KFC SuperCoach trade guide: Bargain defenders, best picks for Round 8
Still deciding on your Round 8 KFC SuperCoach trades? Here are all the rookie, premium and value moves to consider. Plus exclusive analysis from Fantasy Freako.
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Three of the most popular cash cows in the competition face a significant price drop after their next match, while another has suffered a serious injury.
Errol Gulden (break even 86) and James Rowe (BE 77) are likely to fall in price, while Braeden Campbell (BE 67), who played in the VFL on the weekend, could also drop in value after his next match. Heath Chapman (BE 85) has been sidelined long-term with a shoulder injury, so he needs to be offloaded as well.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE ALL THIS WEEK’S TOP TRADE TARGETS
In terms of bubble boys ahead of Round 8, Martin Frederick was the obvious choice in defence after scoring 88 and 74 points in his first two games. His ball use has been the highlight of his game, posting a disposal efficiency of 92.3 per cent over the past two rounds – the highest percentage of the top-125 disposal winners in the competition.
But the concern over his job security was brought to the fore on Friday when coach Ken Hinkley confirmed Frederick’s omission from the Power’s 22 for Showdown 49.
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If you’re looking to cash in Matt Flynn, then Riley Thilthorpe is an option in the ruck. The added bonus of Thilthorpe is his DPP status, allowing you to switch him with Rowan Marshall in the forwards should you have the Saints ruckman in your team. The Crows have scored from four of the six times they targeted Thilthorpe inside 50 over the past two rounds.
As for one-gamers, Riley Collier-Dawkins made his long-awaited AFL debut in Round 6 against the Western Bulldogs and was workmanlike in the midfield – finishing with 14 disposals, 11 contested possessions, five clearances, five tackles and 76 points. More importantly, from a SuperCoach points of view, he won 69 per cent of his possessions in a contested manner. To put that figure into perspective, only Hugh Greenwood has a higher contested possession rate among midfielders (75 per cent) – although the sample is small after just one match. Collier-Dawkins also attended a team-high 15 centre bounces.
Moving forward, Collier-Dawkins’ job security in the short-term should be good, even though Dustin Martin will return to the side this week. Martin’s return will be offset by Trent Cotchin missing with a hamstring injury. Dion Prestia is also set to resume in the coming weeks after a knee injury.
Ryan Byrnes came into the Saints side and was solid without hitting any great heights, with the one-sided nature of the match somewhat hurting his score. He finished with 18 disposals, 16 uncontested possessions, one score assist and five score involvements against the Hawks. He’s looms as a decent target should you decide to offload a rookie midfielder or Rowe, via a dual-position swing.
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There’s a fire sale in defence this week and there are two clear standout options to consider.
There’s likely to be a groundswell of interest in Steven May after he racked up a season-high 145 points in Round 7 from 25 disposals, 14 marks, seven intercept possessions and 10 spoils. With an injury-affected seven points against Geelong in 4, May’s season average is slightly skewed as a result. If we take that score out of the equation, his average of 103 in full games ranks equal-sixth among defenders. The Demons are flying and they are the No.1 intercept team in the competition.
However, a restructure in defence is likely in Round 8 after Adam Tomlinson suffered a season-ending knee injury. If Simon Goodwin introduces a like-for-like replacement, then May’s role remains the same. Should a smaller defender come into the team, then May could be asked to play more of a lockdown role. So, if you’re willing to pay a little more for May next week, it may be wise to wait one more round. All eyes will be on team selection.
Unlike May, Caleb Daniel’s 19 points against Brisbane in Round 4 wasn’t injury-affected, more a case of a real stinker! He reminded SuperCoaches of his fantasy worth on the weekend though, scoring a season-high 117 points against Richmond from 34 disposals, 19 uncontested possessions and seven intercept possessions. His kicking game was also back to its best – recording a season-high kicking efficiency of 94 per cent.
May has a breakeven of just five points ahead of his clash against the Swans, while Daniel’s is slightly higher at 51. If you own Changkuoth Jiath, you could actually make a small profit by trading him to one of May or Daniel. Jiath’s numbers have dried up, collecting just 13 disposals in two of his past three games. It was hoped that he could end up being a season keeper, but there are now a few question marks.
