KFC SuperCoach 2021: Ultimate trade guide for Round 11
James Madden and Cody Weightman are the two standout KFC rookie picks this week. Champion Data’s expert digs into their stats. TRADE GUIDE
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There are a number of pressing issues for SuperCoaches ahead of Round 11, with none more important than Tom Powell.
The Kangaroos midfielder failed to exceed 50 points again last round and dropped by a further $25,100 in value. Another price drop is all but assured as he needs a score of 115 to keep his price. He must go ASAP!
SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL THIS WEEK’S TRADE TARGETS
Anthony Scott is another player that has peaked in price after scoring an injury-affected 18 points. He also suffered his first price fall of the season and with a break even of 93 points, you can expect his value to drop steadily over the coming weeks. Scott remains in some doubt to play in Friday night’s blockbuster clash after a head knock — in the event that he misses out entirely, you can easily hold him for another week.
James Rowe continues to tick along steadily, while Chad Warner is doing just enough to avoid significant price falls. Lachie Jones and Alec Waterman both returned last week, which will be more than handy as we head into the bye rounds. Tom Highmore was the medial sub for the Saints, but after that thrashing, he could also find himself back in the starting 22.
As we hone in on some trade down targets, Cody Weightman sits atop of the list, albeit at an elevated rookie price of $173,000.
He replaced Rhylee West in Round 9 and has scored 75 and 98 over the past two rounds. Weightman was heavily involved against St Kilda, finishing with 14 disposals, two goals and five score assists. He has been involved in 13 scoring chains inside the forward 50 – ranked equal-first at the club since Round 9. If he continues to impose himself in this way, then Luke
Beveridge will have no choice but to play him.
If you’re looking to save some funds, then Brisbane’s James Madden ticks that box, with the added bonus of DPP eligibility. He was lively against Richmond, finishing with 13 disposals, four intercept marks and eight intercept possessions. He also drifted forward to kick one goal.
In terms of job security, he should be fine in the short term. But we’re likely to see Noah Answerth and Ryan Lester return after the Lions’ bye – so keep that in mind before snapping him up.
STRANGE TWIST TO ZIEBELL’S SUPER SEASON
As SuperCoaches, we always look to gain an advantage over the rest of the competition and another way to do this is by taking analysis to another level.
Looking at scores in isolation is one thing, but to break them down by the time of the day the match is played is a completely different thing. For the purpose of this analysis, all games played in the 3.20pm timeslot on a Sunday are considered day games, while the 4.35pm timeslot on a Saturday is considered a night game.
Essentially, the guns perform no matter when or where the games are played, but Marcus Bontempelli is the most prolific scorer in day games – averaging 138.3 points. Brodie Grundy isn’t too far behind with 136.3 points per game, while the surprise packet is Darcy Parish in third place. His scores have boomed since moving into the midfield – averaging 129.5 points in day matches. Jack Macrae and Clayton Oliver also rank in the top 10 scorers.
TOP DAY GAME SCORERS
Marcus Bontempelli — 3 games, 138.3 av
Brodie Grundy — 4 games, 136.3 av
Darcy Parish — 4 games, 129.5 av
Cameron Guthrie — 4 games, 127.5 av
Jack Macrae — 3 games, 127.1 av
Clayton Oliver — 5 games, 124.7 av
Touk Miller — 5 games, 117.4 av
Aaron Hall — 3 games, 117.2 av
Joel Selwood — 4 games, 116.7 av
Ben Cunnington — 3 games, 116.5 av
If we turn our attention to night games, then it’s Max Gawn (136.6) that sits atop of the list. Teammate Oliver is second with 128.5 per game, while Macrae is next best with 126.9 points. Interestingly, the trio all play in Friday night’s blockbuster at the MCG, which makes picking a VC almost impossible.
Jack Ziebell ranks fourth for his output in night games, which is a real surprise considering he ranks 37th for scoring in day games. Looking ahead, his next four games are evenly split – two day and two night.
TOP NIGHT GAME SCORERS
Max Gawn — 5 games, 136.6 av
Clayton Oliver — 5 games, 128.5 av
Jack Macrae — 7 games, 126.9 av
Jack Ziebell — 6 games, 125.1 av
Nat Fyfe — 3 games, 123.8 av
Christian Salem — 4 games, 120.6 av
Brodie Grundy — 6 games, 120.5 av
Mitch Duncan — 4 games, 120.4 av
Marcus Bontempelli — 7 games, 118.6 av
Sam Walsh — 5 games, 117.5 av
Caleb Daniel is averaging 42 more points in night games compared to the day – the fourth-biggest differential of any player. Christian Salem is also more prolific at night – averaging 25.1 more points.
In contrast, Aaron Hall is a daytime specialist, averaging 49.2 more points in day games – the biggest differential of any player, although his numbers are slightly skewed by injury. Jy Simpkin (+37.1) and Tim Kelly (+29.4) are also performing better in day games.
