KFC SuperCoach Plus article: 11 stats you need to know for Round 8
Good news for Dustin Martin owners — and non-owners — but there’s more bad news for Patrick Cripps. Check out this week’s must-read KFC SuperCoach stats.
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From defensive cheapie Martin Frederick to score and price projections and more bad news for Patrick Cripps owners, here are the 11 key stats you need to know ahead of Round 8:
1. More than 96,000 coaches will welcome Dustin Martin back into their teams this round after sitting him on the bench for a week (about 17,000 coaches couldn’t wait and traded Dusty). If you don’t have him, he is another trade watch — if he can’t hit his 157 break even against the Cats, or a similar BE the next week against GWS, he could be available for as cheap as $420k in Round 10. One stat to note, however — the last time Martin faced the Cats he scored 145 KFC SuperCoach points. That was in last year’s Grand Final.
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2. We have a new leader in the lowest break even table with Tom Highmore losing his crown after several weeks on top as he awaits selection for his third AFL game. Exciting Port Adelaide defender Martin Frederick ($123,900 DEF) has a break even of -88 after scoring 88 and 74 in his first two games. SuperCoach Plus projects a price rise of almost $75,000 if he can score 80 in the Showdown this weekend.
3. Speaking of Highmore, he had 30 disposals and 14 marks in the VFL to remind Brett Ratten of his talents, but it’s going to be hard to break into a winning St Kilda line-up. Other VFL standouts included Magpies Oliver Henry (22 disposals, three goals) — bad news for Finlay Macrae? — and Giant Jake Riccardi, who had a massive 40 disposals and 19 marks in a new role in defence.
4. Frederick is the most traded-in player this round so far, by a huge margin. He has come into more than 17,000 teams, with coaches cashing in rookies Errol Gulden (3450 trades), James Rowe (2781) and Heath Chapman (2680). More than 400 clearly frustrated coaches have traded Patrick Cripps to Frederick and one bad game is enough for 476 coaches who have hit the trade button on Taylor Walker despite Tex averaging 107.9 — the third-highest ranked forward.
5. One factor weighing on the minds of Walker’s 50,000 owners is his high break even of 132. SuperCoach Plus projects a score of 91 against Port Adelaide which would result in an $18k price drop. And it doesn’t get any easier after that with games against West Coast (in Perth), Melbourne and Richmond to follow the Power. If he averages around 80 across that stretch Walker’s price will fall to about $420k, wiping out most of his gains since Round 3. Is it time to get off the Tex train?
6. Max Gawn has the highest break even in the comp — he needs to score a whopping 223 against the Swans to maintain his current price. Gawn has hit the 200 barrier before but that would be a career high- the week after scoring 63, his lowest total in two years. A 120 this weekend would shed $45,000 from Gawn’s price, and he could drop another $40,000 the week after before his price stabilises at about $640k. But if you’ve got Max you aren’t planning on trading him, so his price isn’t really an issue.
7. The high break even to watch for bargain hunters is Bombers defender Jordan Ridley (204). Ridley was the highest-scoring player in KFC SuperCoach before he copped a concussion against Brisbane. At that point his price had climbed to $614,4000 - and 10,000 coaches traded him in at that price. After an injury-affected 31 against the Lions and 87 in his comeback game, his price has dropped to $540,800. If Ridley scores 105 against the Giants he will lose another $43,800 and be available for just under $500k before his price starts climbing again.
8. The second-most popular recruit is Tiger Riley Collier-Dawkins ($123,900 MID), who impressed in his first game with 76 points against the Bulldogs. An injury to Trent Cotchin would appear to create an opening for Collier-Dawkins in the medium-term but many coaches who traded in Lachie Jones after one game only to see him injured in week two know the risks of picking a rookie a game early. Better to wait and see him play another game against the Cats then we can assess RCD before his price changes after game three. SuperCoach Plus is projecting a $67,000 price change but that won’t happen until after Round 9.
9. Riley Thilthorpe, Shai Bolton and Cam Guthrie are all popular trade targets this week but the clear No.3 is Demon Steven May. The Demons interceptor’s price has dropped $99,000 from Round 1, helped by a lowly seven in Round 4 when he was injured early in the game. But he has bottomed out, with a 145 in Hobart sending his break even down to just five - SuperCoach Plus is projecting a $39,000 price jump after May’s next game so if you want a backline bargain, jump on now.
10. Patrick Cripps owners, look away now. The Blues co-captain has posted just one score over 100 this year and has a three-round average of 70.7 despite winning plenty of the footy — see an explanation here for why his scores are so low. And history says we are unlikely to see a return to form this week. Cripps has played the Bulldogs eight times for a career average of 85.0 — his worst against any side. last time he played the Dogs Cripps had 13 disposals and 56 KFC SuperCoach points.
11. One of the best features of SuperCoach Plus is about to come into its own. The bye planner allows you to see which members of your squad will be missing in each week of the bye rounds from R12-14. The final bye round could catch many coaches out with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy both having the week off along with popular defenders Rory Laird, Jake Lloyd and Luke Ryan and midfielders including Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Errol Gulden. Take a look now to see where you could be in strife — bearing in mind scoring over the byes is best 18 scores only — and plan your trades between now and then accordingly. It could be a reason to think twice about getting May this round.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Plus article: 11 stats you need to know for Round 8
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