AFL Moneyball 2022: All the latest in trades, free agency and player contracts
Last year’s trade and free agency period was slammed for lack of movement. There is still a third of the 2022 season to go, but clubs are already expecting a frenzy of movement.
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Collingwood will attempt to reap the rewards of its controversial 2020 trade period clean-out when it targets multiple new players in this year’s exchange period.
The Magpies are shaping up as one of the biggest players in October with the rejuvenated Magpies eyeing Brisbane swingman Dan McStay and GWS Giants’ speedster Bobby Hill.
Last year’s trade period was lambasted for the lack of player movement, this year’s annual exchange is shaping up as an extravaganza with clubs making moves for Luke Jackson (Melbourne), Tim Taranto (GWS), Rory Lobb (Fremantle), Karl Amon (Port Adelaide) Tanner Bruhn (GWS), Matt Crouch (Adelaide), Aaron Francis (Essendon) and Paddy Dow (Carlton).
The Dockers are prepared to make a big-money offer to return Jackson home to Western Australia, while the Bulldogs are eyeing Lobb, the Cats want a midfielder such as Bruhn, and GWS are fighting to keep Taranto from joining Richmond or St Kilda.
Collingwood has also re-emerged as an appealing destination club for recruiting targets after soaring up the ladder in McRae’s first year in charge, chalking up its seventh-straight win of the season on Saturday over North Melbourne to sit fifth late on Sunday.
The Magpies have salary cap room to further bolster their list after making bold calls to cut star ball winner Adam Treloar and goal kicker Jaidyn Stephenson two years ago despite fierce fan backlash.
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McStay, who can play at both ends, would provide another strong-marking target in the same vein as Brody Mihocek, while Hill could be picked up for a late pick and add some speed and polish in the forward half.
But there could be more shocks in store with ace ruckman Brodie Grundy linked to a move to Port Adelaide or GWS and Jordan De Goey’s contract talks put on hold after playing up in Bali.
Former Power and Lions’ midfielder Tom Rockliff said Grundy, who signed a $950,000-a-year deal to stay at the Magpies, “will not be at Collingwood next year” as the club was “happy to part ways”.
At Port Adelaide Grundy, 28, could replace Scott Lycett using some of the money from Amon’s departure.
Dual All-Australian Grundy, who is from South Australia, has five more years to run on his blockbuster contract, meaning Collingwood would almost certainly have to pay some of his wage if he departed.
But Collingwood has not told Grundy to start searching for a new club as the star ruckman prepares to make his return from a knee injury in the final few weeks of the season.
In his absence twin towers Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox have flourished this season, while young 197cm tall Aiden Begg also broke through for senior action this year.
Collingwood coach McRae said he was unsure how he would structure the spine when Grundy was available after going down with a serious posterior cruciate ligament injury against Essendon in Round 6.
Cameron said he was happy to sacrifice his own game when Grundy returned.
“He’s obviously a great ruckman and if that means me going back to a forward role or whatever it may look like, I’m happy just to play my role in the team,” Cameron said on Triple M.
“We will let the coaches deal with that in a few weeks’ time.”
The Cats also have room to bolster their midfield for next season after moving into a $4 second favourite for the flag with a comfortable win over Melbourne on Thursday night.
Geelong could swoop on local product Bruhn or Melbourne free agent Angus Brayshaw.
How player agency landed in hot water
A leading player management company could be fined for breaching strict rules on when they can speak to prospective AFL footballers.
The breach came as club list bosses and recruiting managers joined player agents in descending on wet and woolly Gold Coast early this week to watch the AFL Under-16 Championships.
The weather made it difficult for the footballers to shine but the talk of the championships was the likely incoming sanction from the AFL Players’ Association for an agent who allegedly broke the rules.
Agents are not supposed to speak to a player, or their parents, until October 1 in their 16th year and can’t officially sign them until immediately after the draft in the year before their own eligibility.
Powerful player manager Paul Connors received a $7500 fine ($5000 suspended) in August 2020 for running a two-day camp in Sorrento for more than 20 prospects in the 2020 and 2021 drafts.
The camp was designed to help kids robbed of football by the Covid-19 pandemic get in front of AFL recruiters, but the problem was at least five of the participants were not already Connors Sports clients.
Clause 4.1 of the agents’ code of conduct prohibits them from providing a benefit, or other thing of value, to a player in anticipation of the player signing a standard player agent agreement.
