The Phantom’s Round 22 Captain Analysis: Gawn the man as VC but a left-field captain selection could be the difference in your preliminary final
Max Gawn into Brodie Grundy is, again, the most obvious combination in Round 22. But there might not be room for obvious in your league. The Phantom looks at all the numbers
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If it were mid-season, this would be short.
Max Gawn into Brodie Grundy. The end.
But it’s SuperCoach preliminary final week and with many teams full of similar players, captain selection could be the difference between a grand final berth and an early mad Monday.
Sure, backing against either of the two big men in a friendly Round 22 fixture is a risk, going with something different mid-round might be the only way back for some.
Everyone, however, needs to start with Gawn as VC against the Swans on Friday night.
While the Melbourne big man has only posted scores of 113, 82 and 96 in his past three matches against Sydney, John Longmire, out of necessity, is running a makeshift ruck brigade of four-gamer Hayden McLean, defender Aliir Aliir and swingman Sam Reid.
Keep an eye on your head-to-head match-up as the weekend unfolds but there are the other standout options.
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Patrick Cripps (Carl)
V St Kilda, Saturday afternoon
The trend continues. Carlton’s superstar midfielder has now posted a SuperCoach ton, followed by a score of less than 100, for the past 11 weeks. After a 134-point performance against the Tigers last week, recent history suggests he’ll dip below the 100-point barrier this week. But, looking further back, his record against the Saints might outweigh this year’s trend. Cripps has finished with scores of 116, 156, 157, 124, 90 and 172 in six career matches against the Blues’ Round 22 opponent. Saint Jack Steele will be hanging around but, on his day, Cripps is almost unstoppable. If you need a game changer in your head-to-head, this could be the one.
Lachie Neale (Bris)
V Geelong, Saturday afternoon
The Cats bounced back last round but in two of the previous three weeks they were beaten in the midfield, conceding big scores to Nat Fyfe (144), Michael Walters (137) and Liam Shiels (136). If Geelong is even just slightly off, Neale, who scored 132 in his last meeting with the Cats, and his Brisbane teammates will take full advantage at home.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel)
V Brisbane, Saturday afternoon
Speaking of Cats-Lions matches, Dangerfield has posted scores of 117, 165, 131 and 166 in the past four he’s played in — two of which were at the GABBA. The star Cat’s two scores of less than 100 in the previous two weeks before his 137-point performance against the Kangaroos are a concern but he can score as big as any on his day.
Brodie Grundy (Coll)
V Adelaide, Saturday afternoon
The last time Grundy took on the Crows at Adelaide Oval, he finished with 33 disposals, 23 contested possessions, 12 clearances — all career-highs — and 141 SuperCoach points. And, no, I’m not talking about the next player on this list, they are the numbers of Grundy, the 203 ruckman. Adelaide didn’t play two ruckman that night but Grundy should still be too good with Sam Jacobs and Reilly O’Brien. There’s no hiding from the fact that any point-of-difference manoeuvre, which avoids Grundy as C, could backfire spectacularly. But it’s better to go down fighting.
Adam Treloar (Coll)
V Adelaide, Saturday afternoon
The next guy on the list has been posting some impressive numbers of his own this season. The star midfielder, who tallied 36 disposals and 120 points in the corresponding fixture last season, has posted nine SuperCoach tons on-the-trot to sit as the seventh-ranked player in the competition after 21 rounds. And there’s unlikely to be any hard-tag from the Crows despite only Bulldogs Jack Macrae and Josh Dunkley scoring more points in the past five weeks.
Nat Fyfe (Freo)
V Essendon, Saturday night
An in-form Bulldogs midfield dominated in the 104-point demolition of Essendon last week, with Dunkley (153), Macrae (137) and Lachie Hunter (127) all finished with 120 points or more. And that was with Bomber Dylan Clarke trying to run-with Macrae. After posting scores of 154, 104, 144 and 145 in his past five matches, it’s likely there is another big score coming from the Fremantle skipper this week. A safe bet if you need to overlook Grundy.
Josh Dunkley (WB)
V GWS, Sunday
With returning GWS tagger Matt de Boer likely to go to Macrae or Marcus Bontempelli before Dunkley, the 22-year-old could be in for a big afternoon. The ball-magnet, who had 16 disposals in the first quarter last week, is averaging 126 SuperCoach points per game since his permanent move into the midfield in Round 7, with six scores of 130 or more.
Jack Macrae (WB)
V GWS, Sunday
Thanks to an incredible run of form following the Bulldogs Round 12 bye, only Grundy has tallied more SuperCoach points than Macrae this season. The star left-footer has averaged 138 points per game since Round 11 but there’s a chance he will get de Boer on Sunday, who is likely to prove much harder to get away from than Clarke was under the roof in Round 21.
Toby Greene (GWS)
V WB, Sunday
Here’s your Hail Mary play. Despite the inclusion of star Josh Kelly, expect Greene to stay firmly entrenched in the Giants midfield after posting five consecutive SuperCoach tons since Round 16. And that will ensure another big score from the 25-year-old, who finished with 131 points in his last clash with the Bulldogs.
James Sicily (Haw)
V GC, Sunday
And here’s another. Against a struggling Suns forward line on Sunday, Sicily is likely to roam free in the back-half, just as he did last Friday night against the Hawks. The intercepting-defender has only scored more than 91 points twice since Round 11 but on both occasions he’s finished with a score of 140 or more.