Why Sydney shouldn’t worry about Essendon’s tough stance on Joe Daniher
Essendon’s immediate hard-line stance on Joe Daniher would’ve been music to the ears of disheartened supporters. But would it make Sydney squeak? Not really. Here’s why.
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Essendon’s immediate hard-line stance on Joe Daniher would’ve been music to the ears of disheartened supporters.
After a weekend spent sulking they suddenly had a reason to puff their chests out.
List manager Adrian Dodoro declared the club had no intentions of trading Daniher — or Orazio Fantasia, for that matter — and expected both to lace up for the Bombers in 2020 and hopefully beyond.
Dodoro said the contracted stars, when fit, were worth 100 goals to a club light-on for firepower elsewhere.
The early posturing was bold, and it came from the man who has brokered some of the biggest deals across the past two trade periods.
But would it have made Sydney squeak? Not really. The Swans would be foolish to pay overs for Daniher, and they know that.
Why? Well, what price did Richmond pay for Tom Lynch last year? Nothing, because Lynch was a restricted free agent.
What’s Daniher’s status next year? A restricted free agent.
While Essendon would hypothetically have the right to match an offer in 12 months’ time, history says that simply won’t happen.
Clubs and managers remain bemused at the fact that the league persists with the ‘restricted’ component of free agency.
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If Daniher followed Buddy Franklin’s route to Sydney, as a restricted free agent, then Essendon would be compensated with a first-round draft selection tied to its ladder spot.
If they finished eighth again, they would get pick 13 and one more season out of Daniher.
Essendon would cling to the hope that Daniher could fall back in love with Tullamarine and re-sign, as a homesick Aaron Francis did when his trade request didn’t eventuate in 2017.
That would be the primary risk for Sydney, with the situation similar to Lachie Neale last year.
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Neale was 12 months away from free agency, but Brisbane Lions preferred to strike a trade with Fremantle while they could, rather than run the risk of waiting.
Last year the Bombers handed over picks 9 (2018 draft) and 12 (2019 draft) for Dylan Shiel and pick 37 (2019 draft), with GWS profiting the equivalent of pick 3 under the points formula.
The Bombers probably paid a touch too much in that shouldn’t inflate the market.
Melbourne’s return of pick 6 and 23 for Jesse Hogan is a more accurate guide of Daniher’s worth.
Sydney has pick 5 and list expert Chris Pelchen reckons another pick in the 15-20 range should just about seal the deal.
Clearly, Sydney would prefer to secure Daniher this week. But Essendon’s threat of holding Daniher to his contract won’t make them sweat.
Originally published as Why Sydney shouldn’t worry about Essendon’s tough stance on Joe Daniher