BUMPER ROUND 11 TRADE GUIDE
- Al Paton
Max Gawn and Lachie Neale started 2021 as the only two players priced over $700,000 in KFC SuperCoach.
Now Brodie Grundy is the most expensive player at $659,400, Gawn has slipped to $619,100 and there are just 10 players in the $600,000-plus club.
If you want an indication of how unpredictable this season has been, the 11th-most expensive player in the game is Gold Coast’s Touk Miller ($597,000 MID), who is in 1 per cent of teams.
And just quietly Bomber Darcy Parish is coming with a bullet — he’s a No.13 on the list at $592k with the fourth-best five-round average in the competition (134).
To compete against the best, you need the best. But unless you had a crystal ball before Round 1 or a bottomless bank account, you can’t pick all the most expensive players.
Stalwarts like Neale and Jake Lloyd are nowhere to be found, so which top guns should be the top priority to get into our KFC SuperCoach teams?
Scroll down for our assessment plus some sneaky Round 11 bargains and this week’s best rookies.
THE BIG GUNS
Marcus Bontempelli $657,900 MID
The second-most expensive player in the game is on a run of seven consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons — and the past three are 155, 128 and 155. We always knew The Bont could stand up in the big moments and produce a monster score but this year he has added a layer of consistency that makes him true SuperCoach royalty.
Al’s verdict: There are a lot of high-scoring teammates to share the same SuperCoach pie but the Dogs are eating an awful lot of that Pie right now. His break even of 105 is very gettable but his next month includes games against the Dees, Geelong and West Coast before an easier run home — you could wait until after the Dogs’ Round 13 bye to grab him.
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Clayton Oliver $652,900 MID
The irrepressible Demons midfielder now leads the world for total KFC SuperCoach points in 2021 after an incredible 204-point effort against Adelaide. After a solid but not spectacular start to the year — averaging 113 over the first six rounds — Oliver has exploded in the past month with a 146-point average. His scores have increased every week in that time, so based on that trajectory he should score about 250 against the Dogs on Friday night. That might be a bit silly — he has averaged exactly 100 in his past three games against them — but with a break even of just 45 his price tag is still heading north.
Al’s verdict: Apart from one bad game when he was blanketed by master tagger Matt De Boer, Oliver has a lowest score this year of 114. A month ago he and Christian Petracca were about the same price and I could have traded in either. I went for Petracca, and Oliver has outscored him by more than 200 points in four weeks. You could call that a SuperCoach clanger. Tricky Round 14 bye is the only downside but he could score another 400 points before then.
Jarryd Lyons $646,200 MID
We all owe Lyons an apology for not picking him in more KFC SuperCoach teams. Despite averaging 122.5 for the season (137.3 over his past three) and posting a lowest score of 103, the Brisbane gun is in just 5 per cent of teams. He never gets tagged and just gets the job done every week with a minimum of stress — a vastly underrated quality in SuperCoach!
Al’s verdict: Picking a POD (point of difference player) usually comes with an element of risk, but Lyons is just about the safest pick in the game. Note the Lions have the same bye as the Bulldogs in Round 13.
Jack Macrae $621,500 MID
If any of these uber premiums can be said to offer value, it’s Macrae, who has dropped $45k over the past four weeks despite averaging 119 in that time. He and Lyons are the only two players who have posted at least 100 points every week and his 149 against the Saints was a season-high. He averages 122 from his past three against the Demons, too, so pencil in another great score next round.
Al’s verdict: One I got right, locking in Macrae from the start. Oliver has now scored three more points than him for the year but Jack is the ultimate set and forget player. SuperCoach Plus projects him dropping under $590k after the Dogs’ bye but you’re wouldn’t regret getting him earlier.
Cam Guthrie $609,400 MID
Guthrie was on track for another monster score when he went down with a shoulder injury against the Suns.The good news for the Geelong star — and his 24,000 KFC SuperCoach owners — is he returned to the field and the Cats are hopeful he will be fine to play Collingwood this week. The bad news for the rest of us is he still posted 98 points, only dropped $7300 and his break even is 129 — a very achievable score based on his 125.4 four-round average.
Al’s verdict: The Cats’ bye is only a week away. Make him a priority target for Round 13.
Hugh McCluggage $603,400 MID
How many Brisbane PODs can we pick? McCluggage is in even fewer teams than Lyons (4 per cent) despite the fact he hasn’t scored under 100 since Round 3 as his combined ball-winning ability and scoreboard impact — evident in his draft year — translates into big KFC SuperCoach numbers.
Al’s verdict: More of a risk than the other names on this list. You can’t argue with a five-round average of 123.7 but the Lions have won all of those games.
Callum Mills $577,900 DEF
Mills is an honourary member of this elite group as the clear No.1 scorer in defence after 10 rounds — 60 points ahead of Rory Laird (Daniel Rich, Jake Lloyd and Sam Docherty round out a surprising top five). Last year his average was boosted by one insane game (173 points v Richmond), this year he’s gone over 120 four times and has only three scores under 100 — 93, 87 and 84.
