KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s verdict on the lineball calls in the forward line
Devon Smith or Jack Steven? Aiden Bonar or Max King? And can you really overlook Dusty? The Phantom solves your head-to-head dilemmas in the forward line.
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Can’t decide between two players? Having trouble with the rookie selections? The Phantom runs the rule over the key dilemmas in the forward line.
Jack Steven (GEEL $361,700) v Devon Smith (ESS $335,800)
Forget last year.
Of course, you cannot say this about every player coming off a disappointing season but the versions of Steven and Smith we saw in 2019 were alternate ones.
Steven played just seven matches in his last year at St Kilda, taking time away from the club to deal with mental health issues.
And when he was on the park, Steven spent plenty of time forward, averaging 19 disposals per game – five less than his average over the previous five seasons.
The fall was a big one but it was partly due to the peak of which he fell from.
Steven played 22 games in four of the previous six seasons and averaged 100 SuperCoach points or more in three of them.
In 2013, thanks to three scores of 150 or more, the now 29-year-old finished the year as the seventh-ranked player in the competition.
And, despite a minor calf injury in January, a fit and refreshed Steven has impressed in his first pre-season at the Cats.
After averaging 90 points and winning Essendon’s best-and-fairest in his first year at the club, it was a persistent knee injury which restricted Smith in the first two months of last year.
From Round 16 onwards in 2018, the 26-year-old averaged 25 disposals, nine tackles and 107 points per game.
Before knee surgery wiped out his season completely in May last year, Smith, the competition’s No. 1 tackler in 2018, averaged 2.5 tackles less per game in the opening eight rounds, and finished with 20 disposals or more in just two matches.
But, again, let’s forget last year.
Smith is fit, training well and set to give the Bombers’ midfield a big boost in Round 1 against the Dockers, after declaring his role is likely to be “a little bit more mid than forward” in 2020.
And that could be the deciding factor.
Sure there’s a Tim Kelly-sized hole in Geelong’s midfield but there’s more-than-enough talent at the Cats to fill the void, with skipper Joel Selwood even hinting he’ll be back on the inside this year.
Will Steven be more midfield than half-forward? It’s hard to be sure, especially in the first half of the year.
THE VERDICT: Smith. At this stage, it appears he’ll be the one with a bigger midfield role.
Dustin Martin (RICH $543,000) v Michael Walters (FRE $547,200)
Is this really a debate?
Can you really overlook the dual Norm Smith Medallist, who tallied 22 disposals, four goals and 137 points in last year’s grand final?
I’m not going to say yes but the argument is, at least, worth listening to.
Martin averaged 100 points per game last year, his lowest since 2014.
And it coincides directly with his time as a forward.
The Brownlow Medallist spent 43 per cent of game-time in 2019 forward, the highest percentage since 2014 – a year played just 29.9 per cent as a midfielder.
Was he sore? Did the Tigers need another target while Tom Lynch warmed up? Or is he just too good inside-50?
A mix of everything, really.
But as the Tigers got going, so did Martin.
Including the finals, Richmond won its final 12 games of the year and Martin averaged 115 points per game in the final eight matches.
But back to his 100-point mark. Only two SuperCoach-eligible forwards, in a pool which has lost dual-position stars Patrick Dangerfield, Tim Kelly, Josh Dunkley and Rowan Marshall, averaged more.
One of them is Giant Lachie Whitfield – an automatic selection – and the other is Walters.
In 2019, the mercurial star played 22 games – after missing nine in the previous two years through injury and suspension – and added 13 points to his average, after posting 12 SuperCoach tons.
And with a new coach – or one that isn’t Ross Lyon – maybe there’s no reason to not trust the 29-year-old anymore.
The argument against Martin doesn’t suggest avoiding him completely but one that banks on the star Tiger starting slow again this season.
But can you be sure that happens again? More so than you are Walters averaging 100 points per game for just the second time in what will be his 12th season in the competition?
Ask yourself these questions.
THE VERDICT: Martin. At the start of the year, the aim is to pick as many players who will finish among the topscorers in their position. Outside of the ruck, Martin is almost your safest bet, even if he starts slow.
Aiden Bonar (NM $202,800) v Max King (StK $123,900)
In the only TAC Cup game of his draft year, which was ruined by an ACL injury, King tallied 19 disposals, nine marks, 8.5 and 179 SuperCoach points.
The 19-year-old’s debut season at the Saints was ruined, too but not before he could boot 11 goals in five impressive VFL appearances.
He then put the icing on a terrific pre-season to date, finishing with four goals in St Kilda’s intra-club hitout on Thursday.
Everyone is excited. St Kilda fans, teammates and SuperCoaches. Rightly so, too.
Even coach Brett Ratten declared “he’s pretty likely” for Round 1 on SEN this week.
But what’s the catch?
He’s still a key-forward – only the elite are consistent SuperCoach scorers.
And he’s a young one, who is yet to make his senior debut.
Sure, King is as talented as they come but he’s not the “big powerful unit” – coach Rhyce Shaw’s words – who is ready to step straight into his team’s midfield.
And that’s what Bonar is.
The highly-rated 20-year-old, who was drafted at pick No. 11 in 2017 despite two previous knee reconstructions, played just six games in his two years at GWS, spending most of his time forward.
But there’s been no harder engine room to crack than the Giants’ in recent seasons.
Bonar showed his wares as a big-bodied midfielder in the NEAFL, however, averaging 18 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six tackles and 94 points per game in 2019.
“He’s a really exciting talent and I can see the reason he was picked up No. 11. He’s super exciting, super powerful and hopefully plays a big part in our midfield this year,” Shaw said last week.
THE VERDICT: Bonar. If you’ve got the cash, it’s Bonar for an on-field spot. Otherwise King is perfect for the bench.
Chayce Jones (Adel $271,500) – Yes or No?
How long do you have?
It might not be a full-blown Clayton Oliver second-year breakout – they rarely happen. But the signs, which often point to a scoring spike, are there for Adelaide’s top pick from the 2018 draft.
He might have made his debut in Round 1 last year, but it wasn’t until the final-round clash with the Bulldogs when Jones was given the opportunity to make his mark.
After appearing at five centre bounces in the loss to Collingwood a week earlier, Jones attended 11 against the Bulldogs and tallied 18 disposals, eight contested possessions and four clearances.
But he was still equally as influential forward of centre, finishing with five inside 50s, two goals and two goal assists to post a career-high 86 SuperCoach points
Given the 19-year-old’s outstanding junior career, the numbers are not surprising.
Playing predominantly as a midfielder at the under-18 national carnival, Jones averaged 21 disposals, 11 contested possessions, seven tackles and 109 SuperCoach points per game.
And he produced similar numbers in his first five games in Adelaide’s SANFL side, following his demotion in Round 5.
The Tasmanian averaged 22 disposals, six clearances, five tackles and 104 points before spending more time forward through the middle of the year.
But that won’t be the case in 2020.
The Crows’ midfield needs to be refreshed and Jones, after winning both of the Adelaide’s 2km time trials and adding significant muscle to his 180cm frame, is the one likely to give it the much-needed new look.
THE VERDICT: Yes. SuperCoaches have picked Darcy Moore ($239k) and Allen Christensen ($267k) as expensive cash cows in the past two years for output and job-security reasons. Jones might also be that pick – with a higher scoring-ceiling, however.