’s sixth-year players next year he will return to training with the Blues on January 6, with 1-4 year players from clubs back at training on Monday December 7 for a two-week training block.
Remarkably given they will sign GWS midfielder Zac Williams and hopefully trade for Essendon’s Adam Saad, the Blues have ample cap space to secure a third established star.
Carlton has been linked to Collingwood’s Jordan De Goey, Essendon’s Zach Merrett and Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver.
Merrett and Oliver are both expected to stay at their clubs, but the Blues have salary cap capacity should another star midfielder fall out of another club.
The Blues have picks seven, 27, 45 and next year’s future picks but will need to use seven in some part to secure Saad.
Carlton is expected to eventually come to terms with Eddie Betts for a farewell season and has last year’s No. 17 draft pick Brodie Kemp ready to start his AFL career after a season rehabbing a knee injury he was drafted with.
In retrospect they should have reciprocated Ollie Wines’ interest in the last trade period but were more interested in closing a deal for Tom Papley which fell through late.
For several years Carlton has been banking cap space and front-ending deals for emerging stars to squirrel away salary cap room for a day when its list would mature.
That time is now, with Jack Martin having earned over $1 million this year and a similar figure in 2021 on a deal that could earn him over $3 million in five seasons.
Those kind of front-ended deals mean the Blues can absorb the $800,000 per season for Williams and $650,000 for Saad.
ANALYSIS: WHAT SAAD, WILLIAMS WILL ADD TO BLUES
David Teague sold a grand vision to Adam Saad during Carlton’s pitch, of the defender surging through the middle of the MCG and pumping the ball inside 50.
It was a captivating message to Saad and one that helped clinch his move on a five-year $3.25 million dollar deal.
Teague knows Saad isn’t the downhill skier some have painted him out to be.
Not when he can look at the tapes of him keeping footy’s most dangerous small forwards Liam Ryan and Dan Butler to a single goal in their match-ups this year.
Saad might be the best two-way defender in the competition, and the issues he made plain to Essendon as he left were much stronger than his unwillingness to play on the last line of defence.
But what is so intoxicating about his potential at Carlton is his ability to be the attacking halfback the Blues defence will allow him to be.
Carlton’s year ended as it has always has for most of this decade — in disappointment, losing four of the last five games to slump from finals contention.
But to secure free agent Zac Williams and Saad — subject to a trade — immediately makes Carlton one of the summer’s most hyped teams.
The Blues would love a 23-year-old Eddie Betts to fall out of the sky, but Williams and Saad couldn’t compliment their needs any more perfectly.
ROBBO: REST OF FOOTY WORLD IS LAUGHING AT ESSENDON
SAAD’S HALF-BACK BOUNCE
Carlton knows Saad is more than capable of shutting down his man, but just as Richmond gets bang for buck when Bachar Houli plays higher, they want maximum impact.
He is such an all-round defender – elite for disposals, uncontested possessions and metres gained this year, and above average for pressure points and tackles.
Against Carlton he kept Eddie Betts quiet closer to goal and had 11 intercept possessions from his 16 touches, but still found a way to hit a season-high 131 KFC SuperCoach points.
A few weeks later in a more offensive role against GWS he had an incredible 758 metres gained from his 20 possessions, seven of which were score involvements.
He is at his best bouncing off halfback, changing angles of attack and hitting up hard-leading forwards.
At Carlton he will have Lachie Plowman and Tom Williamson as the defensive stoppers, and can share that rebound duty with Sam Docherty and the returning Nic Newman.
WHAT WILL CARLTON PAY FOR HIM?
The Herald Sun understands the threat to take him into the pre-season draft, like Jack Martin the year before him, is absolutely there should a trade get nasty.
But he would want a trade to be brokered so Essendon gets something in return.
And the Blues should consider this as a sum gain from the past two drafts even if they have to hand over pick 7 and get a later selection back.
Last year they secured Martin for nothing and secured 192cm midfielder Brodie Kemp at pick 17 and Sam Philp, who has already debuted, at pick 20.
If they can in effect get Martin, free agent Zac Williams and Saad for the outlay of pick 7, which will likely push back to about pick 10, it’s an absolute steal.
A reminder — they gave up a pick 10 for Lochie O’Brien. So don’t get too greedy, Blues fans.
THE WILLIAMS EFFECT
Williams is an elite halfback flank who Carlton and the player himself both want to play midfield.
GWS whacked him on the way out as a player who only won 10 clearances on preliminary final day because it was a wet day which suited his lack of a big tank.
The Achilles issues he had this year are surely more of an issue, with Williams managing more than 20 games in only four of his eight seasons.
But in the back half of 2019, when he played serious midfield time, he had some monster games.
Against Sydney in Round 20 he had 32 possessions, 10 clearances, five centre-square clearances, six tackles, 452 metres gained and 12 ground ball gets.
In the prelim he followed it up with 10 clearances and 16 contested possessions amid his 25 possessions.
They are the statistics of a serious player who has the speed to get out of contests few others at Carlton possess.
DOES IT EXTEND PATRICK CRIPPS’ CAREER?
Absolutely, but so does the move of Sam Walsh from a wing into the centre square.
Suddenly they have the big body in Cripps, the young star in Walsh (who had 21 contested possessions in Round 18) and the speed demon in Williams.
It might push Marc Murphy out to the wing, but with Ed Curnow still the flint-hard tagger and Will Setterfield having his best year yet, it is something to build on.
This year Cripps had 54 centre square clearances, Curnow 30, ruckman Marc Pittonet 20 and Setterfield was the next best with only one per game (17).
Now they have two players who can boost that number and hopefully provide a more robust midfield that can stop those horror 30-point runs against.
WHERE DOES IT LEAVE O’BRIEN AND DOW?
O’Brien played a single game in 2019 for seven possessions as a wingman and Paddy Dow only three games for an average of 38 SuperCoach points and nine possessions.
O’Brien might at least look at Walsh’s move into the centre square as a chance to steal some wing time.
The question will be whether another rival believes in Dow and his junior stardom enough to try to lure him across because it’s hard to see him getting serious game time in 2021.
HOW DO ALL THE TALLS FIT IN?
If Charlie Curnow and Caleb Marchbank are fit to play in Round 1, how the heck does David Teague fit all his talls into his team?
Teague played ruck-forward Tom de Koning in seven of the final eight games and he looks a beauty, but Marc Pittonet is the first ruckman.
Curnow and McKay are automatic selections when fit, so it pits Casboult and de Koning in a battle as the back-up ruck-forward.
Then Mitch McGovern needs to find a role, as does pressuring half forward Jack Silvagni.
Silvagni is seemingly happy to stay despite trade rumours and McGovern is so high-priced no one would jump at a trade.
The Blues love the recently re-signed Marchbank but can he play in the same backline as Liam Jones and Jacob Weitering, when Lachie Plowman often plays on the third tall as a lockdown defender?
So many questions for Teague and yet all of them are positive. The biggest issue will be containing the hype over summer.
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Originally published as Charlie Curnow’s progress in knee rehabilitation has Carlton bullish about 2021 prospects