Doctor’s Orders: Our best and worst trades of 2019, and what we learned
Even top SuperCoach players make mistakes. The experts at Doctor SuperCoach look back at their best and worst trades of 2019 — and the lessons from each.
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As we head towards Round 21, we have reached a time in the season where trades are scarce and best saved for injuries or the late grand final push.
As the weekdays drag between rounds, we find ourselves reflecting on the season that was.
Looking back and learning from successes and failures plays a big part in improving at SuperCoaches, so analysing some key moves that were made is incredibly important.
The experts at Doctor SuperCoach have provided their best and worst trades for the season, along with their rank for reference.
OUR WORST TRADES
TERRIFYING GLUE (RANK: 1124)
“Pistol” has had a solid season thus far, just falling out of the top 1000 this week. However, even the best of us all fall victim to the evil temptations of burn men such as Tom Rockliff.
Following an injury-affected 12-point effort in Round 8, Tom Atkins was victim to Geelong’s constant late withdrawals in Round 9. In a panic, the trade to Rockliff seemed justifiable at the time, however, Atkins returned for a season-high 115 in Round 10, while Rockliff scored just 103 in Round 9 before injuring his hamstring and scoring 72 in Round 10. Ouch!
While Atkins’ large score was just bad luck, injury-prone players like Rockliff are known as such for a reason. Stay away from the injury-prone burn men!
CHEEZO’S CHAMPIONS (RANK: 3176)
It took for an unlucky concussion to Dockers star Nat Fyfe to guide “Cheezo” towards his worst trade for the season.
The talk of concussion potentially affecting Fyfe for several weeks was strong as he was rested for Round 4. This opened up the opportunity for Cheezo to jump on the hot Lachie Neale, who scored 140 in his debut for Cheezo’s Champions before managing just 91 the following week and leaking cash.
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To cap off this unfortunate move, Fyfe returned to average 123 over the next month, before being traded back in at a $7000 profit. Lesson learned here? Always hold your premiums unless the injury threatens to last up to a month.
GEM HUNTER (RANK: 119)
This trade was very popular, and plenty of coaches will be feeling the same pain as Gem Hunter each week.
Choosing James Sicily in Round 9 over the likes of Bachar Houli may seem like a blunder just in hindsight; however, the signs were there for coaches earlier than we think. Prior to this Round 9 trade, Sicily had four scores of 100 or fewer, to go with four 100-plus scores. Houli at this time had three tons and two sub-100 scores.
This looks like a 50-50 decision that went wrong, but had patience been applied, the following fortnight made it abundantly clear on who to trade in. With problem positions such as D6 this season, it’s always best to allow as much time as possible to get the most information we can. Trading in a D6 before the byes is something to consider holding off on next season.
JB DRSC (RANK: 126)
It is difficult to judge a SuperCoach player for trading in a previously durable player, as JB did with Lachie Whitfield prior to his broken collarbone. However, the second aspect to this trade is a cardinal sin! To fund the upgrade to Lachie Whitfield, JB moved Reilly O’Brien to Robbie Young of St Kilda after he had played just one game!
Young got a second game and eventually a third, however the impatience has cost JB forward cover, as well as stunting the cash generation in his team. Waiting a week for Whitfield and being patient with O’Brien was probably a better choice, especially in combination of downgrading to a risky rookie. Plus, never go early on your rookies.
BEST TRADES
TERRIFYING GLUE (RANK: 1124)
Keeping a cool head while carrying an underperforming premium is one of the hardest aspects of SuperCoach, however, if you are able to identify why your player has digressed and conclude that the trend is likely to continue, you may get the jump on those that keep the faith.
Pistol realised his error in starting Angus Brayshaw very early and amended this by trading him to Lachie Neale in Round 5, netting him over 200 points in just five weeks following the trade.
When dealing with an underperforming premium, do some digging to learn the reasons why they are underperforming. In this case a role change and a lack of centre bounce attendances — issues that seemed likely to continue long-term — were the catalyst for a quick flick on Angus Brayshaw, not to be confused with a player that was just down in form.
CHEEZO’S CHAMPIONS (RANK: 3176)
Cash generation is always an underrated aspect of SuperCoach and timing of when to downgrade those cash cows is incredibly important. An example of how a perfectly timed downgrade can set up your season was when Cheezo moved Liam Baker on in Round 14, after he had made more than 200K at his bye, to Dylan Clarke — who has now nearly made 200K himself.
Baker went on to fall 30K weeks after the trade, while Clarke has, and will, continue to offer excellent bench cover. Being cut-throat with rookies and identifying when to move them on is crucial to a successful season.
GEM HUNTER (RANK: 119)
This opportunistic coach was able to sense their trade situation was more comfortable than others around their rank, and therefore offered a rebuttal to the earlier comments regarding an injured premium only missing one week.
Max Gawn’s late omission in Round 16 was the worst-kept secret in the AFL and the SuperCoach competition split in to two — those who had cover and those who didn’t. The decision to trade in cover or cop the doughnut was crucial and, with trades in hand, Gem Hunter swapped Gawn for Goldstein and has yet to suffer for their decision to jump off the second-best ruck in SuperCoach.
In fact, this move has secured Gem Hunter 138 points on those who took the zero Gawn score. Using luxury trades this early is always risky, but not always the wrong move when there is serious ground to be made up.
JB DRSC (RANK: 126)
To explain the best trade for JB, we need to discuss four earlier trades made by the coach. In Round 5, JB moved Zak Butters and Will Setterfield to Reilly O’Brien and Sydney Stack, displaying the earlier discussed optimal rookie downgrade timing.
Having done two downgrades in one week set up the ability to make two upgrades just a couple of weeks later, by trading Tom Liberatore and Jack Scrimshaw to Josh Kelly and Nat Fyfe.
The takeaway from these moves is that planning sometimes weeks in advance makes decisions to go an upgrade behind the competition a lot easier to justify. With more time comes more data, and with more data, better choices. After Fyfe’s concussion and subsequent price drop, coupled with Liberatore’s drop in form and Kellys return, JB was able to wheel and deal four players at the perfect time; bringing in two cheap premiums and two of the best rookies for the year, setting up his season and current rank.
Originally published as Doctor’s Orders: Our best and worst trades of 2019, and what we learned
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