The 2024 draft isn’t considered as strong at this early stage as next year’s talent-laden crop, which features exciting trio Harley Reid, Nick Watson and Zane Duursma, brother of Port Adelaide’s Xavier and Yasmin.
Former Hawk Luke McCabe’s son, Will, is also eligible for the 2023 edition and played at the under-16 championships as an ‘over-ager’.
Will, who is a Hawthorn father-son prospect, starred at centre half-back for South Australia but plays as a midfielder or on a wing for Central Districts.
Among the top prospects in the under-16s class are Vic Metro’s Jagga Smith, Lucas McInerney and Levi Ashcroft — son of Marcus and brother of potential 2021 No. 1 pick Will — plus Vic Country’s Finn O’Sullivan.
Ex-Crow Scott Welsh’s son, Tyler, is also on track to be drafted in two years’ time and father-son eligible.
How Jackson trade can set off moves
Fremantle is growing increasingly confident of securing star Melbourne ruck-forward Luke Jackson in the domino that would send Rory Lobb and Griffin Logue across the country to rival clubs.
Officially Jackson has yet to make his decision, despite more talks between his management and the club this week, where it was made clear he has all the time in the world.
But Fremantle believes they are on the verge of landing their man, with Jackson keen to return home to Perth at some stage given his tight-knit family.
The only decision is whether this is the season to return for the premiership hero.
Having gone so deep in the season everything points to a departure, even if Jackson’s camp believes he could wake up one day and decide he needs to sign on.
Jackson would only leave for family reasons given the Dockers deal is significant and long-term but not massively more than the Demons deal on a per-season basis.
Melbourne chief executive Gary Pert told News Corp on Thursday the Demons were not putting any demands on Jackson or free agent Angus Brayshaw about a decision before the end of the year.
“We made it clear to Jacko and Gus Brayshaw and other players including Clarry (Clayton Oliver) before he re-signed we will work with your managers and there is no date or no hurry.
“No one is putting pressure on them. We would love to think this is the club they want to be at. Some managers and players don’t want to get into the last year of a contract and others don’t mind.”
Pert believes the long-term deals handed to Christian Petracca (2029) and Oliver (2030) will help Melbourne’s bid to become a destination club.
“When you look at the age of our really core players, they have amazing long careers ahead of them. To have those players locked in long-term means we are so excited to be a part of what is a potential era of success and it gives confidence to other players to say we all want to be part of it. When someone like Clarry signs it’s good for the whole list.”
If Jackson found his way to Fremantle it would mean they could trade Lobb to the Western Bulldogs for an early draft pick.
It would also mean Logue would find a home on a long-term lucrative deal with his manager Colin Young saying on Thursday the Dockers had many key position players they could fall back on.
Cats chips in
Geelong chief executive Steve Hocking has made clear the Cats will be on the march in the free agency, trade and draft space in the off-season.
The Cats are understood to have a reasonable amount of cap space, with decisions ahead on Luke Dahlhaus and Shaun Higgins who would take pay cuts if they did get another season.
Joel Selwood’s decision on his future will be at the end of the year after regular discussions but his recent capacity to play multiple positions and his unrivalled leadership mean he surely will get his say on a decision.
The Cats have their own array of draft picks and two extra third rounders (Carlton and Brisbane) as well as Hawthorn’s fourth rounder.
GWS mid Tanner Bruhn came from local club Newtown and Chilwell and is considering a move home, but to be honest the Cats have many fingers in many pies.
They have expressed some early interest in free agent Jordan De Goey to his camp but believe Tim Taranto will move to a Melbourne club despite strong interest.
Hocking said on Thursday: “We will be active in the trade period but we will also do quite a bit of work in the draft.”
Brandan Parfitt is close to a new deal while Esava Ratugolea is a required player.
Amon outrage a bad take
The outrage over Karl Amon leaving Port Adelaide is footy’s stupidest hot take.
The free agent will leave — with Hawthorn in front of a field including St Kilda, Melbourne and Carlton — and secure the Power a first-round compo pick.
And they will immediately slot a player into wing and half back from a long list that includes Xavier Duursma, Lachie Jones, Miles Bergman, Josh Sinn, Jackson Mead, Willem Drew or even veteran Travis Boak as the youngsters take over the midfield.
So they save $600,000 a season and don’t lose much in the position.
