KFC SuperCoach 2021: The Phantom answers the burning questions ahead of Round 11
Zac Williams has jumped back into KFC SuperCoach calculations afer a move to half-back — and he’s available at an insane price. The Phantom answers this week’s burning questions.
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With the bye rounds fast approaching, it’s a very interesting week for KFC SuperCoach.
Do you upgrade even if that player is going to miss next week? Or is now the time to make money?
They are the tough questions, we’ll get to them later.
For now …
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Were you right about Tom Green, Phantom?
I’m not one to pump my own tyres up - no, really - so I’ll leave that for you to answer.
I will give you some numbers, though.
Forget the opening month of the year. Green spent more time off the ground, or inside-50, than he did on the ball and he was dropped in Round 2. The 20-year-old then scored 88 KFC SuperCoach points from 64 per cent game-time in Round 5 before another quiet week.
But what he’s produced since Round 6 proves I’m not as crazy as you all think I am.
With his game-time and centre-bounce role increasing significantly, Green has posted three KFC SuperCoach tons in the past four weeks – with his latest effort a 27-disposal, two-goal, 123-point best-on-ground performance against the Eagles.
Despite his 102-point four-round average, Green still might struggle to get to my 105-point Clayton Oliver-like second-year prediction but the numbers are aligning.
In games 10 to 15 of his career, Oliver posted scores of 41, 98, 88, 83, 109, and 139.
Green made his 15th senior appearance in Round 10 and his past five scores are 88, 59, 111, 104, 71 and 123.
That’s 458 for Oliver, 456 for Green.
The Melbourne star then went on to pass three figures in 15 of his next 20 games with only one score of less than 91.
You’re going to check his price, aren’t you? It’s $440k
TRADE GUIDE: FORWARD LINE FINALLY TAKING SHAPE
OK, enough ‘me time’, Phant, what should we be doing this week?
It all depends on your situation.
For some, making money will be a priority this week in order to be able to follow through on the bye-round trading plan – yes, you should have one.
For others, upgrading to a player who will have a week off in the next two will help just as much with flexibility and on-field options come Round 14.
For me – at this early stage anyway – I’ll be up upgrading Tom Powell to Jordan Ridley, and swinging Rory Laird into the midfield, this week.
I’d love to go straight to a big gun in the middle but I don’t have the cash, and trading in Jack Steele will make it even tougher in Round 14.
And Ridley, who recorded his second KFC SuperCoach ton since returning from concussion, has bottomed out at $484k.
Ahead of the first bye-round next week, I’ll be looking to cash in Matt Flynn and upgrading James Jordon to a Round 13 premium. Despite the huge price tag, I’ll be looking at Marcus Bontempelli.
Further down the track, if he doesn’t turn it around, I’ll turn Hunter Clark into another midfield gun – maybe a returning Lachie Neale – and push Laird back into defence.
The other long-range trade I have in mind is Chad Warner to Patrick Dangerfield ahead of Round 14.
Of course, I’ll need to make a number of downgrades in order for this plan to work.
So who is the best downgrade option this round?
I’ll keep you updated on how I plan to make all the above work as we go but, this week, there are two standout downgrade options KFC SuperCoaches are likely to choose between.
The cheapest of the two is Lion James Madden ($123 DEF-FWD), whose dual-position status is just as appealing as his impressive 13-disposal, eight-intercept, 78-point performance against the Tigers.
But his job security is the concern. The Irishman, who has a breakeven of -51, was dropped after his debut game in Round 7 and Ryan Lester, Jack Payne and Noah Answerth are all due back over the next fortnight.
It’s a slightly different story with Bulldog Cody Weightman ($173k FWD), however.
Toby McLean will play in the VFL this week but there is no time frame Laitham Vandermeer’s knee injury and Adam Treloar will drop out of the side which smashed the Saints. And mature-age forward Anthony Scott, who suffered blurred vision in the win, must also been in some doubt.
Even though he’s a small-forward, the No. 15 pick from the 2019 draft could also be a more reliable on-field scorer in a free-flowing, high-scoring Bulldogs side.
Weightman, who averaged just 32 points from three debut-season games, has booted five goals in his two matches this year to record KFC SuperCoach scores of 75 and 98.