Alternatively, Heath Chapman owners could move him on as well after he suffered a shoulder injury on the weekend which is likely to keep him out for up to three months. He had a high break even of 85 points anyway, so he needs to go.
May and Daniel are two different players, with May relying on his marking and intercept play to get the points on the board. Daniel is a playmaker, and the Bulldogs look to get the ball into his hands at every opportunity. If we look at handball-receives among defenders this season only Jarman Impey ranks higher.
In terms of picking which defender to target, you can’t really go wrong with either player. May potentially has a higher ceiling, while Daniel should reward you with 90-110 points most weeks.
Below are the leading defenders for handball-receives per game. Impey, Bailey Dale and Nick Hind make the list, even though they’re forwards in SuperCoach. The trio are playing in defence in 2021. Likewise, Harry Perryman, a midfielder in SuperCoach, has been deployed in defence.
Whatever you decide, best of luck for the round ahead!
TRADE GUIDE: IS THIS THE BARGAIN OF THE CENTURY?
— Tim Michell and Al Paton
Little Caleb or big Stevey?
It is the $400,000 question every KFC SuperCoach will be asking this week.
Daniel returned to form in a big way against Richmond on Friday night, posting a season-high 117 and resuming his role as the No.1 kick-out option for Western Bulldogs.
It was just the diminutive Dog’s second KFC SuperCoach ton of the season but affirmed what a bargain he is ahead of Round 8 at a price of $412,800.
May’s price has fallen even more sharply after he copped an elbow from Tom Hawkins and scored seven points against Geelong.
The initial prognosis for the Demons backman was 2-4 weeks on the sidelines due to concussion and a painful eye socket injury, but he returned after only one week out.
After posting a score of 145 against the Kangaroos the “SuperCoach bargain” sign is flashing above May’s head heading into Round 8.
He has bottomed out at $408,600 and has a break even of just 5 heading into the Dees’ clash against Sydney.
With many players fielding low-scoring rookies on field like Heath Chapman (28 points this week) and James Rowe (36), the ability to jump to a premium-scorer for just $400k is a rare gift from the KFC SuperCoach Gods.
Will you get May or Daniel, or both? Or one of the other cheap premiums on offer this week.
Scroll down to see all this week’s top trade targets.
CALEB DANIEL ($412.2k)
PROS
— Proven consistency as a KFC SuperCoach scorer: Daniel averaged 99.1 in 2019 and a career-best 101.5 last year. In those two seasons, 24 of Daniel’s scores were 90-plus. Reliability is severely underrated in KFC SuperCoach.
— A Round 13 bye: Most coaches will find it easier to field the required 18 players in Round 13 than Round 14. Trading in Daniel means you will have a premium defender available for the toughest of the bye rounds and you shouldn’t have too much trouble covering him for his week off.
— Kicking efficiency: It would come as no surprise that Daniel’s season-best 117 against Richmond came when he had a kicking efficiency of 93.8 per cent. Daniel is one of the best kicks in the AFL and has recorded a kicking efficiency of 77 per cent or higher in the past three seasons. That’s a stat the number crunchers at Champion Data love when assessing KFC SuperCoach scoring.
CONS
— Isn’t guaranteed kick-outs every week: Bailey Dale’s successful move to defence has impacted Daniel’s KFC SuperCoach scoring, largely due to Dale taking 15 kick-outs in the opening six rounds. Bailey Williams, who is currently injured, has also been handed kick-out duties this year, as has former Hawk Taylor Duryea.
— He doesn’t have the ceiling of other KFC SuperCoach defenders. Daniel’s consistency is attractive, but if you want a player who will pump out 140s and 150s he’s not your man. Daniel’s top score in 2019 from 10 tons was 124 and he only twice reached 120 from those 10 triple-figure totals. From nine hundreds last season, he reached 120 three times.
STEVEN MAY ($408.6k)
PROS
— Almost exclusively has kick-out duties for Melbourne, a big source of KFC SuperCoach points. He took 20 kick-outs in what was effectively four games to Round 6, playing on from 19 of those.
— May proved himself as a KFC SuperCoach premium in the run home last year when he posted six tons in the last seven rounds. He only went below 90 twice from Round 5 onwards.
— Intercept marking and intercept possessions are rewarded in KFC SuperCoach and these are two of May’s greatest strengths.