The money they save might ultimately see them have the cash for a crack next year at Jason Horne-Francis (his stepfather is former Port player Fabian Francis) or St Kilda’s Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
Tigers keeping Baker in their sight with offer
Richmond has made Liam Baker an offer it will be hard to refuse, ponying up on a fair deal that could yet see him ignoring West Coast’s overtures.
The Tigers aren’t in a hurry for a decision given their big calls on the likes of Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards and Kane Lambert.
Shai Bolton’s management is over in Melbourne in coming weeks and is open to a new deal for the superstar, who only signed on again last year.
Throw a dart and you might hit bullseye on Dustin Martin’s future because every single possibility has been couched, with some commentators declaring he is staying only to change their minds and state he is going.
One school of thought is that Martin might decide at 31 years of age he has had enough and might just walk away.
It seems unlikely given how much he loves football — and how much he is owed on his contract — but regardless the Tigers should offer him the Alex Rance summer of 2016.
He won the club championship and the club gave him three months off to decompress and head overseas.
Like Martin, he was a fitness freak who was always going to return in elite shape.
It might be the kind of circuit-breaker that will allow him to work through his grief and find his love of football again.
Blues start talks to lock down promising forward
Jesse Motlop’s three-goal haul against St Kilda last week gave Carlton fans an exciting glimpse into the future as the Blues begin work on extending the small forward’s tenure.
The 19-year-old still has another year to run on his first deal, but the club is understood to have already started preliminary discussions and will progress those talks even further in the coming months.
Motlop has played five games so far this season, with his performance against the Saints his best outing so far, strengthening the club’s belief they may have unearthed a draft bargain.
The Blues were under pressure to make the most of their one live pick in last year’s national draft, having offloaded what ended up being pick eight to Fremantle (as part of the Adam Cerra) and pick 48 to Western Bulldogs (for Lewis Young).
But the list management team, who have had some good wins in recent years, would be content with Motlop’s progress since they chose him as pick 27 in last year’s draft.
While an extension to his current deal might yet take some time, Motlop has adapted well to his new home with the Blues.
He shares a house with Jack Carroll, Corey Durdin and Tom Williamson, who recently stepped away from the club, and looks to have an exciting future ahead of him in Navy Blue.
Sam: Hands off Worpel
Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell wants to retain James Worpel despite him falling out of favour during what’s been an indifferent season for the tough on-baller.
Worpel will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery and will finish the year having played only 11 games and averaging a career-low 15 disposals.
Those numbers are a far cry from the 23-year-old’s best and fairest-winning 2019 season — his second in the AFL — when he gathered almost 27 touches and more than six clearances per game.
Worpel, a former Geelong Falcon, grew up in Bannockburn and has interest from the Cats, who are looking to inject more youth into their midfield.
The Hawks have also made changes to their on-ball rotation this season, with Jai Newcombe flourishing, Conor Nash continuing to progress and top-10 draftee Josh Ward showing promise.
But Worpel remains in Hawthorn’s plans, coach Mitchell said.
“He’s an important player and right in our perfect age demographic,” Mitchell said.
“He’s a proven, A-grade player at AFL level and … he hasn’t had the season that he would like, but he’s going to be a very, very good AFL player for us in the future and we’re looking forward to seeing his best next season.
“Hewas out of form for a bit, then he came back into the side, worked really hard, got his confidence back and had a really good performance (in round 15).
“Then he started the game (against the Giants) really strongly, then obviously now he’s going to be out for the season.
“He should take some confidence that he’s got the resilience to go out of form, then bring it back and play really good AFL football again, off the back of a couple of poorer performances.”
Why Irish Giant might still pull through
Senior opportunities have been scarce for Irish Giant Callum Brown, so he knew he had to grab it when his number was called last week.
Brown kicked four goals against the Hawks in just his fourth AFL game — including one as an unused medical substitute — after being a late inclusion for Lachie Keeffe.
The athletic 21-year-old, who added six tackles and six score involvements, is in his final year of category B rookie eligibility and spent most of the VFL season as a defender.
That means Greater Western Sydney must promote Brown if his career is to continue at the Giants.
Early discussions have started on a new deal for him and he kept his spot for GWS’s clash with Port Adelaide on Saturday, with the final seven rounds crucial for him.
It’s been a difficult apprenticeship for Brown and others in his position through the Covid-19 pandemic, but his commitment looks set to pay off.
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Originally published as AFL Moneyball 2022: All the latest in trades, free agency and player contracts
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