The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Essendon’s current group, its future and everything in between
The Bombers have teased us for years about their trajectory, the first step is a finals win, but when will they be ready to truly challenge? JON RALPH breaks down the Dons’ list here.
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Essendon spent the final seven weeks of the season doing everything in its power to erase the gains of its first 17 weeks.
At that stage the club was in fifth position despite a pair of last-gasp losses to Port Adelaide with vast improvement from Nic Martin, Sam Durham, Mason Redman, Kyle Langford and Jye Menzie.
And yet in those final seven weeks with 16 injuries the only victories came against the Roos and West Coast amid a series of crushing defeats – Geelong (77 points), the Dogs (41 points), GWS (126 points) and Collingwood (70 points).
For Essendon to beg for its supporters patience – again – then watch GWS rebuild itself within a season with a new game plan and new young stars was especially galling.
So Essendon remains one of footy’s most frustrating sides with a 7000-day finals winning drought and so much ground to make up on footy’s contenders.
But the fact remains Essendon did make significant progress in Brad Scott’s first year with a heap of exciting kids stockpiled and some positive moves in the free agency space.
If the five or six improvers next year are Elijah Tsatas, Ben Hobbs, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid, Harrison Jones and Nik Cox then the Dons will truly be going places.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 8/10
Let’s put on the record that Jade Gresham is being paid a vast amount of money ($700,000 plus) for a goal-a-game mid-forward with below-average kicking.
Yet if the proof will be in the pudding on Gresham’s free agency contract, the rest of the club’s trade period transitions were a riotous success.
As a net result from the trade period the Dons gave up Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and turned him into Xavier Duursma, Gresham and full back Ben McKay.
That is the beauty of free agency, where cap space is as valuable a commodity as first-round picks.
McKay arrives as the big bullocking full back the Dons so desperately need, giving Reid time to justify the lofty wraps placed on the 202cm defender.
Goldstein is at worst insurance who will teach the impressive Nick Bryan some new tricks and more likely a valuable second ruck given Scott prefers to play a twin ruck combo.
LIST HOLES
AFL games are won from the midfield.
The biggest question for the Dons is whether a midfield unit so talented on paper can actually beat up on rivals while also racking up big possession tallies.
Zach Merrett does both – gets it 30 times and cuts his opponents to ribbons with elite disposals.
Brad Scott will hope along with the accumulators – Darcy Parish, Jye Caldwell, Will Setterfield – he can also find some out-and-out weapons.
Ben Hobbs made solid gains in year two with hopes inside Essendon he can be a Luke Parker type – a rugged contested beast who can go forward with solid forward craft to hit the scoreboard.
And Elijah Tsatas (four games) can explode from a stoppage.
But the Dons still need Jake Stringer as a mid-forward game-breaker to be at their best with hopes Archie Perkins can one day be a similar type of player.
Duursma arrives on a four-year deal to lock away one wing with Martin on the other, and it allows Sam Durham to play some inside mid as well as in attack.
Essendon hopes his game-winning last term playing forward in the Dreamtime match is the prototype for his 2024.
The defence finally has a Mick Martin-style gorilla to wrestle and scrap and claw at his opponent in McKay, with Jordan Ridley, Jayden Laverde and Jake Kelly providing aerial cover and Andy McGrath and Mason Redman the defensive run.
Former wingman Cox, the rising star favourite in round 17 of his debut season, played as an attacking defender against Collingwood in round 24 with five intercept possessions and that seems the way forward for 2024.
Up forward Kyle Langford (51 goals) emerged as an elite marking target while 2022 best-and-fairest winner Peter Wright kicked 19 goals in 10 games post-shoulder reco.
Stringer disappointed – 21 goals in 17 games, while Perkins has huge admirers within the club but kicked only 18 goals in 23 matches and was rated poor for F50 pressure.
When the Dons run and gun – as they did for three quarters on Anzac Day – they are intoxicating.
But despite gains with their game style the full-ground defence left plenty to be desired and a percentage of 89.7 per cent didn’t lie.
Only Hawthorn, West Coast and North Melbourne gave up more points.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Essendon’s capacity to keep an excellent draft hand was a huge win given its list inclusions, with its draft hand starting at picks 9, 31, 35 with later picks 61 and 88.
The Dons will take only three draft picks and play with 38 primary listed players and four rookies after upgrading Kaine Baldwin.
Clubs continue to ask Essendon and Geelong (pick 8) if they want to trade for multiple picks slightly later in the national draft.
So the Dons could trade nine and shuffle back to 12 (Sydney), 13 (St Kilda) or 14 (Adelaide) but also secure an extra early pick.