— Low ownership: That’s going to change this week, but as of Round 7 May featured in only 0.8 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams. Trading in a POD (point of difference) can be what sets you apart in a league match-up or helps your efforts to climb the overall rankings. In contrast, Daniel features in 16.3 per cent of sides.
CONS
— How many cooks can you have in the kitchen? Jake Lever is scoring like a premium defender and playing with greater freedom, while Christian Salem has gone to another level. There’s only 3300 points on offer every game and Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca eat up a large chunk in Demons’ matches.
— There will always be the threat of a lockdown role. May potentially takes on Harry McKay (Round 9), Aaron Naughton (Round 11) and Joe Daniher (Round 12) before his Round 14 bye. If his job is more defensive, it will almost certainly affect his scoring. Hopefully Adam Tomlinson steps up so May can zone off.
— The Round 14 bye. Brodie Grundy (55 per cent of teams), Rory Laird (54 per cent), Max Gawn (52 per cent), Jake Lloyd (33 per cent) and Clayton Oliver (28 per cent) share the same bye as May. Make sure you won’t struggle to field 18 come Round 14 before you trade in May.
TIM’S VERDICT: Steven May. It would be a bit rich to say otherwise wouldn’t it, after trading him in at $507k after Round 3. It’s going to be a long week watching other KFC SuperCoaches jump on May at a bargain price. So much so that I’m considering burning another trade to make him my D6 ... again. It will $158k to trade Heath Chapman to May — which is more than we anticipated — but it’s going to be near impossible to resist. Daniel is a great option too, but I think May has more scoring avenues.
ROUND 8 TRADE TARGETS
CUT-PRICE PREMIUMS
Andrew Brayshaw $507,700 MID
Disregarding the two matches he was tagged this year, Brayshaw is averaging 121.4 points. That puts the former No.2 draft pick in uber-premium territory. He appreciated $28,200 after finishing with 33 disposals and 121 points in a significant loss to West Coast, but is still available for under $510k. The only negative — besides the possibility of opposition attention — is that he has the dreaded Round 14 bye, which may scare some rank-focused coaches off.
Tom Mitchell $508,100 MID
Is close to $500,000 this week, on its face great value for a player who averaged 113.5 last year and 129 in his Brownlow year. But after posting a 135 in Round 1 Mitchell has struggled to hit those heights in 2021, averaging 93.5 in his past five games. Does a 105 against the Saints hint at a return to form? He certainly doesn’t have any trouble finding the footy.
Josh Kelly $508,600 MID
Expert KFC SuperCoaches — including SuperCoach investor Dan Begala — have been watching Kelly with interest, waiting for a game like the one he produced against the Crows on Saturday. After being used as a half-forward for the first six rounds (average 90.8) Kelly was back on a wing and responded with 27 disposals, 10 marks, a goal and a season-high 127 SuperCoach points. After shedding more than $100,000 from his starting price, he won’t get any cheaper than this if that kind of form — and role — continues.
Tim Taranto $490,900 MID
Kelly’s Giants teammate was a popular mid-price starting pick but if you missed the boat it’s definitely not too late to get on. Taranto has been handy rather than outstanding over the first six rounds but he exploded with 35 disposals, seven tackles and 139 points. There aren’t many players under $500k with that kind of scoring power.
Travis Boak $550,000 MID
If you don’t trust Leon Cameron, Boak is a great set and forget option for a very attractive price. In fact, I’m not sure why he’s that cheap after scoring five 100-plus totals in his first six games, three of them over 120. Boak missed the Power’s loss to Brisbane with a quad issue but the club is confident he’ll return this week.
Bailey Smith $441,000 MID
We found another potential sub-$450k bargain. Bazlenka could be a big benficiary of Josh Dunkley’s injury at the Bulldogs, and we saw last year what kind of scores he can put up with more time in the guts. The Dogs midfield was beaten on Friday night — we probably won’t say that often — and he scored 97 KFC SuperCoach points, his best return since Round 1, from 27 disposals and a goal. He might not match Jack Steele or Clayton Oliver most weeks but he is a huge upgrade in raw points each week from a rookie like Sam Berry or Finlay Macrae.