Al’s verdict: If you picked Mills over Lloyd in Round 1, well played. He is projected to climb to $600k before Sydney’s Round 14 bye but adding another defender with that week off could cause serious headaches.
Note: If you’re wondering why there are only six players in this top 10, I’m leaving out ruck kings Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy and injured stars Josh Dunkley and Patrick Dangerfield.
OTHER TRADE TARGETS
Lachie Whitfield $498,700 DEF
This was the game Whitfield watchers were waiting for — 29 disposals, 10 marks, a goal and 110 KFC SuperCoach points, his first ton of the season. He has dropped under $500k — down $63k from his starting value — and has a break even of 107 against the Lions this week before the Giants’ Round 12 bye. He shapes as an idea trade target heading into Round 13.
Isaac Heeney $347,000 FWD
Almost 9000 coaches traded in Heeney last round but plenty more were holding out to see one more game from the Swans star, and they would have been happy with what they saw against the Dockers. Heeney didn’t shoot the lights out but showed he could be a valuable contributor when things aren’t all going the Swans’ way, scoring 86 points from 24 disposals and one goal. His value only increased by $4900 but with a break even of just 11 against the Blues, he won’t be in the bargain bin for long.
Jack Steele $563,000 MID
Speaking of performing against the tide, Steele was one of the few St Kilda players who could hold their heads up on Saturday night. His score of 99 resulted in a $6200 price drop and a very appealing price for a player averaging 112 for the season and with plenty of upside. His break even is 120 so you don’t have to pounce this week — unless you think he can follow the lead of players like Darcy Parish (152), Andy McGrath (123) and Zach Merrett (117) and rack up a huge score against the Kangaroos on Saturday.
Christian Petracca $525,100 MID
Petracca has had a quiet month by his standards, averaging 95.5 over his past four games, but his 116 against the Crows was his best score since Round 6 and we know what he is capable of. You wouldn’t pick him over Oliver but at $106k under his starting price he’s a value option in the midfield.
Jordan Ridley $484,600 DEF
He’s not the kick-in king he was in the first month of the season but if you’ve had Ridley in your sights for an upgrade in defence, he has bottomed out in price after gaining $3200 on the weekend with a second consecutive score of 105. He is currently the 11th-ranked defender on total points but looks a safe bet at a great price.
Caleb Daniel $488,800 DEF
Another cheap defender who has hit a hot vein of form with four tons on the trot after a slow start to the season. He and Ridley both have a Round 13 bye so it’s really a toss of the coin between the pair.
Bailey Dale $479,900 FWD
We know Bevo loves to spin the magnets and moving Dale to the backline this season has been a masterstroke. What odds would you have gotten at the start of the year that he would be the third-ranked forward in KFC SuperCoach for total points after 10 rounds? He jumped ahead of the likes of Jarman Impey and Nick Hind with a 152-point effort against the Saints that featured 21 kicks. He has a break even of 49 and is in just 2 per cent of teams.
Sean Darcy $549,500 RUC
We’re not advocating a trade but the young Freo giant deserves a shout out for his 124-point three-round average that ranks him ahead of KFC SuperCoach superstar Max Gawn (who is averaging 117 in that time). He has been a superb SuperCoach Draft selection if you missed the big two!
Mitch Duncan $581,100 MID
Duncan is one to watch after he was subbed out of Saturday’s game against Gold Coast just before halftime. He had already amassed 73 points to that stage and is having a brilliant season, averaging 119 points a game in the first nine rounds. He is set to drop in price but we won’t see him again until after Geelong’s Round 12 bye.
ROOKIE WATCH
James Madden $123,900 DEF/FWD
Brisbane’s Irish recruit improved on his 47 points on debut with a 78 against the Tigers including a stunning running goal. That should keep him in the team and it’s worth noting that while his two games came three rounds apart, he played both games as a replacement for Darcy Gardiner, who missed Round 7 under the AFL’s concussion protocols but is set to be sidelined for a lot longer this time after having shoulder surgery last week.
Cody Weightman $173,700 FWD
The several thousand coaches who went early on the Bulldogs forward after his first game (75) would have been over the moon with his 98-point return on Saturday night. He’s not cheap for a rookie — and the Dogs won’t win by 111 points every week — but you can only go on the evidence we’ve seen and he’s a livewire who impacts the scoreboard. Weightman has the lowest break even in the comp (-70) and is projected to make $54,000 this week.
Ned Reeves $123,900 RUCK
The bench ruck debate got a lot more interesting on the weekend with popular R3 Matt Flynn scoring well again, this time playing alongside Shane Mumford. If Leon Cameron keeps that setup it’s going to deliver a lot more dollars to Flynn owners, and possibly some relief in Round 14 when he would provide cover for Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn. But our hands may be forced if we want to trade him down to a cheap playing ruckman after the 211cm Reeves scored 82 on debut. He’ll be on the bubble coming off Hawthorn’s bye in Round 13 so wait to see if he keeps his spot. The good news is he will also be available for selection in Round 14.
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