Would Adelaide trade 14 and 20 for Essendon’s nine? Quite likely.
The Dons could take 14, 20 and 31 then trade 35 into next year’s draft to strengthen their 2024 hand.
If they keep pick nine players likely to be available around the Dons pick if they hold it include powerful 193cm forward Nate Caddy, 198cm key defender Connor O’Sullivan, 186cm wingman Darcy Wilson and 184cm midfielder Caleb Windsor.
Exciting pressure forward Jayden Davey remains the unwrapped Christmas present, fit to play off a second knee reconstruction as early as round 4 last year but instead given the full year to build confidence in his body.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Jake Stringer looked lame across his 17-game season, told to bide his time before a senior return in round 3 then perplexingly played as a sub who couldn’t survive 120 minutes against GWS in round 23 because of a foot issue.
He eventually needed surgery for the plantar fascia issue and should have had it earlier.
Essendon could complain fans and media are too harsh on Stringer, who comes out of contract in 2024.
But in 2021 he averaged 2.2 goals a game and 3.2 centre square clearances.
So we judge him by his best and hope he can get back there next year, and given it is a contract year you can bet he will be at his best.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2025
Essendon has spent years hoping Ben King might move south and had a big crack at Harry McKay before he re-signed last year. They have 12 months to assess the Langford-Jones-Wright trio before they decide whether to launch again.
For the first time in a long time they don’t desperately need a key defender, so can bide their time aware they still have vast cap space if they find a player of need.
Essendon has taken enough high picks (Tsatas at pick 5), Hobbs (13), Cox (8), Perkins (9) and Reid (10) in the past three seasons that they can justify giving away a first-rounder again.
Essendon met with North Melbourne’s Tarryn Thomas this trade period and had a solid crack at Cam Zurhaar previously, who is now a free agent.
Zurhaar probably would have moved to Essendon if they hadn’t sacked Ben Rutten to highlight their instability.
If Gresham is worth nearly $800,000 a year Zurhaar will get paid more than him given his tackling pressure, capacity to kick multiple goals (34 goals in 2022) and centre square presence.
Ben McKay’s front-ended six-year deal sees his salary hit $1.4-$1.5 million in the first year, which is a very sexy figure.
But lost in the detail is that in the final three years of his deal he is on stuff-all.
If you don’t bank cap space you lose it so it’s just creative accounting.
CAP SPACE
The Dons would have ponied up as much as $2.4 million for their quartet of acquisitions but had $3 million a year of cap space even before the new AFL collective bargaining agreement.
But the new CBA – which increases the salary cap 30 per cent by 2025 – means the Dons still have a war chest for acquisitions as they scan next year’s free agency market.
The Dons are firm in their belief that without a northern-states academy, free agency remains a weapon they must use to keep competitive.
Dylan Shiel’s $800,000-a-season contract expires this year while Stringer hasn’t been paid what he might have under an incentive-laden deal.
He is very likely to wait until deep into the season to show the Dons what he is worth as he attempts to secure the last big deal of his career but has worked his butt off over the off-season to give himself the best chance.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
The premiership drought is 23 years and the finals winning drought is 19 seasons.
So let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
But the Dons have a coach who isn’t getting sacked any time soon and the ASADA scandal is well behind the club.
In other words, it finally has the stability with the Brad Scott-Craig Vozzo-David Barham leadership team to build towards that elusive finals victory. Finals a chance in 2024 but flag window opens from 2025.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS TOP 100 IN 2023
Zach Merrett (9th), Darcy Parish (43rd), Nic Martin (63rd), Mason Redman (85th), Jordan Ridley (98th).
TRADE BAIT
Harrison Jones signed a one-year deal on modest money so if he can finally showcase his potential he gives suitors and Essendon good reason to reward him.
Sam Durham is also out of contract so it would be smart business to sign him up over summer but with enough incentives that he can get paid for a monster year.
Cox and Nick Hind are uncontracted, while Tsatas hasn’t signed on past his initial two-year extension.
What becomes of the uncontracted Shiel, who nearly moved to St Kilda but after foot and knee surgeries now faces a task over summer to get into elite shape?
Andy McGrath is fiercely loyal and an excellent leader, having helped marshal the troops for a fortnight-long American training camp after last year’s Ibiza adventure.
How does new list boss Matt Rosa quantify his price given the No. 1 overall pick plays half back as a sturdy, reliable 23-possession-a-game free agent?
He is the glue of this club and you don’t lose a player of his character over a contract squabble.
Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Essendon’s current group, its future and everything in between
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