Shai Bolton $479,400 FWD/MID
Since a bizarrely quiet game against Sydney Bolton has scored 110, 110, 99 and 121. Some SuperCoaches are worried about him being pushed back to a forward role when Dustin Martin returns but with Trent Cotchin set to miss time with a hamstring injury, the Tigers will need his centre clearance spark. Currently ranked as the eighth-best forward, the Tigers playmaker could be great buying at under $480k (break even 66).
Rowan Marshall $528,900 RUC/FWD
The return of Paddy Ryder had the impact many feared on Marshall, who spent a lot of Saturday’s game against the Hawks at full-forward. He booted two goals and scored 86 KFC SuperCoach points, but he’s definitely a player to keep an eye on, especially if his price gets under $500k, given he showed last year he can score well playing alongside Ryder. Put him on your watch list for now.
BEST ROOKIES
Martin Frederick (PA) $123,900 DEF BE: -88
Our advice last week was to give Frederick another week to see if he could back up his excellent debut performance, and he did exactly that against the Lions. Even more impressive was the fact he showed he can score in a big loss after Port did as they pleased against the Saints the week before. But, unfortunately, he’s been dropped. After scores of 88 and 74 he was set for a big price rise (projected to shoot up $74.4k by SuperCoach Plus) but it’s time to look elsewhere for now.
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Nick Murray $102,400 DEF BE: -39
Murray was swung forward in Adelaide’s heavy loss to GWS — the club where the tall developed as part of its academy — and managed to kick one of the Crows’ four goals for the match. He boasts a relatively low break even and is at basement rookie price, but a tall defender/forward with questionable job security isn’t what you want in a cheapie pick. Besides, we already have enough non-scoring rookies on our defensive benches.
Nathan Murphy (COLL) $123,900 DEF BE: -28
Murphy’s incredible courageous mark on Saturday will earn him plenty of browny points from the coach and probably more senior opportunities. But his scoring power appears limited - putting up 47 and 55 in his first two games even with respectable tallies of 15 and 14 disposals. Add the fact it’s easier to score in wins and that makes Frederick the preferred defensive rookie option this week.
Riley Thilthorpe $202,800 RUC/FWD BE: 25
It was always going to be tough for the No.2 draft pick to back up his five-goal debut and he found the going a lot harder against the Giants. But it’s encouraging that he can still score 55 points without kicking a goal (10 disposals, three marks). His dual-position status could make him a handy player to have in your side but is that flexibility worth $200k plus?
Riley Collier-Dawkins $123,900 MID
Richmond fans and KFC SuperCoaches have been waiting a while to see RCD in action, and he lived up to the hype with a fantastic debut game against the hottest midfield in the AFL. Collier-Dawkins picked up his first touch via a holding the ball free kick and continued in that vein for most of the night, scoring 76 points from just 14 touches (11 contested plus five tackles). As with all rookies its safest to wait until they have played two games before trading them in but with Trent Cotchin set to miss a stretch of games he is set for a good run in the Tiger midfield.
Ryan Byrnes $123,900, MID
Collier-Dawkins has been the talk of the KFC SuperCoach community but second-year Saint Byrnes is well-and-truly flying under-the-radar. He’s highly rated at the club, however, and aftercoming an early season injury, Byrnes, who averaged 120 points per game at NAB League level in 2019, was straight in after two impressive VFL performances. And he carried his form into the senior team, tallying 18 disposals and nine marks in his second AFL game. Coach Brett Ratten praised the 20-year-old’s run and spread following the loss to the Hawks. Keep him in mind for next round.
Nick Bryan $123,900 RUC
If you aren’t interested in paying up for Thilthorpe, Bryan could be your man. The 19-year-old fared better than his 202cm, 87kg frame (he looked a lot bigger than that on the TV) suggests, tallying 12 disposals, 19 hitouts, four clearances and 51 KFC SuperCoach points from just 61 per gametime on debut — spending time off the ground with an ankle issue. Essendon number one ruckman Andrew Phillips missed the Blues clash with injury with no timeframe on his return, so he is one to watch if he can hold his spot. A downgrade from Flynn to Bryan ahead of Round 9 would be mighty tempting if the Giants ruckman is unable to break back in.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach trade guide: Bargain defenders, best picks for Round 8
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