And in his three games before breaking back into the senior team, Weightman posted scores of 80, 116 and 82 in the VFL.
Unless you really need the cash, Weightman is the No. 1 option.
Staying on the Bulldogs, is Bailey Dale legit?
A very good question. I’ve always liked the way he’s moved and now he has a consistent role in Luke Beveridge’s side.
No, that’s not a joke.
Since Round 2, the 24-year-old has averaged 25 disposals, 521 metres gained, six score involvements and 101 KFC SuperCoach points.
Even in a year when the KFC SuperCoach forward line wasn’t a mess, we wouldn’t be able to ignore these numbers.
My only concern is that three of his four biggest scores of the season – 152, 129 and 95 – came in big wins against St Kilda, Gold Coast and North Melbourne.
And the Dogs have plenty of good scorers.
Yes, they will win more games than they lose but they won’t all be in such convincing fashion.
I’m close, but I’m not 100% sold just yet.
Back to Matt Flynn, how long should we hold?
The Giants ruck situation has played with the emotions of the KFC SuperCoach community.
At one stage, after Flynn was dropped - despite scoring well - and the Giants confirmed Shane Mumford was their No.1 ruckman, there was no way the 23-year-old was getting to $400k or would be there to cover Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy in Round 14.
But then he kept his spot when Mumford returned in Round 10, and booted two goals and took three contested marks to prove he can play in the same side.
Flynn finished with 94 points against the Eagles and, with a breakeven of 12, another similar score in Round 11 will see his price reach $380k by the club’s bye.
And it’s then a big call has to be made. Hawk Ned Reeves – who does have the same bye – scored 81 on debut and should also be there to cover for one of the big two in Round 14.
So, do you take the $260k and run, even if Flynn’s price would shoot past $400k with a few more games?
Again, it depends on your own situation, but I won’t be waiting for the extra $20-50k, I need the cash for the trade plan mentioned above.
Should we still be planning to trade Patrick Cripps at Carlton’s bye?
This is what many patient owners are planning to do, while they work on upgrading their rookies first. But there are signs he could turn it around. The Blues skipper has posted back-to-back 90s after four scores of 83 or less.
The most pleasing thing for owners would’ve been the AFL’s clanger leader recording just one against the Hawks.
But then does that actually make the 95-point score, given he also had 12 contested possessions and 10 tackles, a little concerning?
Maybe.
Give it two more weeks.
What about trading him in?
It’s true, $418k is a crazy price for a player who averaged 119 KFC SuperCoach points in 2018 and 117 a year later. And, sure, 95 is higher than what he’s priced at.
But do you really want a player averaging less than three figures in your ‘complete’ team? Ideally, no.
I get the thought that he may improve again after the week off but I’d like to see more.
There’s still value to be had at less than $500k if he can go big over the next two rounds.
But I’m not holding my breath.
Is Adam Cerra better option?
This week - yes. If you take out the injury-affected 15, and the horrible day – when the entire midfield was smashed - against the Blues in Round 3 and the young Docker has posted scores of 122, 120, 120, 88 and 102 this season.
That’s impressive scoring, especially when you add it to the 101-point average from Round 9 onwards last year.
He’s a little down the list for centre bounce attendance at Fremantle but he’s proven that doesn’t limited his impact on the game – and KFC SuperCoach score.
But can he average 110 from here? I have my doubts but there’s plenty of value in the up-and-coming star who boasts a balanced, all-round game.
There’s a definite need to jump on the value this season, but how many chances can you take?
So, is that a no on Zac Williams, then?
It’s not a no, but it’s not a yes yet, either.
Against the Hawks, Williams was back in defence - as he was for parts of the previous week against the Demons - and recorded season-highs for disposals (26), effective disposals (22), metres gained (764), intercepts (8), rebound-50s (7) and KFC SuperCoach points (124).
I don’t care what Carlton are paying him to be a defender, if he stays there and settles, it could be a win for KFC SuperCoach.
If you haven’t looked, he’s currently price at $398k. With a breakeven of 29, he won’t be under $400k for long, but he’s one to add to the bye-round watchlist.
Williams - Time in Position
R2-8 R9-10
CBA 27% 0%
Defence 3% 88%
Wing 0% 12%
Midfield 53% 0%
Forward 45% 0%
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